BENGAL ‘KHELA’ HEADED FOR A TIE-BREAKER!

Sometimes, it makes sense to be a fence sitter and more so when such an important and make-or-mar ‘khela’ is on in West Bengal. One is reminded of the epic Wimbledon 2019 Men's Single Final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, which was among the greatest of all time not only in the annals of Wimbledon, but in the history of tennis. A roller-coaster match, which Djokovic won 7-6 (7-6), 1-6, 7-6 (7-4), 4-6, 13-12 (7-3) after a gruelling 4 hours and 57 minutes!  Besides being the longest Wimbledon final, it was also the first ever deciding-set tiebreak at 12-12 in singles in the tournament’s history. 

West Bengal elections, spread over eight phases, also makes it the longest ever polls in the state. Unlike the Wimbledon 2019 match when the two giants were pitted against each other, the fight this time in this eastern state is between Trinamool Congress, which has set its sights on the third term, and the country’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was a greenhorn in the West Bengal politics till a few years ago, until it announced its arrival in the 2019 parliamentary elections when it won 18 of the 42 seats in the state. Since then, there has been no looking back for the BJP as it is racing menacingly to mount a formidable challenge to its opponent.  

Interestingly, the Congress and the Left Front, which have ruled the state for 55 years between them, are not in the picture this time. So much so that the top leadership of both the parties chose to stay away from the polls, leaving the campaigning to their local leaders! The Gandhi siblings – Rahul and Priyanka – were conspicuous by their absence in the state. Rahul, who addressed only one rally in the state on April 14 and that too when half of the eight-phase polls was already over, later decided to suspend campaign in the wake of rising Corona cases. Similarly, the ageing central leadership of the Left Front gave a complete miss to the campaigning in the state. 

Why did both the Congress and the Left chicken out and not even put up a fight in Bengal? Were they scared of the imminent humiliating rout or was it a tactical ploy to back out?

The sole agenda of all the parties both at the central and state level is to defeat the Hindu party which is growing in strength, resulting in a decapacitated Opposition. That also explains the alliance between political parties which were not long ago cutting each other’s throats. The renewed bonhomie between the Congress and the Left parties in Assam and West Bengal is not based on any principle, but largely out of the fear of a complete annihilation. The coming together of the two in Assam and West Bengal while fighting each other in Kerala is self-explanatory. 

Aware that they will not be able to pose any challenge to the BJP, both the Congress and the Left chose to remain silent warriors as part of a strategy and let the Trinamool slug it out. The grand design is not to allow the Muslim vote to be split. All the three – the Congress, Left Front and now Trinamool -- have played the ‘Tushtikaran’ (appeasement) politics to stay afloat in the state.  According to the 2011 Census, Muslim population in West Bengal is 2.47 crore (27.01 percent) of total 9.13 crore. In 10 years since, one can safely assume that the percentage of the Muslim population will be at least 30 percent, if not more. All the three parties have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Muslim vote in the past as the minority community chose to vote en masse for any party which offered maximum concessions.  That they wield influence in close to 100 of the 294 assembly seats makes them a powerful bloc. 

As things stand today, arithmetic favours Trinamool, but it has been seen in the past that sometimes chemistry wins over arithmetic. Whatever is the election outcome; this bout will produce an intense seesaw battle. Who played the better rally will be known when the election results are declared.

As long as the BJP was a marginal player, all the three parties tried to outdo each other in soliciting the Muslim vote. Over the years, the Muslim voter has also become smart. Rather than putting all their eggs in one basket, read political party, the Muslims have been voting for the candidates instead which is why there has been a gradual increase in the number of Muslim candidates put up by all the political parties and the BJP is also no exception. The BJP has fielded nine Muslim candidates this time as compared to 42 by the Trinamool. 

But the arithmetic has changed since the BJP juggernaut rolled in the state. With both the Congress and the Left teetering on the brink, there is a growing realisation that a dent in the Muslim vote will serve the interests of the BJP only. Therefore, the two have decided to go slow sending out a clear signal to the Muslims who to vote for if the BJP has to be stopped. 

The Muslim vote has played an important role behind the Trinamool’s rise to power. If the Muslims realise that the Communists and the Congress are no better than decorative players, they would like to make their votes count and throw their weight behind the Trinamool. In such a scenario, the real fight will skittle down to close to 200 non-Muslim influential seats. 

Then there is an important segment of women who constitute about 49 per cent of the electorate and who have been nurtured by the Mamata Banerjee government which runs close to 200 women-centric schemes. The women voters have steadfastly been the avid supporters of Didi since she breached the citadel of the Communists in the state. However, the division in this significant constituent can’t be ruled out this time as the state government is accused of the poor implementation of schemes amid reports of commission demanded by the Trinamool agents from the beneficiaries. It is too early to say whether this anger will result in shifting of the allegiance.

As things stand today, arithmetic favours Trinamool, but it has been seen in the past that sometimes chemistry wins over arithmetic. Whatever is the election outcome; this bout will produce an intense seesaw battle. Who played the better rally will be known when the election results are declared.

 

Left out in the cold!

 

The writing on the wall was there. But the Leftists in India steadfastly refused to read the message. And if the Left is facing an existential crisis, it itself is to be blamed. There is a famous saying by the Greek philosopher Heraclitus “Change is the only constant in life”. But for the Left, “change” is anathema. What is surprising is that while Communism and the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe sank, the Left in India continued to swim for so long! Still, it refused to learn lessons from Russia and China, the historical torchbearers of communism, who later embraced the free-market economy.

Being the main opposition party to the Congress at the Centre for about 20 years after Independence, the Left, represented by the Communist Party of India (CPI) then, is fighting unsuccessfully for its survival.

In 1957, the CPI became the first party in independent India to win a state election without aligning with the Congress. It was Kerala. But the next seven years saw the disintegration of the CPI as it split in 1964 into two factions – the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India (Marxist).  In the subsequent years, the radical CPI-M grew in strength at the expense of the CPI.

Though the CPI-M was part of the United Front government in West Bengal between 1967 and 1971, it made it big when Jyoti Basu began his long tenure as the Chief Minister, serving as head of the Left Front coalition which had an uninterrupted rule for 34 years till 2011. In the meantime, the Front continued to play a dominant role in Kerala either as the ruling or the main opposition party almost every five-year rotation of state elections. The party added Tripura to its kitty in 1993 where it headed the government for 25 years until 2018.

The period between 1990 and 2010 was the golden era of the Left Front. Not only did it prop up several Third Front governments at the Centre, it also supported the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government from outside in 2004 when it had 59 parliamentary seats till it withdrew its support in July 2008 on the nuclear deal with the US. The decision later backfired and cost it heavily in the next elections.

This period also saw the Left committing the “historic blunder” when it denied prime ministership to Jyoti Basu in 1996. History would have been written differently had the Left not torpedoed Jyoti Basu’s chances of becoming the first communist Prime Minister of the country.  One fails to understand the intellect of the Left because Jyoti Basu as Prime Minister could have benefited the communists politically largely.

The free fall in the Left’s fortunes began from 2009 when its Lok Sabha tally hit 24, the lowest ever since independence.  The subsequent elections saw further erosion of the Left Front as it won 12 parliamentary seats in 2014 and just five in the last elections which were held in 2019. Notably, the Left drew a blank in its bastions West Bengal and Tripura and managed to win just one seat in Kerala. Its other four seats came from Tamil Nadu, thanks to the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).

No doubt, the Left owed its success in West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala to the land reforms and it became the mannequin of the farming community initially.  But the reforms did not percolate down to the lowest strata of the society, particularly the lower caste people. The Left, which largely pandered to the interests of the working class, also did not try to expand its base.

Most importantly, its economic policies were much left to be desired. The flight of industrialists from the state due to persistent labour disputes and lock-outs and the government’s open support to trade unions led to the growing unemployment. The educated youth had no jobs. Bristling with anger, they, too, migrated. To add fuel to the fire was the sudden U-turn on the decades-old economic policies of the Left by the then Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee. His open embrace to industrialists by creating favourable policies like the Special Economic Zones and the land acquisition for a proposed Tata Motors automobile factory at Singur backfired. The Trinamool Congress led by the fiery Mamata Banerjee, which was waiting in the wings for long, smelt opportunity and accused the Left government of grabbing land of the poor villagers for the industrialists. The relentless campaign by the Trinamool struck a chord with the people, who had by now become disillusioned with the ruling communist dispensation. The people’s pent-up anger reflected in the 2011 Assembly elections when they punished the Left Front by voting the Trinamool to power. The Left’s defeat was so pronounced that the Front could win just 62 seats out of 294. Notably, the incumbent Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee lost his Jadavpur seat to his Trinamool rival. The BJP, which contested 289 seats, failed to open its account.

The story was more or less the same in the assembly elections that followed five years later in 2016, except the complete Trinamoolisation of the communists. The Left Front slumped to its worst tally winning just 32 seats whereas Trinamool added 27 more to take its tally to 211. The BJP made its debut by winning three seats.

Up till now, the Communists’ loss was Trinamool’s gain. But five years down the line, there seems to be churn happening in West Bengal politics. Those who switched their loyalty to Trinamool are dejected, as the change they expected did not happen. In Trinamool, they saw the extension of the communist rule. Their disappointment was evident when the BJP, which was a marginal player in the state politics till recently, made a splash in the 2019 parliamentary elections by winning 18 of the 42 seats. And most of the gains came at the expense of the Trinamool.

As the eight-phase elections are underway in West Bengal, the BJP has emerged as the main opponent to the Trinamool displacing both the Left and the Congress. It itself is a major victory for the saffron party which till the last assembly elections had just three seats in its kitty. So, what is left of the Left? Even the Left is groping for answers!

 (The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

BJP’s flip flop on CAA - A tactical ploy!

Will the Citizenship (Amendment) Act be a boon or spell doom for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in Assam? One will have to wait for May 2 when votes will be counted.  With the hustle and bustle of campaigning coming to an end ahead of the third and the final phase of voting in this remote part of the region on April 6, the issue holds utmost importance.  Why has the CAA become a political hot potato for the BJP in Assam which led to the party’s meteoric rise in the previous election?

While the BJP has been going gung-ho on CAA in the neighbouring West Bengal, the party has been very indifferent on the issue as far as Assam is concerned. Ironically, the issue was high on the agenda of the BJP before the elections were announced, so much so that Assam’s powerful minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who dons several hats for the BJP in the state and the entire northeastern region, would not miss any opportunity to rake up the issue even during the Corona pandemic when all kinds of activities, including political, came to a complete halt. Can the CAA have two different connotations for two different states and that too when they share their boundaries and have Hindu Bengali migrants, who stand to benefit because of the new Act?

Perplexing, isn’t it?

What has happened between 2016, when the BJP swept to power in Assam largely benefiting from the twin issue of the CAA and NRC (National Register of Citizens), and now when it is maintaining studied silence?

The BJP’s promise of detecting and deporting “illegal migrants” from Bangladesh if it came to power resonated with the people of the ethnic communities who voted in large numbers for the party in the 2016 elections. Though the process to update the National Register of Citizens began following a Supreme Court order in 2013, the BJP hijacked the issue and made it a poll plank. And as it turned out, it vaulted the BJP to unexpected political gains, resulting in the formation of its government for the first time in Assam.

Similarly, the CAA promised Indian citizenship to persecuted religious minorities who had migrated from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan and arrived in India before the end of December 2014. This also helped the BJP in garnering the votes of the Bengali Hindus, who account for nearly 25 percent of the state’s population.

In effect, the BJP secured the support of both the ethnic communities as well as the Bengali Hindus as can be seen by its performance. It improved its seat tally by 12 times winning 60 of the 126 assembly seats. Its winning strike rate was more than 70 per cent as it contested only 84 seats.

So far so good!

But all the hell broke loose when the CAA was passed by Parliament in December 2019. Several parts of Assam, particularly the Brahmaputra Valley, erupted in protest. The indigenous people feared the CAA would pave the way for citizenship to a large number of Hindu Bengali migrants which would not only reduce them to minorities, but also destroy their identity, culture and language. The indigenous people want 1971 as the cut-off date for citizenship as agreed to in the Assam Accord of 1985 following years of agitations.

The CAA runs counter to the provisions of the Assam Accord as it seeks to grant citizenship to Hindu, Christian, Buddhist, Jain, Sikh and Parsi migrants who have entered India illegally on or before December 31, 2014 and have stayed in the country for five years. Who stands to benefit from CAA?  It’s the illegal Bengali Hindu migrants from Bangladesh who have settled in large numbers across the state.

For the indigenous people, migrant is a migrant, no matter whether he is Hindu or Muslim, and he should be identified and deported. On the contrary, the CAA makes a clear distinction between a Hindu migrant and a Muslim migrant.

Now the twist in the tail! When the Supreme Court monitored NRC finally published the list on August 31, 2019, it excluded 19.06 lakh people and a majority of those left out from the list were believed to be Bengali Muslims and Hindus. If accepted, it would rob the BJP of votes of lakhs of Hindus who could not make it to the updated list. So, the NRC, which cost the government more than 1200 crore rupees, was trashed by the very same people who were votaries of detecting and deporting illegal migrants.

Its Catch 22 situation for the BJP! If it talks about the CAA, it invites the wrath of the indigenous people. Non-implementation of CAA is bound to upset the Hindu Bengalis who may not vote for the BJP as religiously as they did the last time. That explains the silence of the BJP on the two issues. While the CAA is missing from the BJP’s manifesto, the party has promised a new NRC with corrections to protect genuine Indian citizens and exclude all illegal immigrants.

It remains to be seen how the issue pans out in the elections. But one thing is for sure that it will be very difficult for the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the regional party that was born out of a movement against illegal immigrants, and now a junior ally of the BJP, to convince the voters on its volte face on CAA. Interestingly, Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal was with the AGP which emerged as a political party from the All Assam Students Union (AASU) which spearheaded the anti-foreigners’ movement from 1979 to 1985 before he joined the BJP in 2011. 

If the BJP manages to overcome its strategic silence on these two issues and springs a surprise, the victory will be seen more as a referendum of the politics of the NDA government at the Centre than its performance in the state. 

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

GOVT’S U-TURN ON SMALL SAVINGS SCHEMES: POLITICS OVER ECONOMY!

 

The government’s move to reverse its decision regarding cut in the small savings schemes by 50 to 110 basis points for the first quarter of the financial year starting April 1, 2021 in less than 24 hours stems from its fears of the political fall-outs.  At a time, when the elections to four states and a Union Territory are underway, the proposed move would have given ammunition to the opposition parties to up the ante against the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government for following “anti-people” policies which would have hurt its political fortunes. That explains the government’s swift move to reverse its proposed decision to avoid any political backlash.

The proposed move to reduce interest rates on small savings schemes would have certainly hurt the small investors who have parked their money in the schemes which entail higher interest rates than the regular fixed deposit. Moreover, the investors also benefit from tax exemption offered by these schemes which is not the case with fixed deposit. With inflation inching further, these small savings schemes are the only ray of hope for small investors.

When a large number of people are yet to recover from the shock of pandemic-caused lockdowns which hurt them badly, the proposed move would have certainly been a double whammy for them and the resultant anger could halt the resurgent march of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the elections.

Should the small investors then cheer the government’s U-turn?

Certainly not! The government’s decision to revisit its earlier announcement is just a temporary move which will be restored when the election process is over. The government has just put it on hold. For, the cut in the small savings schemes is the need of the hour which is in the interest of both the people and the nation.

Banks, particularly the public sector ones, have not passed the benefit of the repo rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India, meant to stimulate various aspects of economic growth, to customers. They fear that it will hit their margin if they do so in view of the rate on deposits. Their fears are not completely unfounded as they are struggling with bad loans whereas non-banking institutions are facing solvency issues. Therefore, instead of adjusting their lending rate, the banks have done just the opposite by raising their deposit rates to collect funds to keep their balance sheets healthy.

The banks can soften their lending rate, which is vital to kick start the economy as it will increase the private consumption and offer liquidity access to all sectors hit by the pandemic, only if they reduce the deposit rates. Though there has been uptick in demand which collapsed following the pandemic, it needs to be sustained. Still, people are conscious about spending as income for all dropped to the bare minimum during the pandemic which led to a complete halt of the economic activities. 

The RBI has done its part by bringing the repo rate down to just four percent which is the lowest repo rate in the last two decades. Today, the banks are in a very advantageous position as they borrow money from the RBI at a much lower interest rate. When the RBI lowers the repo rate, the commercial banks are expected to pass this benefit to their customers by reducing the interest rates on the loans they offer. But it is not happening as the banks and financial institutions are still hesitant to pass on the entire rate cuts to the borrowers. 

It will be important to understand that the rate cuts make loans cheaper allowing people to pay a lesser amount of interest on loans – whether it is personal loans, car loans or home loans. The resultant saving for any person is much more than what he earns on his money parked in the banks.

That’s not all. If the banks pass on the rate cuts to the industry, it not only gives a boost to the industry, the consumers also stand to benefit in the end as the prices of commodities also become cheaper  due to lower interest rates.

The advantages of rate cuts thus outweigh the benefits of higher deposit rates as it boosts the demand side of the economy and spur consumption, the twin necessities for the revival of any economy. 

One can understand the U-turn by the Finance Ministry as the ruling BJP can ill-afford to anger the common man right now. It is also equally important for the common man to understand that the high deposit rate regime will do no good either to him or to the nation. Let the poll mania be over, the cut in the small savings schemes will be back on the table.

 

BJP HAS PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE IN WEST BENGAL

 

Once the dominant parties in the West Bengal state politics – the Congress and the Left Front stand atrophied and are fighting for their relevance. The Trinamool Congress, ruling the state since 2011, is betraying signs of nervousness after a large-scale exodus of party leaders and workers to the resurgent Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).  Backed by well-oiled machinery with the able and proactive support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP looks the most confident of all the parties as it unleashes a psychological warfare.  True to the Trinamool’s borrowed slogan from neighbouring Bangladesh “Khela Hobe”, West Bengal elections will certainly be a cracker of a match, no matter who wins or loses.

The country’s Home Minister and BJP’s chief strategist Amit Shah’s presumptuous claim of winning 26 of the 30 seats in the first phase of the state’s polling and bagging 200 of the 294 seats is a tactical ploy to turn the tide in his party’s favour and influencing the still-to-be-decided voters, besides denting the morale of the Trinamool activists.  The BJP’s renewed confidence stems from its scintillating performance in the 2019 parliamentary elections when it made major inroads into the state by winning 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats, clearly a paradigm shift in the state's political narrative.  In its marauding march, the Trinamool suffered the most as it lost 12 seats from its previous tally of 34, and all to the BJP. The Congress’ downfall continued as it won just two from its previous tally of four seats, whereas the Left Front sank completely drawing a zero. The losses of all these three parties were BJP’s gains signifying that it was eating into the traditional votes of not only one, but all the parties. In a way, the BJP announced its arrival in the state and that too in a very formidable way.

Therefore, the nervousness of Trinamool and Mamata Banerjee, who is the one (wo)man army in the party, in particular, is palpable.  After breaching the citadel of the Left Front, which had an uninterrupted rule of 34 years, the Trinamool felt tremors in its turf for the first time since 2011. The BJP had inflicted an agonising pain on it, which was to become acute in the subsequent years. The 2019 parliamentary elections rattled the Trinamool so much that its trusted lieutenants started ditching Didi and made a beeline to the BJP in droves. Whether they went on their own or were hijacked by the BJP is an altogether different story. In its drive to spread its footprints in the state, the BJP is employing all the four methods of Sam, Dam, Dand, Bhed roughly translated in English as the carrot and the stick policy.

So, what is driving people towards BJP?

The Trinamool was born out of the frustration of the people towards the communists under whose rule the industries dried up following long labour disputes and lock-outs. Trade unionism became an euphemism which had the tacit support of the government of the time leading to the migration of industrialists like Tatas, Birlas, Thapars, Singhanias, Bangurs etc. While land reforms and Panchayati Raj system in rural areas and pro-labour policies of the government in cities paid rich dividends to the Left Front, the subsequent closure of industries led to growing unemployment.  Violent attacks by the Left Front and the Congress activists against each other became a new norm and the state slipped into a complete lawlessness. The educated youth of the state became increasingly frustrated with the state of affairs and started moving to other states and countries.

With the Congress losing its steam, there was a political vacuum which was filled swiftly by the Trinamool which rode to power on the back of a massive and successful land agitation in Singur and Nandigram.  In its 'Ma, Mati, Manush' (Mother, Land, People) slogan-cum-promise, the people saw a ray of hope and an anticipated change.  But it certainly was not a Poriborton which the people voted for. The only change that came about was the transformation of the government. Otherwise, status-quo remained.

Welfare politics, doles, lawlessness, corruption, appeasement towards minorities, read Muslims, who form close to 30% of the population, is all that Trinamool stands for. There was no end to political violence. The rise of Trinamool saw frequent violent clashes between its supporters and the communists which in later years became fierce with the BJP when the latter started spreading its wings.

In effect, the change in government from the Left Front to the Trinamool did not result in the real Poriborton as the Mamata-led government was somewhat a slightly improved version of the communist avatar.  Singur and Nandigram certainly spelt political fortunes for the Trinamool, but it also exposed the party’s anti-industry instance. The abandoning of the Nano-car plant at Singur by the Tatas did not go down well with other industrialists who developed cold feet in investing their hard-earned money in the state where their investment was not perceived to be secure. Investments lead to direct and indirect jobs and have a spill-over effect into other economic opportunities.  So, in the absence of investments, the space for jobs shrunk in the state forcing the educated youth and unskilled people to look for greener postures elsewhere.

Herein lies the success story of the BJP. It tapped the exasperation of the people and aggrandised the advantage of a double-engine government (both at the Centre and the state) which could lead to all-round economic development.  It also latched onto the Trinamool’s lack of desire to change the status quo and promised the real Poriborton besides engineering its social maths.

The downfall of the communists led to the rise of the Trinamool. Who benefits more if Trinamool starts disintegrating? No prizes for guessing!

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

ASSAM -- TRICKY WICKET TO BAT ON

Much water has flown down the Brahmaputra since 2016 when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) swept to power in Assam riding on the massive anti-incumbency wave against the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government led by the veteran and longest-serving Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. 2021 is certainly no 2016. Much has changed since then. There was a severe anti-UPA wave in the country following the massive drubbing of the Congress-led government at the Centre in 2014. The anger of the people was so pronounced that many Congress-ruled governments were also swept away in the subsequent state elections and Assam was no exception where Tarun Gogoi was at the helm for three consecutive five-year terms. The BJP victory was a foregone conclusion in 2016 even before the votes were cast.

The BJP on its own came close to the half mark of 126 seats when it won 60 seats, a massive jump of 55 seats from the last election. The victory was also remarkable because the BJP contested only 84 seats in 2016 as against the 120 in the 2011 elections. Interestingly, the Congress, which managed to bag just 26 seats, a net loss of 53 seats from the last election, secured 1.4 percent more popular votes than its rival. The BJP’s net gain of 55 seats came largely at the expense of the Congress which lost 53 seats. 

This time, the dynamics have changed. The stakes are high for the BJP in Assam, the only state of the four states and a Union Territory going to polls, where it is in power. Unlike the previous election, there does not seem to be any wave and that explains whirlwind tours of the state by the top leadership consisting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party president J.P. Nadda.

On the back foot over the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA), the BJP has put the two crucial issues on the backburner which contributed to its major victory in the last election. Several parts of Assam, particularly the Brahmaputra Valley, were rocked by protests after the CAA was passed by Parliament in December 2019. The CAA promised Indian citizenship to persecuted religious minorities who had migrated from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan and arrived in India before the end of December 2014.

The indigenous people of Assam fear it will primarily benefit illegal Bengali Hindu migrants from Bangladesh who have settled in large numbers across the state and if they are granted citizenship, they will outnumber Assamese-speaking people in the state and their concerns are not unfounded.

The BJP backtracked on the NRC when out of the 1.9 million people excluded from the NRC were 1.3 million Hindus and indigenous tribes. That also explains why the BJP has rejected the NRC in Assam and wants a new one. It remains to be seen whether the BJP’s silence on these two issues will cost it the votes of both the indigenous people as well as the Hindu Bengalis.

Sensing the BJP’s dilemma, the state’s main opposition Congress party, stitched an alliance with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by controversial Badruddin Ajmal besides announcing to repeal the CAA and strengthen the administrative and legal management to deal with the NRC.  This is the first time the Congress has entered into a pre-poll pact with the AIUDF which has a considerable clout in the Muslim-dominated areas. According to Census 2011, Muslims form 34.22 percent of the total population of Assam and decide the electoral fate of 23 seats. In the last election, the AIUDF vote share was the third highest after the Congress and the BJP and bagged 13 seats, one seat less than the BJP’s closest ally, the AGP.  

The Congress also brought in its fold the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which was dumped by the BJP in favour of the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) last year. This decision seems to be puzzling as the BPF, which was an ally of the BJP in the last assembly elections, had a strike rate of 100 percent winning all the 12 seats that it contested.

Going by the results of the last election, the Congress-led alliance looks stronger on paper. The vote percentage of the Congress (30.9%), the AIUDF (13%) and BPF (3.9%) besides the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Left parties is better than the BJP with 29.5% votes and the AGP (8.1%). The BJP’s new ally, the UPPL, contested four seats in the last election and lost all.

However, the Congress will desperately miss the services of the veteran Tarun Gogoi, who passed away last year. There has been a leadership vacuum in the party since Gogoi’s death. No other leader commands the mass base in the state and that explains the decision of the Congress not to project its chief ministerial candidate.  The Congress’ best bet is Gaurav Gogoi, son of the departed leader, but it will be a litmus test not only for him, but the Congress as well. On the contrary, the BJP has Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and the clever strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma, a former Congress leader who switched sides in 2015 and joined the BJP in protest against Gogoi’s decision to promote his son at his expense. 

Making their debut in this election are two parties -- the Assam Jatiya Parishad and the Raijor Dal – born out of the anti-CAA protests and who will be contesting jointly. Both the parties have also the support of the once powerful All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) which spearheaded the anti-foreigners’ movement from 1979 to 1985.  The former Chief Minister Prafulla Mahanta, who has been denied the ticket by the AGP, is likely to put his weight behind the new parties. While it is too early to say what will be the impact of these two new parties, they will certainly play a spoilsport to the parties seen withering on the foreigners’ issue.

All said and done, the poll arithmetic is not as simple as one thinks it to be. The undecided voters sometimes turn the tide.  As of now, opinion polls have given an edge to the BJP-led alliance, which certainly holds an advantage being at the power at the state as well as at the Centre. But the BJP leadership’s claim of winning 100 seats is certainly a far cry.

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)