BJP’s flip flop on CAA - A tactical ploy!

Will the Citizenship (Amendment) Act be a boon or spell doom for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in Assam? One will have to wait for May 2 when votes will be counted.  With the hustle and bustle of campaigning coming to an end ahead of the third and the final phase of voting in this remote part of the region on April 6, the issue holds utmost importance.  Why has the CAA become a political hot potato for the BJP in Assam which led to the party’s meteoric rise in the previous election?

While the BJP has been going gung-ho on CAA in the neighbouring West Bengal, the party has been very indifferent on the issue as far as Assam is concerned. Ironically, the issue was high on the agenda of the BJP before the elections were announced, so much so that Assam’s powerful minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who dons several hats for the BJP in the state and the entire northeastern region, would not miss any opportunity to rake up the issue even during the Corona pandemic when all kinds of activities, including political, came to a complete halt. Can the CAA have two different connotations for two different states and that too when they share their boundaries and have Hindu Bengali migrants, who stand to benefit because of the new Act?

Perplexing, isn’t it?

What has happened between 2016, when the BJP swept to power in Assam largely benefiting from the twin issue of the CAA and NRC (National Register of Citizens), and now when it is maintaining studied silence?

The BJP’s promise of detecting and deporting “illegal migrants” from Bangladesh if it came to power resonated with the people of the ethnic communities who voted in large numbers for the party in the 2016 elections. Though the process to update the National Register of Citizens began following a Supreme Court order in 2013, the BJP hijacked the issue and made it a poll plank. And as it turned out, it vaulted the BJP to unexpected political gains, resulting in the formation of its government for the first time in Assam.

Similarly, the CAA promised Indian citizenship to persecuted religious minorities who had migrated from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan and arrived in India before the end of December 2014. This also helped the BJP in garnering the votes of the Bengali Hindus, who account for nearly 25 percent of the state’s population.

In effect, the BJP secured the support of both the ethnic communities as well as the Bengali Hindus as can be seen by its performance. It improved its seat tally by 12 times winning 60 of the 126 assembly seats. Its winning strike rate was more than 70 per cent as it contested only 84 seats.

So far so good!

But all the hell broke loose when the CAA was passed by Parliament in December 2019. Several parts of Assam, particularly the Brahmaputra Valley, erupted in protest. The indigenous people feared the CAA would pave the way for citizenship to a large number of Hindu Bengali migrants which would not only reduce them to minorities, but also destroy their identity, culture and language. The indigenous people want 1971 as the cut-off date for citizenship as agreed to in the Assam Accord of 1985 following years of agitations.

The CAA runs counter to the provisions of the Assam Accord as it seeks to grant citizenship to Hindu, Christian, Buddhist, Jain, Sikh and Parsi migrants who have entered India illegally on or before December 31, 2014 and have stayed in the country for five years. Who stands to benefit from CAA?  It’s the illegal Bengali Hindu migrants from Bangladesh who have settled in large numbers across the state.

For the indigenous people, migrant is a migrant, no matter whether he is Hindu or Muslim, and he should be identified and deported. On the contrary, the CAA makes a clear distinction between a Hindu migrant and a Muslim migrant.

Now the twist in the tail! When the Supreme Court monitored NRC finally published the list on August 31, 2019, it excluded 19.06 lakh people and a majority of those left out from the list were believed to be Bengali Muslims and Hindus. If accepted, it would rob the BJP of votes of lakhs of Hindus who could not make it to the updated list. So, the NRC, which cost the government more than 1200 crore rupees, was trashed by the very same people who were votaries of detecting and deporting illegal migrants.

Its Catch 22 situation for the BJP! If it talks about the CAA, it invites the wrath of the indigenous people. Non-implementation of CAA is bound to upset the Hindu Bengalis who may not vote for the BJP as religiously as they did the last time. That explains the silence of the BJP on the two issues. While the CAA is missing from the BJP’s manifesto, the party has promised a new NRC with corrections to protect genuine Indian citizens and exclude all illegal immigrants.

It remains to be seen how the issue pans out in the elections. But one thing is for sure that it will be very difficult for the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the regional party that was born out of a movement against illegal immigrants, and now a junior ally of the BJP, to convince the voters on its volte face on CAA. Interestingly, Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal was with the AGP which emerged as a political party from the All Assam Students Union (AASU) which spearheaded the anti-foreigners’ movement from 1979 to 1985 before he joined the BJP in 2011. 

If the BJP manages to overcome its strategic silence on these two issues and springs a surprise, the victory will be seen more as a referendum of the politics of the NDA government at the Centre than its performance in the state. 

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

ASSAM -- TRICKY WICKET TO BAT ON

Much water has flown down the Brahmaputra since 2016 when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) swept to power in Assam riding on the massive anti-incumbency wave against the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government led by the veteran and longest-serving Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. 2021 is certainly no 2016. Much has changed since then. There was a severe anti-UPA wave in the country following the massive drubbing of the Congress-led government at the Centre in 2014. The anger of the people was so pronounced that many Congress-ruled governments were also swept away in the subsequent state elections and Assam was no exception where Tarun Gogoi was at the helm for three consecutive five-year terms. The BJP victory was a foregone conclusion in 2016 even before the votes were cast.

The BJP on its own came close to the half mark of 126 seats when it won 60 seats, a massive jump of 55 seats from the last election. The victory was also remarkable because the BJP contested only 84 seats in 2016 as against the 120 in the 2011 elections. Interestingly, the Congress, which managed to bag just 26 seats, a net loss of 53 seats from the last election, secured 1.4 percent more popular votes than its rival. The BJP’s net gain of 55 seats came largely at the expense of the Congress which lost 53 seats. 

This time, the dynamics have changed. The stakes are high for the BJP in Assam, the only state of the four states and a Union Territory going to polls, where it is in power. Unlike the previous election, there does not seem to be any wave and that explains whirlwind tours of the state by the top leadership consisting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party president J.P. Nadda.

On the back foot over the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA), the BJP has put the two crucial issues on the backburner which contributed to its major victory in the last election. Several parts of Assam, particularly the Brahmaputra Valley, were rocked by protests after the CAA was passed by Parliament in December 2019. The CAA promised Indian citizenship to persecuted religious minorities who had migrated from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan and arrived in India before the end of December 2014.

The indigenous people of Assam fear it will primarily benefit illegal Bengali Hindu migrants from Bangladesh who have settled in large numbers across the state and if they are granted citizenship, they will outnumber Assamese-speaking people in the state and their concerns are not unfounded.

The BJP backtracked on the NRC when out of the 1.9 million people excluded from the NRC were 1.3 million Hindus and indigenous tribes. That also explains why the BJP has rejected the NRC in Assam and wants a new one. It remains to be seen whether the BJP’s silence on these two issues will cost it the votes of both the indigenous people as well as the Hindu Bengalis.

Sensing the BJP’s dilemma, the state’s main opposition Congress party, stitched an alliance with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by controversial Badruddin Ajmal besides announcing to repeal the CAA and strengthen the administrative and legal management to deal with the NRC.  This is the first time the Congress has entered into a pre-poll pact with the AIUDF which has a considerable clout in the Muslim-dominated areas. According to Census 2011, Muslims form 34.22 percent of the total population of Assam and decide the electoral fate of 23 seats. In the last election, the AIUDF vote share was the third highest after the Congress and the BJP and bagged 13 seats, one seat less than the BJP’s closest ally, the AGP.  

The Congress also brought in its fold the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which was dumped by the BJP in favour of the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) last year. This decision seems to be puzzling as the BPF, which was an ally of the BJP in the last assembly elections, had a strike rate of 100 percent winning all the 12 seats that it contested.

Going by the results of the last election, the Congress-led alliance looks stronger on paper. The vote percentage of the Congress (30.9%), the AIUDF (13%) and BPF (3.9%) besides the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Left parties is better than the BJP with 29.5% votes and the AGP (8.1%). The BJP’s new ally, the UPPL, contested four seats in the last election and lost all.

However, the Congress will desperately miss the services of the veteran Tarun Gogoi, who passed away last year. There has been a leadership vacuum in the party since Gogoi’s death. No other leader commands the mass base in the state and that explains the decision of the Congress not to project its chief ministerial candidate.  The Congress’ best bet is Gaurav Gogoi, son of the departed leader, but it will be a litmus test not only for him, but the Congress as well. On the contrary, the BJP has Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and the clever strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma, a former Congress leader who switched sides in 2015 and joined the BJP in protest against Gogoi’s decision to promote his son at his expense. 

Making their debut in this election are two parties -- the Assam Jatiya Parishad and the Raijor Dal – born out of the anti-CAA protests and who will be contesting jointly. Both the parties have also the support of the once powerful All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) which spearheaded the anti-foreigners’ movement from 1979 to 1985.  The former Chief Minister Prafulla Mahanta, who has been denied the ticket by the AGP, is likely to put his weight behind the new parties. While it is too early to say what will be the impact of these two new parties, they will certainly play a spoilsport to the parties seen withering on the foreigners’ issue.

All said and done, the poll arithmetic is not as simple as one thinks it to be. The undecided voters sometimes turn the tide.  As of now, opinion polls have given an edge to the BJP-led alliance, which certainly holds an advantage being at the power at the state as well as at the Centre. But the BJP leadership’s claim of winning 100 seats is certainly a far cry.

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)