BENGAL ‘KHELA’ HEADED FOR A TIE-BREAKER!

Sometimes, it makes sense to be a fence sitter and more so when such an important and make-or-mar ‘khela’ is on in West Bengal. One is reminded of the epic Wimbledon 2019 Men's Single Final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, which was among the greatest of all time not only in the annals of Wimbledon, but in the history of tennis. A roller-coaster match, which Djokovic won 7-6 (7-6), 1-6, 7-6 (7-4), 4-6, 13-12 (7-3) after a gruelling 4 hours and 57 minutes!  Besides being the longest Wimbledon final, it was also the first ever deciding-set tiebreak at 12-12 in singles in the tournament’s history. 

West Bengal elections, spread over eight phases, also makes it the longest ever polls in the state. Unlike the Wimbledon 2019 match when the two giants were pitted against each other, the fight this time in this eastern state is between Trinamool Congress, which has set its sights on the third term, and the country’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was a greenhorn in the West Bengal politics till a few years ago, until it announced its arrival in the 2019 parliamentary elections when it won 18 of the 42 seats in the state. Since then, there has been no looking back for the BJP as it is racing menacingly to mount a formidable challenge to its opponent.  

Interestingly, the Congress and the Left Front, which have ruled the state for 55 years between them, are not in the picture this time. So much so that the top leadership of both the parties chose to stay away from the polls, leaving the campaigning to their local leaders! The Gandhi siblings – Rahul and Priyanka – were conspicuous by their absence in the state. Rahul, who addressed only one rally in the state on April 14 and that too when half of the eight-phase polls was already over, later decided to suspend campaign in the wake of rising Corona cases. Similarly, the ageing central leadership of the Left Front gave a complete miss to the campaigning in the state. 

Why did both the Congress and the Left chicken out and not even put up a fight in Bengal? Were they scared of the imminent humiliating rout or was it a tactical ploy to back out?

The sole agenda of all the parties both at the central and state level is to defeat the Hindu party which is growing in strength, resulting in a decapacitated Opposition. That also explains the alliance between political parties which were not long ago cutting each other’s throats. The renewed bonhomie between the Congress and the Left parties in Assam and West Bengal is not based on any principle, but largely out of the fear of a complete annihilation. The coming together of the two in Assam and West Bengal while fighting each other in Kerala is self-explanatory. 

Aware that they will not be able to pose any challenge to the BJP, both the Congress and the Left chose to remain silent warriors as part of a strategy and let the Trinamool slug it out. The grand design is not to allow the Muslim vote to be split. All the three – the Congress, Left Front and now Trinamool -- have played the ‘Tushtikaran’ (appeasement) politics to stay afloat in the state.  According to the 2011 Census, Muslim population in West Bengal is 2.47 crore (27.01 percent) of total 9.13 crore. In 10 years since, one can safely assume that the percentage of the Muslim population will be at least 30 percent, if not more. All the three parties have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Muslim vote in the past as the minority community chose to vote en masse for any party which offered maximum concessions.  That they wield influence in close to 100 of the 294 assembly seats makes them a powerful bloc. 

As things stand today, arithmetic favours Trinamool, but it has been seen in the past that sometimes chemistry wins over arithmetic. Whatever is the election outcome; this bout will produce an intense seesaw battle. Who played the better rally will be known when the election results are declared.

As long as the BJP was a marginal player, all the three parties tried to outdo each other in soliciting the Muslim vote. Over the years, the Muslim voter has also become smart. Rather than putting all their eggs in one basket, read political party, the Muslims have been voting for the candidates instead which is why there has been a gradual increase in the number of Muslim candidates put up by all the political parties and the BJP is also no exception. The BJP has fielded nine Muslim candidates this time as compared to 42 by the Trinamool. 

But the arithmetic has changed since the BJP juggernaut rolled in the state. With both the Congress and the Left teetering on the brink, there is a growing realisation that a dent in the Muslim vote will serve the interests of the BJP only. Therefore, the two have decided to go slow sending out a clear signal to the Muslims who to vote for if the BJP has to be stopped. 

The Muslim vote has played an important role behind the Trinamool’s rise to power. If the Muslims realise that the Communists and the Congress are no better than decorative players, they would like to make their votes count and throw their weight behind the Trinamool. In such a scenario, the real fight will skittle down to close to 200 non-Muslim influential seats. 

Then there is an important segment of women who constitute about 49 per cent of the electorate and who have been nurtured by the Mamata Banerjee government which runs close to 200 women-centric schemes. The women voters have steadfastly been the avid supporters of Didi since she breached the citadel of the Communists in the state. However, the division in this significant constituent can’t be ruled out this time as the state government is accused of the poor implementation of schemes amid reports of commission demanded by the Trinamool agents from the beneficiaries. It is too early to say whether this anger will result in shifting of the allegiance.

As things stand today, arithmetic favours Trinamool, but it has been seen in the past that sometimes chemistry wins over arithmetic. Whatever is the election outcome; this bout will produce an intense seesaw battle. Who played the better rally will be known when the election results are declared.

 

BJP’s flip flop on CAA - A tactical ploy!

Will the Citizenship (Amendment) Act be a boon or spell doom for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in Assam? One will have to wait for May 2 when votes will be counted.  With the hustle and bustle of campaigning coming to an end ahead of the third and the final phase of voting in this remote part of the region on April 6, the issue holds utmost importance.  Why has the CAA become a political hot potato for the BJP in Assam which led to the party’s meteoric rise in the previous election?

While the BJP has been going gung-ho on CAA in the neighbouring West Bengal, the party has been very indifferent on the issue as far as Assam is concerned. Ironically, the issue was high on the agenda of the BJP before the elections were announced, so much so that Assam’s powerful minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who dons several hats for the BJP in the state and the entire northeastern region, would not miss any opportunity to rake up the issue even during the Corona pandemic when all kinds of activities, including political, came to a complete halt. Can the CAA have two different connotations for two different states and that too when they share their boundaries and have Hindu Bengali migrants, who stand to benefit because of the new Act?

Perplexing, isn’t it?

What has happened between 2016, when the BJP swept to power in Assam largely benefiting from the twin issue of the CAA and NRC (National Register of Citizens), and now when it is maintaining studied silence?

The BJP’s promise of detecting and deporting “illegal migrants” from Bangladesh if it came to power resonated with the people of the ethnic communities who voted in large numbers for the party in the 2016 elections. Though the process to update the National Register of Citizens began following a Supreme Court order in 2013, the BJP hijacked the issue and made it a poll plank. And as it turned out, it vaulted the BJP to unexpected political gains, resulting in the formation of its government for the first time in Assam.

Similarly, the CAA promised Indian citizenship to persecuted religious minorities who had migrated from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan and arrived in India before the end of December 2014. This also helped the BJP in garnering the votes of the Bengali Hindus, who account for nearly 25 percent of the state’s population.

In effect, the BJP secured the support of both the ethnic communities as well as the Bengali Hindus as can be seen by its performance. It improved its seat tally by 12 times winning 60 of the 126 assembly seats. Its winning strike rate was more than 70 per cent as it contested only 84 seats.

So far so good!

But all the hell broke loose when the CAA was passed by Parliament in December 2019. Several parts of Assam, particularly the Brahmaputra Valley, erupted in protest. The indigenous people feared the CAA would pave the way for citizenship to a large number of Hindu Bengali migrants which would not only reduce them to minorities, but also destroy their identity, culture and language. The indigenous people want 1971 as the cut-off date for citizenship as agreed to in the Assam Accord of 1985 following years of agitations.

The CAA runs counter to the provisions of the Assam Accord as it seeks to grant citizenship to Hindu, Christian, Buddhist, Jain, Sikh and Parsi migrants who have entered India illegally on or before December 31, 2014 and have stayed in the country for five years. Who stands to benefit from CAA?  It’s the illegal Bengali Hindu migrants from Bangladesh who have settled in large numbers across the state.

For the indigenous people, migrant is a migrant, no matter whether he is Hindu or Muslim, and he should be identified and deported. On the contrary, the CAA makes a clear distinction between a Hindu migrant and a Muslim migrant.

Now the twist in the tail! When the Supreme Court monitored NRC finally published the list on August 31, 2019, it excluded 19.06 lakh people and a majority of those left out from the list were believed to be Bengali Muslims and Hindus. If accepted, it would rob the BJP of votes of lakhs of Hindus who could not make it to the updated list. So, the NRC, which cost the government more than 1200 crore rupees, was trashed by the very same people who were votaries of detecting and deporting illegal migrants.

Its Catch 22 situation for the BJP! If it talks about the CAA, it invites the wrath of the indigenous people. Non-implementation of CAA is bound to upset the Hindu Bengalis who may not vote for the BJP as religiously as they did the last time. That explains the silence of the BJP on the two issues. While the CAA is missing from the BJP’s manifesto, the party has promised a new NRC with corrections to protect genuine Indian citizens and exclude all illegal immigrants.

It remains to be seen how the issue pans out in the elections. But one thing is for sure that it will be very difficult for the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the regional party that was born out of a movement against illegal immigrants, and now a junior ally of the BJP, to convince the voters on its volte face on CAA. Interestingly, Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal was with the AGP which emerged as a political party from the All Assam Students Union (AASU) which spearheaded the anti-foreigners’ movement from 1979 to 1985 before he joined the BJP in 2011. 

If the BJP manages to overcome its strategic silence on these two issues and springs a surprise, the victory will be seen more as a referendum of the politics of the NDA government at the Centre than its performance in the state. 

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

GOVT’S U-TURN ON SMALL SAVINGS SCHEMES: POLITICS OVER ECONOMY!

 

The government’s move to reverse its decision regarding cut in the small savings schemes by 50 to 110 basis points for the first quarter of the financial year starting April 1, 2021 in less than 24 hours stems from its fears of the political fall-outs.  At a time, when the elections to four states and a Union Territory are underway, the proposed move would have given ammunition to the opposition parties to up the ante against the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government for following “anti-people” policies which would have hurt its political fortunes. That explains the government’s swift move to reverse its proposed decision to avoid any political backlash.

The proposed move to reduce interest rates on small savings schemes would have certainly hurt the small investors who have parked their money in the schemes which entail higher interest rates than the regular fixed deposit. Moreover, the investors also benefit from tax exemption offered by these schemes which is not the case with fixed deposit. With inflation inching further, these small savings schemes are the only ray of hope for small investors.

When a large number of people are yet to recover from the shock of pandemic-caused lockdowns which hurt them badly, the proposed move would have certainly been a double whammy for them and the resultant anger could halt the resurgent march of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the elections.

Should the small investors then cheer the government’s U-turn?

Certainly not! The government’s decision to revisit its earlier announcement is just a temporary move which will be restored when the election process is over. The government has just put it on hold. For, the cut in the small savings schemes is the need of the hour which is in the interest of both the people and the nation.

Banks, particularly the public sector ones, have not passed the benefit of the repo rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India, meant to stimulate various aspects of economic growth, to customers. They fear that it will hit their margin if they do so in view of the rate on deposits. Their fears are not completely unfounded as they are struggling with bad loans whereas non-banking institutions are facing solvency issues. Therefore, instead of adjusting their lending rate, the banks have done just the opposite by raising their deposit rates to collect funds to keep their balance sheets healthy.

The banks can soften their lending rate, which is vital to kick start the economy as it will increase the private consumption and offer liquidity access to all sectors hit by the pandemic, only if they reduce the deposit rates. Though there has been uptick in demand which collapsed following the pandemic, it needs to be sustained. Still, people are conscious about spending as income for all dropped to the bare minimum during the pandemic which led to a complete halt of the economic activities. 

The RBI has done its part by bringing the repo rate down to just four percent which is the lowest repo rate in the last two decades. Today, the banks are in a very advantageous position as they borrow money from the RBI at a much lower interest rate. When the RBI lowers the repo rate, the commercial banks are expected to pass this benefit to their customers by reducing the interest rates on the loans they offer. But it is not happening as the banks and financial institutions are still hesitant to pass on the entire rate cuts to the borrowers. 

It will be important to understand that the rate cuts make loans cheaper allowing people to pay a lesser amount of interest on loans – whether it is personal loans, car loans or home loans. The resultant saving for any person is much more than what he earns on his money parked in the banks.

That’s not all. If the banks pass on the rate cuts to the industry, it not only gives a boost to the industry, the consumers also stand to benefit in the end as the prices of commodities also become cheaper  due to lower interest rates.

The advantages of rate cuts thus outweigh the benefits of higher deposit rates as it boosts the demand side of the economy and spur consumption, the twin necessities for the revival of any economy. 

One can understand the U-turn by the Finance Ministry as the ruling BJP can ill-afford to anger the common man right now. It is also equally important for the common man to understand that the high deposit rate regime will do no good either to him or to the nation. Let the poll mania be over, the cut in the small savings schemes will be back on the table.

 

BJP HAS PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE IN WEST BENGAL

 

Once the dominant parties in the West Bengal state politics – the Congress and the Left Front stand atrophied and are fighting for their relevance. The Trinamool Congress, ruling the state since 2011, is betraying signs of nervousness after a large-scale exodus of party leaders and workers to the resurgent Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).  Backed by well-oiled machinery with the able and proactive support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP looks the most confident of all the parties as it unleashes a psychological warfare.  True to the Trinamool’s borrowed slogan from neighbouring Bangladesh “Khela Hobe”, West Bengal elections will certainly be a cracker of a match, no matter who wins or loses.

The country’s Home Minister and BJP’s chief strategist Amit Shah’s presumptuous claim of winning 26 of the 30 seats in the first phase of the state’s polling and bagging 200 of the 294 seats is a tactical ploy to turn the tide in his party’s favour and influencing the still-to-be-decided voters, besides denting the morale of the Trinamool activists.  The BJP’s renewed confidence stems from its scintillating performance in the 2019 parliamentary elections when it made major inroads into the state by winning 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats, clearly a paradigm shift in the state's political narrative.  In its marauding march, the Trinamool suffered the most as it lost 12 seats from its previous tally of 34, and all to the BJP. The Congress’ downfall continued as it won just two from its previous tally of four seats, whereas the Left Front sank completely drawing a zero. The losses of all these three parties were BJP’s gains signifying that it was eating into the traditional votes of not only one, but all the parties. In a way, the BJP announced its arrival in the state and that too in a very formidable way.

Therefore, the nervousness of Trinamool and Mamata Banerjee, who is the one (wo)man army in the party, in particular, is palpable.  After breaching the citadel of the Left Front, which had an uninterrupted rule of 34 years, the Trinamool felt tremors in its turf for the first time since 2011. The BJP had inflicted an agonising pain on it, which was to become acute in the subsequent years. The 2019 parliamentary elections rattled the Trinamool so much that its trusted lieutenants started ditching Didi and made a beeline to the BJP in droves. Whether they went on their own or were hijacked by the BJP is an altogether different story. In its drive to spread its footprints in the state, the BJP is employing all the four methods of Sam, Dam, Dand, Bhed roughly translated in English as the carrot and the stick policy.

So, what is driving people towards BJP?

The Trinamool was born out of the frustration of the people towards the communists under whose rule the industries dried up following long labour disputes and lock-outs. Trade unionism became an euphemism which had the tacit support of the government of the time leading to the migration of industrialists like Tatas, Birlas, Thapars, Singhanias, Bangurs etc. While land reforms and Panchayati Raj system in rural areas and pro-labour policies of the government in cities paid rich dividends to the Left Front, the subsequent closure of industries led to growing unemployment.  Violent attacks by the Left Front and the Congress activists against each other became a new norm and the state slipped into a complete lawlessness. The educated youth of the state became increasingly frustrated with the state of affairs and started moving to other states and countries.

With the Congress losing its steam, there was a political vacuum which was filled swiftly by the Trinamool which rode to power on the back of a massive and successful land agitation in Singur and Nandigram.  In its 'Ma, Mati, Manush' (Mother, Land, People) slogan-cum-promise, the people saw a ray of hope and an anticipated change.  But it certainly was not a Poriborton which the people voted for. The only change that came about was the transformation of the government. Otherwise, status-quo remained.

Welfare politics, doles, lawlessness, corruption, appeasement towards minorities, read Muslims, who form close to 30% of the population, is all that Trinamool stands for. There was no end to political violence. The rise of Trinamool saw frequent violent clashes between its supporters and the communists which in later years became fierce with the BJP when the latter started spreading its wings.

In effect, the change in government from the Left Front to the Trinamool did not result in the real Poriborton as the Mamata-led government was somewhat a slightly improved version of the communist avatar.  Singur and Nandigram certainly spelt political fortunes for the Trinamool, but it also exposed the party’s anti-industry instance. The abandoning of the Nano-car plant at Singur by the Tatas did not go down well with other industrialists who developed cold feet in investing their hard-earned money in the state where their investment was not perceived to be secure. Investments lead to direct and indirect jobs and have a spill-over effect into other economic opportunities.  So, in the absence of investments, the space for jobs shrunk in the state forcing the educated youth and unskilled people to look for greener postures elsewhere.

Herein lies the success story of the BJP. It tapped the exasperation of the people and aggrandised the advantage of a double-engine government (both at the Centre and the state) which could lead to all-round economic development.  It also latched onto the Trinamool’s lack of desire to change the status quo and promised the real Poriborton besides engineering its social maths.

The downfall of the communists led to the rise of the Trinamool. Who benefits more if Trinamool starts disintegrating? No prizes for guessing!

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

ASSAM -- TRICKY WICKET TO BAT ON

Much water has flown down the Brahmaputra since 2016 when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) swept to power in Assam riding on the massive anti-incumbency wave against the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government led by the veteran and longest-serving Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. 2021 is certainly no 2016. Much has changed since then. There was a severe anti-UPA wave in the country following the massive drubbing of the Congress-led government at the Centre in 2014. The anger of the people was so pronounced that many Congress-ruled governments were also swept away in the subsequent state elections and Assam was no exception where Tarun Gogoi was at the helm for three consecutive five-year terms. The BJP victory was a foregone conclusion in 2016 even before the votes were cast.

The BJP on its own came close to the half mark of 126 seats when it won 60 seats, a massive jump of 55 seats from the last election. The victory was also remarkable because the BJP contested only 84 seats in 2016 as against the 120 in the 2011 elections. Interestingly, the Congress, which managed to bag just 26 seats, a net loss of 53 seats from the last election, secured 1.4 percent more popular votes than its rival. The BJP’s net gain of 55 seats came largely at the expense of the Congress which lost 53 seats. 

This time, the dynamics have changed. The stakes are high for the BJP in Assam, the only state of the four states and a Union Territory going to polls, where it is in power. Unlike the previous election, there does not seem to be any wave and that explains whirlwind tours of the state by the top leadership consisting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party president J.P. Nadda.

On the back foot over the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA), the BJP has put the two crucial issues on the backburner which contributed to its major victory in the last election. Several parts of Assam, particularly the Brahmaputra Valley, were rocked by protests after the CAA was passed by Parliament in December 2019. The CAA promised Indian citizenship to persecuted religious minorities who had migrated from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan and arrived in India before the end of December 2014.

The indigenous people of Assam fear it will primarily benefit illegal Bengali Hindu migrants from Bangladesh who have settled in large numbers across the state and if they are granted citizenship, they will outnumber Assamese-speaking people in the state and their concerns are not unfounded.

The BJP backtracked on the NRC when out of the 1.9 million people excluded from the NRC were 1.3 million Hindus and indigenous tribes. That also explains why the BJP has rejected the NRC in Assam and wants a new one. It remains to be seen whether the BJP’s silence on these two issues will cost it the votes of both the indigenous people as well as the Hindu Bengalis.

Sensing the BJP’s dilemma, the state’s main opposition Congress party, stitched an alliance with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by controversial Badruddin Ajmal besides announcing to repeal the CAA and strengthen the administrative and legal management to deal with the NRC.  This is the first time the Congress has entered into a pre-poll pact with the AIUDF which has a considerable clout in the Muslim-dominated areas. According to Census 2011, Muslims form 34.22 percent of the total population of Assam and decide the electoral fate of 23 seats. In the last election, the AIUDF vote share was the third highest after the Congress and the BJP and bagged 13 seats, one seat less than the BJP’s closest ally, the AGP.  

The Congress also brought in its fold the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which was dumped by the BJP in favour of the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) last year. This decision seems to be puzzling as the BPF, which was an ally of the BJP in the last assembly elections, had a strike rate of 100 percent winning all the 12 seats that it contested.

Going by the results of the last election, the Congress-led alliance looks stronger on paper. The vote percentage of the Congress (30.9%), the AIUDF (13%) and BPF (3.9%) besides the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Left parties is better than the BJP with 29.5% votes and the AGP (8.1%). The BJP’s new ally, the UPPL, contested four seats in the last election and lost all.

However, the Congress will desperately miss the services of the veteran Tarun Gogoi, who passed away last year. There has been a leadership vacuum in the party since Gogoi’s death. No other leader commands the mass base in the state and that explains the decision of the Congress not to project its chief ministerial candidate.  The Congress’ best bet is Gaurav Gogoi, son of the departed leader, but it will be a litmus test not only for him, but the Congress as well. On the contrary, the BJP has Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and the clever strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma, a former Congress leader who switched sides in 2015 and joined the BJP in protest against Gogoi’s decision to promote his son at his expense. 

Making their debut in this election are two parties -- the Assam Jatiya Parishad and the Raijor Dal – born out of the anti-CAA protests and who will be contesting jointly. Both the parties have also the support of the once powerful All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) which spearheaded the anti-foreigners’ movement from 1979 to 1985.  The former Chief Minister Prafulla Mahanta, who has been denied the ticket by the AGP, is likely to put his weight behind the new parties. While it is too early to say what will be the impact of these two new parties, they will certainly play a spoilsport to the parties seen withering on the foreigners’ issue.

All said and done, the poll arithmetic is not as simple as one thinks it to be. The undecided voters sometimes turn the tide.  As of now, opinion polls have given an edge to the BJP-led alliance, which certainly holds an advantage being at the power at the state as well as at the Centre. But the BJP leadership’s claim of winning 100 seats is certainly a far cry.

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

WHAT A COUP IN MAHARASHTRA?

Who says silence is not golden in Indian politics? Just a few hours ago, when it seemed that the Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress had all but stitched together a fragile alliance to form a government in Maharashtra, people woke up from slumber to a new reality and a new government. Political pundits failed to read the mistaken silence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since Devendra Fadnavis resigned as chief minister following the collapse of talks with its oldest alliance partner, the Shiv Sena, in the aftermath of a hung assembly after elections. The BJP master strategists led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah were secretly at work without even giving an iota of hint what was cooking.

Pix courtesy: seelatest.com

The Indian media jumped the gun and rushed to anoint NCP chief Sharad Pawar as the modern-day Chanakya for succeeding in cajoling the Congress to join what critics termed as an “unthinkable and unprincipled alliance”. But it was the real Chanakya Amit Shah who sprang a surprise by breaking in in Pawar’s own party. In fact, it was the Sena which was very apprehensive of the BJP’s attempts of horse-trading and poaching of its newly elected MLAs and had therefore huddled them to the safe environs of the Congress-ruled Rajasthan. But none had the inkling of the BJP’s master stroke that it could strike at the heart of the NCP and wean away Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar. 

As things stand, it is now almost certain that Ajit will walk out on his parent party with more than 18 MLAs to avoid anti-defection law either by forming a new party or merging the entire block with the BJP. The BJP, which fell short of 40 seats in the 288-member house, will also need support of some smaller parties and independents, some of them BJP rebels, to prove majority. That the BJP has already done its homework by enlisting their support is a foregone conclusion.

In the latest twist of turns, the chief protagonist Sharad Pawar, who had almost scripted an unimaginable story of bringing the two warring parties Shiv Sena and Congress together, has been left red-faced. Never in his dreams could he have imagined that that his nephew would do a Vibhishana to him! But it is surprising that the Maratha strongman, who himself had been giving conflicting signals to the media in recent days regarding the government formation, could not read the riot act.

pix courtesy: newsclick.in

That all was not well between the uncle and nephew was not a hidden secret. Sharad Pawar’s ambition of promoting his daughter Supriya Sule at the expense of his nephew never went down well with the latter. The early signs of rift appeared in 2009 when Sharad Pawar appointed Chhagan Bhujbal as the deputy chief minister in the Ashok Chavan-led government after the Congress and NCP swept the polls. Miffed by Sharad Pawar’s decision to cut him to size, Ajit showed up his clout when he secured the support of a majority of the NCP MLAs a year later forcing his uncle to instate him as the deputy chief minister replacing Bhujbal. Since then, Ajit has been working to come out of the shadow of his dominant uncle.

Early this year, Ajit took some political positions which did not gel with the official policy of the NCP. Not only did he support the Modi government’s decision to abrogate the controversial Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir, he went on to demand that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir should also be made a part of India.

What surprises the most is that the senior Pawar did not even get a whiff of his nephew’s designs who was at the helm of the talks along with him leading to an almost certain Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress government! Till a month-and-a-half ago, Ajit must have endeared himself to his uncle after he resigned as an MLA after Sharad Pawar’s name got embroiled in the 25,000 crore rupee Maharashtra State Cooperative Bank scam saying he was perturbed over the allegations against the latter. He also owed his deputy chief ministership to his uncle then.

But, as they say, politics is a strange game like cricket where fortunes change in just a matter of time. The same thing happened in Maharashtra. While Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar and Sonia Gandhi might be ruing for taking their own sweet time to firm up the alliance, the Modi-Shah duo should be commended for thumbing the nose of the opposition and walking away with the trophy. For, everything is fair in love and war. And this was Maharashtra, the second largest state after Uttar Pradesh which sends maximum MPs to the Lok Sabha, where political stakes are very high for all the parties.

BJP- SHIV SENA MARRIAGE HAS GONE HORRIBLY WRONG

Mistrust, lies and deceit! This is how the BJP-Shiv Sena relationship can be summed up. It has been more than 10 days since the Maharashtra election results were announced; the two parties have not able to consummate their marriage which seemingly is headed for a disaster. There is no doubt that the voters, though sceptical about the alliance, still gave their verdict in favour of the two parties. The failure of both the parties to sink their differences to form a government and their open accusation of lies against each other portends a rocky if not a failed marriage.

The two parties have been sharing love-hate relationship since they entered into an alliance first in 1989 for the Lok Sabha as well as Maharashtra state elections. The bromance did not last long and both the parties parted ways in 2014 over bitter differences regarding seat sharing. Both the BJP and Shiv Sena went to polls independently with none garnering enough seats to form a government on its own. Shiv Sena, which misread the pulse of the voters, contested in 282 of the 288 assembly seats winning only 63. The BJP, which contested lesser number of seats (260), emerged as the single largest party winning 122 seats. The Sena, which had then claimed to play the role of opposition, soon had a change of heart and within two months kissed and patched up with the BJP to join the government in the state in December 2014.

pix courtesy: moneycontrol.com

Then again in January 2018, Shiv Sena raised the banner of revolt and announced to contest all future elections, including the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and Maharashtra assembly elections, alone. But by the time the 2019 general elections approached, it made a U-turn and announced the alliance with the BJP in February 2019 for the general elections as well as Maharashtra state assembly elections.

Shiv Sena, which largely draws its strength from the Maratha community, has failed to replicate its success in 1995 when it contested 169 seats and won 73. 

The two parties have been sharing love-hate relationship since they entered into an alliance first in 1989 for the Lok Sabha as well as Maharashtra state elections ...  Has the Shiv Sena realised the dangers and pains of an ill-assorted marriage and wants to move on?

It has not being able to penetrate in rural areas where its success rate is not too impressive. But it is driven by personal ambition to rule the state on its own. This explains the reason behind Shiv Sena’s demand for a 50:50 formula and rotation of chief minister post even though it won almost half of the seats in comparison to the BJP in the just concluded elections. While the BJP bagged 105 seats, the Shiv Sena won 56, closely followed by National Congress Party (54) and the Congress 44 seats.

Though both the parties together have 161 seats, way past the half-way mark of 144, the Sena is playing hardball by demanding an equal share in the ministry besides the chief ministerial post for half the term largely due to the BJP’s tally dipping from 122 in the last assembly elections.  With November 9 being the deadline by which time the government has to be sworn in otherwise the state will be headed to President’s rule, it remains to be seen which of the two saffron parties blinks first or will they go separate ways.

Politics is an unfamiliar territory where strange bedfellows become welcome friends. With so much of heart burn and mud-slinging from both sides, who knows Shiv Sena may well spring a surprise and realise its dream by coaxing the NCP and Congress to do the unimaginable. For, the enemy of my enemy is my friend! Even while remaining with the BJP, the Shiv Sena has been its shrillest opposition taking on the Narendra Modi government at the centre and Devendra Fadnavis in the state on several issues. Has the Shiv Sena realised the dangers and pains of an ill-assorted marriage and wants to move on? Only time will tell.

CONGRESS'S WOES: PRESENT TENSE AND FUTURE UNCERTAIN

India’s grand opposition Congress party seems to be inflicted with conspicuous confusion with very little clarity on the direction it wants to move. Amidst its bid to arrest the sagging fortunes and improve its presence, the party is simultaneously conspiring for the defeat of the National Democratic Alliance government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). There is an old proverb: “One foot cannot stand on two boats.” And that is precisely what the Congress is doing. Can the Congress take on the ruling party when it itself is struggling to regain the space it ceded to the BJP and other regional parties in the last few years?

pix courtesy: dnaindia.com

If the Congress has failed to stitch together an effective counter-alliance to the NDA, it is because of its refusal to give room to smaller but growing parties fearing further erosion in its shrinking base. As a result, not only did it miss the opportunity to be part of the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ in Uttar Pradesh, it is facing alliance blues in other states as well. The classic case is of Sharad Pawar-led National Congress party (NCP), which has been steadfastly associated with the Congress, has chosen to go it alone in Gujarat even though the two parties have pledged to contest together in Maharashtra. There is no doubt that with NCP choosing to contest all the 26 parliamentary seats in Gujarat, there will be a division of votes, which will ultimately benefit the BJP.

In fact, it was Sharad Pawar who had first taken the initiative to form a “Mahagathbandhan” of opposition parties to take on the ruling alliance. But his idea could not materialise as the Congress was not ready to play second fiddle to some parties which had grown in stature. The Congress, which was wiped out from Delhi in both the assembly and parliamentary elections, lacked maturity in entering into any understanding with the Aam Aadmi Party which also wanted the alliance in both Punjab and Haryana besides Delhi. But the Congress, which snatched power from the BJP-SAD alliance in Punjab and lost ground to the BJP in Haryana, did not want to share space with AAP which was spreading its wings there. As a result, what we see is a loosely-knit alliance led by Congress party with smaller parties in some states.

It reflects very poorly on the leadership of the Congress, which is not sagacious enough to come out of its shadow. Congress president Rahul Gandhi should realise that his party is not in a position to command a premium on its value. Had he been sensible and could see the writing on the wall; he would have gone ahead to accommodate as many parties which still wanted a solid and credible opposition alliance? The problem with the Congress leadership is that it wants to have the cake and eat it too. That’s not only practical but impossible also.

If the NDA alliance has been largely successful, it is due to the open-heartedness of the principal party, the BJP, which has been careful in creating a non-disturbing environment for smaller and regional parties. While continuing to pursue its agenda of maximising its reach in states where it does not have much influence, the BJP has been wise enough to enter into an alliance with regional parties.

With the Congress not having the stomach to accommodate the interests of other parties, it would have been better had it gone alone with an aim to improve its reach and tally. The Congress, which recorded its worst performance in the last general elections bagging just 44 seats, could corner only 19.5 per cent of votes then. Before it recovered some ground by winning state elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh last year, the Congress was only ruling Punjab and sharing power in Karnataka. The party showed some signs of recovery last year when elections to nine states – Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana – were held in 2018. Of the 1082 seats in these states, the Congress won 414 seats whereas the BJP won 355 seats.

The ideal strategy for Congress would have been to recoup and revitalise its organisation before going overboard with the aggressive approach of dislodging the Modi government. It has scored a self-goal by compromising with its prime objective of reviving the almost moribund party and simultaneously working to remove the present government. It is this confusion which has prevented it from allying with potential parties leading to three-cornered contests in several constituencies which is only going to help the BJP. In a nutshell, the present is tense and the future uncertain for the oldest political party.

(The article was first published at wionews.com)

WHY PRIYANKA MAY SPOIL SP-BSP PARTY IN UP?

Struggling with its sagging fortunes, India’s grand old party – the Congress – seems to have found its ‘Brahmashashtra’ in Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, who it believes can revive the political destiny of the party. Realising that the road to its revival hinges in the bellwether state Uttar Pradesh, which sends the maximum 80 lawmakers to parliament, the Congress president Rahul Gandhi has appointed his sister as the party general secretary and in-charge of eastern Uttar Pradesh in the hope that her charismatic personality may arrest the party’s steep fall in the crucial state.

In the last few decades, the Congress, which used to draw its maximum strength from Uttar Pradesh, has ceded space to the regional parties – the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party – besides the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which all have grown at its expense. Therefore, it becomes crucial for the party to devote its maximum energy in the state, and the appointment of Priyanka and Jyotiraditya Scindia, who has been tasked with the western Uttar Pradesh, is being seen in that direction. Scindia had recently played a significant role in the party’s success in Madhya Pradesh elections.

pix courtesy: latestLY.com

The responsibility is huge for both Scindia and Priyanka, whose role so far was limited to campaigning to the family pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli, the parliamentary constituencies of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, respectively. Not only that the duo will have to cope with the rising graph of the BJP, which swept the last parliamentary elections by bagging 73 seats (including two seats by its ally, the Apna Dal), the party will be hard pressed to find its footing in the face of the “gathbandhan” of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party.  The Congress had recorded its worst performance in the 2014 parliamentary elections when it could only protect its traditional seats of Amethi and Rae Bareli.

While the selection and responsibility of Priyanka Gandhi can be understandable from the party’s point of view, the decision may hurt the SP-BSP alliance more than the BJP. The BJP garnered 42.30 % of the total votes polled registering an impressive growth of 24.80% and its ally – the Apna Dal – one percent. On the contrary, the SP saw its fortunes dip by just 1.06 percent (it got 22.20% votes), but it won only 5 seats losing 18 in the process. But Mayawati’s BSP and the Congress were hit the hardest losing 7.82% and 10.35% respectively of the total votes polled. BSP, which had won 20 seats in the 1999 parliamentary elections, was completely wiped out failing to secure even one seat, the Congress managed to secure only two seats while forfeiting 19 seats.

If one has to go by arithmetic, the SP (with 22.20% votes) and BSP (with 19.60% votes) together hope to corner 41.80 percent votes as against the BJP and Apna Dal’s vote share of 43.30 percent with a deficit of just 1.50% if the voting pattern remains the same. If both the SP and BSP manage to protect their voter base and don’t lose ground further, they are hoping to upset the apple cart of the BJP. Keeping the Congress, which garnered 7.50 percent votes in the last elections, out of the alliance and the entry of Priyanka Gandhi in the state, may put paid to the two regional parties’ analysis.

If Priyanka really manages to wean away the disgruntled die-hard voters to her party’s fold, it will be the SP and the BSP, which will suffer the most. For, it is highly unlikely that she will be able to make inroads into the BJP, which has a committed cadre who have remained steadfast with the party over the years.

It remains to be seen whether Priyanka will be able to bring any windfalls to the party in terms of seats, but her arrival is bound to galvanise the party, which is on a free fall. There is every possibility that the party may benefit in terms of vote share. And if that happens, she will be cutting into the traditional vote base of the SP and BSP. Instead of a direct contest between BJP on one hand and SP-BSP alliance on the other, there will now be a three-cornered contest. In this scenario, there is bound to be division of votes, which will ultimately help the BJP. Mayawati and Akhilesh seem to have misread the situation completely by maintaining a distance from the Congress as they were unsure that the latter could pitchfork Priyanka in the politically crucial state with wider responsibilities. This might prove to be a costly miscalculation on their part.