BJP HAS PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE IN WEST BENGAL

 

Once the dominant parties in the West Bengal state politics – the Congress and the Left Front stand atrophied and are fighting for their relevance. The Trinamool Congress, ruling the state since 2011, is betraying signs of nervousness after a large-scale exodus of party leaders and workers to the resurgent Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).  Backed by well-oiled machinery with the able and proactive support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP looks the most confident of all the parties as it unleashes a psychological warfare.  True to the Trinamool’s borrowed slogan from neighbouring Bangladesh “Khela Hobe”, West Bengal elections will certainly be a cracker of a match, no matter who wins or loses.

The country’s Home Minister and BJP’s chief strategist Amit Shah’s presumptuous claim of winning 26 of the 30 seats in the first phase of the state’s polling and bagging 200 of the 294 seats is a tactical ploy to turn the tide in his party’s favour and influencing the still-to-be-decided voters, besides denting the morale of the Trinamool activists.  The BJP’s renewed confidence stems from its scintillating performance in the 2019 parliamentary elections when it made major inroads into the state by winning 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats, clearly a paradigm shift in the state's political narrative.  In its marauding march, the Trinamool suffered the most as it lost 12 seats from its previous tally of 34, and all to the BJP. The Congress’ downfall continued as it won just two from its previous tally of four seats, whereas the Left Front sank completely drawing a zero. The losses of all these three parties were BJP’s gains signifying that it was eating into the traditional votes of not only one, but all the parties. In a way, the BJP announced its arrival in the state and that too in a very formidable way.

Therefore, the nervousness of Trinamool and Mamata Banerjee, who is the one (wo)man army in the party, in particular, is palpable.  After breaching the citadel of the Left Front, which had an uninterrupted rule of 34 years, the Trinamool felt tremors in its turf for the first time since 2011. The BJP had inflicted an agonising pain on it, which was to become acute in the subsequent years. The 2019 parliamentary elections rattled the Trinamool so much that its trusted lieutenants started ditching Didi and made a beeline to the BJP in droves. Whether they went on their own or were hijacked by the BJP is an altogether different story. In its drive to spread its footprints in the state, the BJP is employing all the four methods of Sam, Dam, Dand, Bhed roughly translated in English as the carrot and the stick policy.

So, what is driving people towards BJP?

The Trinamool was born out of the frustration of the people towards the communists under whose rule the industries dried up following long labour disputes and lock-outs. Trade unionism became an euphemism which had the tacit support of the government of the time leading to the migration of industrialists like Tatas, Birlas, Thapars, Singhanias, Bangurs etc. While land reforms and Panchayati Raj system in rural areas and pro-labour policies of the government in cities paid rich dividends to the Left Front, the subsequent closure of industries led to growing unemployment.  Violent attacks by the Left Front and the Congress activists against each other became a new norm and the state slipped into a complete lawlessness. The educated youth of the state became increasingly frustrated with the state of affairs and started moving to other states and countries.

With the Congress losing its steam, there was a political vacuum which was filled swiftly by the Trinamool which rode to power on the back of a massive and successful land agitation in Singur and Nandigram.  In its 'Ma, Mati, Manush' (Mother, Land, People) slogan-cum-promise, the people saw a ray of hope and an anticipated change.  But it certainly was not a Poriborton which the people voted for. The only change that came about was the transformation of the government. Otherwise, status-quo remained.

Welfare politics, doles, lawlessness, corruption, appeasement towards minorities, read Muslims, who form close to 30% of the population, is all that Trinamool stands for. There was no end to political violence. The rise of Trinamool saw frequent violent clashes between its supporters and the communists which in later years became fierce with the BJP when the latter started spreading its wings.

In effect, the change in government from the Left Front to the Trinamool did not result in the real Poriborton as the Mamata-led government was somewhat a slightly improved version of the communist avatar.  Singur and Nandigram certainly spelt political fortunes for the Trinamool, but it also exposed the party’s anti-industry instance. The abandoning of the Nano-car plant at Singur by the Tatas did not go down well with other industrialists who developed cold feet in investing their hard-earned money in the state where their investment was not perceived to be secure. Investments lead to direct and indirect jobs and have a spill-over effect into other economic opportunities.  So, in the absence of investments, the space for jobs shrunk in the state forcing the educated youth and unskilled people to look for greener postures elsewhere.

Herein lies the success story of the BJP. It tapped the exasperation of the people and aggrandised the advantage of a double-engine government (both at the Centre and the state) which could lead to all-round economic development.  It also latched onto the Trinamool’s lack of desire to change the status quo and promised the real Poriborton besides engineering its social maths.

The downfall of the communists led to the rise of the Trinamool. Who benefits more if Trinamool starts disintegrating? No prizes for guessing!

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

WHAT A COUP IN MAHARASHTRA?

Who says silence is not golden in Indian politics? Just a few hours ago, when it seemed that the Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress had all but stitched together a fragile alliance to form a government in Maharashtra, people woke up from slumber to a new reality and a new government. Political pundits failed to read the mistaken silence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since Devendra Fadnavis resigned as chief minister following the collapse of talks with its oldest alliance partner, the Shiv Sena, in the aftermath of a hung assembly after elections. The BJP master strategists led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah were secretly at work without even giving an iota of hint what was cooking.

Pix courtesy: seelatest.com

The Indian media jumped the gun and rushed to anoint NCP chief Sharad Pawar as the modern-day Chanakya for succeeding in cajoling the Congress to join what critics termed as an “unthinkable and unprincipled alliance”. But it was the real Chanakya Amit Shah who sprang a surprise by breaking in in Pawar’s own party. In fact, it was the Sena which was very apprehensive of the BJP’s attempts of horse-trading and poaching of its newly elected MLAs and had therefore huddled them to the safe environs of the Congress-ruled Rajasthan. But none had the inkling of the BJP’s master stroke that it could strike at the heart of the NCP and wean away Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar. 

As things stand, it is now almost certain that Ajit will walk out on his parent party with more than 18 MLAs to avoid anti-defection law either by forming a new party or merging the entire block with the BJP. The BJP, which fell short of 40 seats in the 288-member house, will also need support of some smaller parties and independents, some of them BJP rebels, to prove majority. That the BJP has already done its homework by enlisting their support is a foregone conclusion.

In the latest twist of turns, the chief protagonist Sharad Pawar, who had almost scripted an unimaginable story of bringing the two warring parties Shiv Sena and Congress together, has been left red-faced. Never in his dreams could he have imagined that that his nephew would do a Vibhishana to him! But it is surprising that the Maratha strongman, who himself had been giving conflicting signals to the media in recent days regarding the government formation, could not read the riot act.

pix courtesy: newsclick.in

That all was not well between the uncle and nephew was not a hidden secret. Sharad Pawar’s ambition of promoting his daughter Supriya Sule at the expense of his nephew never went down well with the latter. The early signs of rift appeared in 2009 when Sharad Pawar appointed Chhagan Bhujbal as the deputy chief minister in the Ashok Chavan-led government after the Congress and NCP swept the polls. Miffed by Sharad Pawar’s decision to cut him to size, Ajit showed up his clout when he secured the support of a majority of the NCP MLAs a year later forcing his uncle to instate him as the deputy chief minister replacing Bhujbal. Since then, Ajit has been working to come out of the shadow of his dominant uncle.

Early this year, Ajit took some political positions which did not gel with the official policy of the NCP. Not only did he support the Modi government’s decision to abrogate the controversial Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir, he went on to demand that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir should also be made a part of India.

What surprises the most is that the senior Pawar did not even get a whiff of his nephew’s designs who was at the helm of the talks along with him leading to an almost certain Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress government! Till a month-and-a-half ago, Ajit must have endeared himself to his uncle after he resigned as an MLA after Sharad Pawar’s name got embroiled in the 25,000 crore rupee Maharashtra State Cooperative Bank scam saying he was perturbed over the allegations against the latter. He also owed his deputy chief ministership to his uncle then.

But, as they say, politics is a strange game like cricket where fortunes change in just a matter of time. The same thing happened in Maharashtra. While Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar and Sonia Gandhi might be ruing for taking their own sweet time to firm up the alliance, the Modi-Shah duo should be commended for thumbing the nose of the opposition and walking away with the trophy. For, everything is fair in love and war. And this was Maharashtra, the second largest state after Uttar Pradesh which sends maximum MPs to the Lok Sabha, where political stakes are very high for all the parties.