BENGAL ‘KHELA’ HEADED FOR A TIE-BREAKER!

Sometimes, it makes sense to be a fence sitter and more so when such an important and make-or-mar ‘khela’ is on in West Bengal. One is reminded of the epic Wimbledon 2019 Men's Single Final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, which was among the greatest of all time not only in the annals of Wimbledon, but in the history of tennis. A roller-coaster match, which Djokovic won 7-6 (7-6), 1-6, 7-6 (7-4), 4-6, 13-12 (7-3) after a gruelling 4 hours and 57 minutes!  Besides being the longest Wimbledon final, it was also the first ever deciding-set tiebreak at 12-12 in singles in the tournament’s history. 

West Bengal elections, spread over eight phases, also makes it the longest ever polls in the state. Unlike the Wimbledon 2019 match when the two giants were pitted against each other, the fight this time in this eastern state is between Trinamool Congress, which has set its sights on the third term, and the country’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was a greenhorn in the West Bengal politics till a few years ago, until it announced its arrival in the 2019 parliamentary elections when it won 18 of the 42 seats in the state. Since then, there has been no looking back for the BJP as it is racing menacingly to mount a formidable challenge to its opponent.  

Interestingly, the Congress and the Left Front, which have ruled the state for 55 years between them, are not in the picture this time. So much so that the top leadership of both the parties chose to stay away from the polls, leaving the campaigning to their local leaders! The Gandhi siblings – Rahul and Priyanka – were conspicuous by their absence in the state. Rahul, who addressed only one rally in the state on April 14 and that too when half of the eight-phase polls was already over, later decided to suspend campaign in the wake of rising Corona cases. Similarly, the ageing central leadership of the Left Front gave a complete miss to the campaigning in the state. 

Why did both the Congress and the Left chicken out and not even put up a fight in Bengal? Were they scared of the imminent humiliating rout or was it a tactical ploy to back out?

The sole agenda of all the parties both at the central and state level is to defeat the Hindu party which is growing in strength, resulting in a decapacitated Opposition. That also explains the alliance between political parties which were not long ago cutting each other’s throats. The renewed bonhomie between the Congress and the Left parties in Assam and West Bengal is not based on any principle, but largely out of the fear of a complete annihilation. The coming together of the two in Assam and West Bengal while fighting each other in Kerala is self-explanatory. 

Aware that they will not be able to pose any challenge to the BJP, both the Congress and the Left chose to remain silent warriors as part of a strategy and let the Trinamool slug it out. The grand design is not to allow the Muslim vote to be split. All the three – the Congress, Left Front and now Trinamool -- have played the ‘Tushtikaran’ (appeasement) politics to stay afloat in the state.  According to the 2011 Census, Muslim population in West Bengal is 2.47 crore (27.01 percent) of total 9.13 crore. In 10 years since, one can safely assume that the percentage of the Muslim population will be at least 30 percent, if not more. All the three parties have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Muslim vote in the past as the minority community chose to vote en masse for any party which offered maximum concessions.  That they wield influence in close to 100 of the 294 assembly seats makes them a powerful bloc. 

As things stand today, arithmetic favours Trinamool, but it has been seen in the past that sometimes chemistry wins over arithmetic. Whatever is the election outcome; this bout will produce an intense seesaw battle. Who played the better rally will be known when the election results are declared.

As long as the BJP was a marginal player, all the three parties tried to outdo each other in soliciting the Muslim vote. Over the years, the Muslim voter has also become smart. Rather than putting all their eggs in one basket, read political party, the Muslims have been voting for the candidates instead which is why there has been a gradual increase in the number of Muslim candidates put up by all the political parties and the BJP is also no exception. The BJP has fielded nine Muslim candidates this time as compared to 42 by the Trinamool. 

But the arithmetic has changed since the BJP juggernaut rolled in the state. With both the Congress and the Left teetering on the brink, there is a growing realisation that a dent in the Muslim vote will serve the interests of the BJP only. Therefore, the two have decided to go slow sending out a clear signal to the Muslims who to vote for if the BJP has to be stopped. 

The Muslim vote has played an important role behind the Trinamool’s rise to power. If the Muslims realise that the Communists and the Congress are no better than decorative players, they would like to make their votes count and throw their weight behind the Trinamool. In such a scenario, the real fight will skittle down to close to 200 non-Muslim influential seats. 

Then there is an important segment of women who constitute about 49 per cent of the electorate and who have been nurtured by the Mamata Banerjee government which runs close to 200 women-centric schemes. The women voters have steadfastly been the avid supporters of Didi since she breached the citadel of the Communists in the state. However, the division in this significant constituent can’t be ruled out this time as the state government is accused of the poor implementation of schemes amid reports of commission demanded by the Trinamool agents from the beneficiaries. It is too early to say whether this anger will result in shifting of the allegiance.

As things stand today, arithmetic favours Trinamool, but it has been seen in the past that sometimes chemistry wins over arithmetic. Whatever is the election outcome; this bout will produce an intense seesaw battle. Who played the better rally will be known when the election results are declared.

 

Left out in the cold!

 

The writing on the wall was there. But the Leftists in India steadfastly refused to read the message. And if the Left is facing an existential crisis, it itself is to be blamed. There is a famous saying by the Greek philosopher Heraclitus “Change is the only constant in life”. But for the Left, “change” is anathema. What is surprising is that while Communism and the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe sank, the Left in India continued to swim for so long! Still, it refused to learn lessons from Russia and China, the historical torchbearers of communism, who later embraced the free-market economy.

Being the main opposition party to the Congress at the Centre for about 20 years after Independence, the Left, represented by the Communist Party of India (CPI) then, is fighting unsuccessfully for its survival.

In 1957, the CPI became the first party in independent India to win a state election without aligning with the Congress. It was Kerala. But the next seven years saw the disintegration of the CPI as it split in 1964 into two factions – the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India (Marxist).  In the subsequent years, the radical CPI-M grew in strength at the expense of the CPI.

Though the CPI-M was part of the United Front government in West Bengal between 1967 and 1971, it made it big when Jyoti Basu began his long tenure as the Chief Minister, serving as head of the Left Front coalition which had an uninterrupted rule for 34 years till 2011. In the meantime, the Front continued to play a dominant role in Kerala either as the ruling or the main opposition party almost every five-year rotation of state elections. The party added Tripura to its kitty in 1993 where it headed the government for 25 years until 2018.

The period between 1990 and 2010 was the golden era of the Left Front. Not only did it prop up several Third Front governments at the Centre, it also supported the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government from outside in 2004 when it had 59 parliamentary seats till it withdrew its support in July 2008 on the nuclear deal with the US. The decision later backfired and cost it heavily in the next elections.

This period also saw the Left committing the “historic blunder” when it denied prime ministership to Jyoti Basu in 1996. History would have been written differently had the Left not torpedoed Jyoti Basu’s chances of becoming the first communist Prime Minister of the country.  One fails to understand the intellect of the Left because Jyoti Basu as Prime Minister could have benefited the communists politically largely.

The free fall in the Left’s fortunes began from 2009 when its Lok Sabha tally hit 24, the lowest ever since independence.  The subsequent elections saw further erosion of the Left Front as it won 12 parliamentary seats in 2014 and just five in the last elections which were held in 2019. Notably, the Left drew a blank in its bastions West Bengal and Tripura and managed to win just one seat in Kerala. Its other four seats came from Tamil Nadu, thanks to the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).

No doubt, the Left owed its success in West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala to the land reforms and it became the mannequin of the farming community initially.  But the reforms did not percolate down to the lowest strata of the society, particularly the lower caste people. The Left, which largely pandered to the interests of the working class, also did not try to expand its base.

Most importantly, its economic policies were much left to be desired. The flight of industrialists from the state due to persistent labour disputes and lock-outs and the government’s open support to trade unions led to the growing unemployment. The educated youth had no jobs. Bristling with anger, they, too, migrated. To add fuel to the fire was the sudden U-turn on the decades-old economic policies of the Left by the then Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee. His open embrace to industrialists by creating favourable policies like the Special Economic Zones and the land acquisition for a proposed Tata Motors automobile factory at Singur backfired. The Trinamool Congress led by the fiery Mamata Banerjee, which was waiting in the wings for long, smelt opportunity and accused the Left government of grabbing land of the poor villagers for the industrialists. The relentless campaign by the Trinamool struck a chord with the people, who had by now become disillusioned with the ruling communist dispensation. The people’s pent-up anger reflected in the 2011 Assembly elections when they punished the Left Front by voting the Trinamool to power. The Left’s defeat was so pronounced that the Front could win just 62 seats out of 294. Notably, the incumbent Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee lost his Jadavpur seat to his Trinamool rival. The BJP, which contested 289 seats, failed to open its account.

The story was more or less the same in the assembly elections that followed five years later in 2016, except the complete Trinamoolisation of the communists. The Left Front slumped to its worst tally winning just 32 seats whereas Trinamool added 27 more to take its tally to 211. The BJP made its debut by winning three seats.

Up till now, the Communists’ loss was Trinamool’s gain. But five years down the line, there seems to be churn happening in West Bengal politics. Those who switched their loyalty to Trinamool are dejected, as the change they expected did not happen. In Trinamool, they saw the extension of the communist rule. Their disappointment was evident when the BJP, which was a marginal player in the state politics till recently, made a splash in the 2019 parliamentary elections by winning 18 of the 42 seats. And most of the gains came at the expense of the Trinamool.

As the eight-phase elections are underway in West Bengal, the BJP has emerged as the main opponent to the Trinamool displacing both the Left and the Congress. It itself is a major victory for the saffron party which till the last assembly elections had just three seats in its kitty. So, what is left of the Left? Even the Left is groping for answers!

 (The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

BJP HAS PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE IN WEST BENGAL

 

Once the dominant parties in the West Bengal state politics – the Congress and the Left Front stand atrophied and are fighting for their relevance. The Trinamool Congress, ruling the state since 2011, is betraying signs of nervousness after a large-scale exodus of party leaders and workers to the resurgent Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).  Backed by well-oiled machinery with the able and proactive support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP looks the most confident of all the parties as it unleashes a psychological warfare.  True to the Trinamool’s borrowed slogan from neighbouring Bangladesh “Khela Hobe”, West Bengal elections will certainly be a cracker of a match, no matter who wins or loses.

The country’s Home Minister and BJP’s chief strategist Amit Shah’s presumptuous claim of winning 26 of the 30 seats in the first phase of the state’s polling and bagging 200 of the 294 seats is a tactical ploy to turn the tide in his party’s favour and influencing the still-to-be-decided voters, besides denting the morale of the Trinamool activists.  The BJP’s renewed confidence stems from its scintillating performance in the 2019 parliamentary elections when it made major inroads into the state by winning 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats, clearly a paradigm shift in the state's political narrative.  In its marauding march, the Trinamool suffered the most as it lost 12 seats from its previous tally of 34, and all to the BJP. The Congress’ downfall continued as it won just two from its previous tally of four seats, whereas the Left Front sank completely drawing a zero. The losses of all these three parties were BJP’s gains signifying that it was eating into the traditional votes of not only one, but all the parties. In a way, the BJP announced its arrival in the state and that too in a very formidable way.

Therefore, the nervousness of Trinamool and Mamata Banerjee, who is the one (wo)man army in the party, in particular, is palpable.  After breaching the citadel of the Left Front, which had an uninterrupted rule of 34 years, the Trinamool felt tremors in its turf for the first time since 2011. The BJP had inflicted an agonising pain on it, which was to become acute in the subsequent years. The 2019 parliamentary elections rattled the Trinamool so much that its trusted lieutenants started ditching Didi and made a beeline to the BJP in droves. Whether they went on their own or were hijacked by the BJP is an altogether different story. In its drive to spread its footprints in the state, the BJP is employing all the four methods of Sam, Dam, Dand, Bhed roughly translated in English as the carrot and the stick policy.

So, what is driving people towards BJP?

The Trinamool was born out of the frustration of the people towards the communists under whose rule the industries dried up following long labour disputes and lock-outs. Trade unionism became an euphemism which had the tacit support of the government of the time leading to the migration of industrialists like Tatas, Birlas, Thapars, Singhanias, Bangurs etc. While land reforms and Panchayati Raj system in rural areas and pro-labour policies of the government in cities paid rich dividends to the Left Front, the subsequent closure of industries led to growing unemployment.  Violent attacks by the Left Front and the Congress activists against each other became a new norm and the state slipped into a complete lawlessness. The educated youth of the state became increasingly frustrated with the state of affairs and started moving to other states and countries.

With the Congress losing its steam, there was a political vacuum which was filled swiftly by the Trinamool which rode to power on the back of a massive and successful land agitation in Singur and Nandigram.  In its 'Ma, Mati, Manush' (Mother, Land, People) slogan-cum-promise, the people saw a ray of hope and an anticipated change.  But it certainly was not a Poriborton which the people voted for. The only change that came about was the transformation of the government. Otherwise, status-quo remained.

Welfare politics, doles, lawlessness, corruption, appeasement towards minorities, read Muslims, who form close to 30% of the population, is all that Trinamool stands for. There was no end to political violence. The rise of Trinamool saw frequent violent clashes between its supporters and the communists which in later years became fierce with the BJP when the latter started spreading its wings.

In effect, the change in government from the Left Front to the Trinamool did not result in the real Poriborton as the Mamata-led government was somewhat a slightly improved version of the communist avatar.  Singur and Nandigram certainly spelt political fortunes for the Trinamool, but it also exposed the party’s anti-industry instance. The abandoning of the Nano-car plant at Singur by the Tatas did not go down well with other industrialists who developed cold feet in investing their hard-earned money in the state where their investment was not perceived to be secure. Investments lead to direct and indirect jobs and have a spill-over effect into other economic opportunities.  So, in the absence of investments, the space for jobs shrunk in the state forcing the educated youth and unskilled people to look for greener postures elsewhere.

Herein lies the success story of the BJP. It tapped the exasperation of the people and aggrandised the advantage of a double-engine government (both at the Centre and the state) which could lead to all-round economic development.  It also latched onto the Trinamool’s lack of desire to change the status quo and promised the real Poriborton besides engineering its social maths.

The downfall of the communists led to the rise of the Trinamool. Who benefits more if Trinamool starts disintegrating? No prizes for guessing!

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)