Sometimes, it makes sense to be a fence sitter and more so when such an important and make-or-mar ‘khela’ is on in West Bengal. One is reminded of the epic Wimbledon 2019 Men's Single Final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, which was among the greatest of all time not only in the annals of Wimbledon, but in the history of tennis. A roller-coaster match, which Djokovic won 7-6 (7-6), 1-6, 7-6 (7-4), 4-6, 13-12 (7-3) after a gruelling 4 hours and 57 minutes! Besides being the longest Wimbledon final, it was also the first ever deciding-set tiebreak at 12-12 in singles in the tournament’s history.
Interestingly, the Congress and the Left Front, which have ruled the state for 55 years between them, are not in the picture this time. So much so that the top leadership of both the parties chose to stay away from the polls, leaving the campaigning to their local leaders! The Gandhi siblings – Rahul and Priyanka – were conspicuous by their absence in the state. Rahul, who addressed only one rally in the state on April 14 and that too when half of the eight-phase polls was already over, later decided to suspend campaign in the wake of rising Corona cases. Similarly, the ageing central leadership of the Left Front gave a complete miss to the campaigning in the state.
Why did both the Congress and the Left chicken out and not even put up a fight in Bengal? Were they scared of the imminent humiliating rout or was it a tactical ploy to back out?
The sole agenda of all the parties both at the central and state level is to defeat the Hindu party which is growing in strength, resulting in a decapacitated Opposition. That also explains the alliance between political parties which were not long ago cutting each other’s throats. The renewed bonhomie between the Congress and the Left parties in Assam and West Bengal is not based on any principle, but largely out of the fear of a complete annihilation. The coming together of the two in Assam and West Bengal while fighting each other in Kerala is self-explanatory.
Aware that they will not be able to pose any challenge to the BJP, both the Congress and the Left chose to remain silent warriors as part of a strategy and let the Trinamool slug it out. The grand design is not to allow the Muslim vote to be split. All the three – the Congress, Left Front and now Trinamool -- have played the ‘Tushtikaran’ (appeasement) politics to stay afloat in the state. According to the 2011 Census, Muslim population in West Bengal is 2.47 crore (27.01 percent) of total 9.13 crore. In 10 years since, one can safely assume that the percentage of the Muslim population will be at least 30 percent, if not more. All the three parties have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Muslim vote in the past as the minority community chose to vote en masse for any party which offered maximum concessions. That they wield influence in close to 100 of the 294 assembly seats makes them a powerful bloc.
As things stand today, arithmetic favours Trinamool, but it has been seen in the past that sometimes chemistry wins over arithmetic. Whatever is the election outcome; this bout will produce an intense seesaw battle. Who played the better rally will be known when the election results are declared.
As long as the BJP was a marginal player, all the three parties tried to outdo each other in soliciting the Muslim vote. Over the years, the Muslim voter has also become smart. Rather than putting all their eggs in one basket, read political party, the Muslims have been voting for the candidates instead which is why there has been a gradual increase in the number of Muslim candidates put up by all the political parties and the BJP is also no exception. The BJP has fielded nine Muslim candidates this time as compared to 42 by the Trinamool.
But the arithmetic has changed since the BJP juggernaut rolled in the state. With both the Congress and the Left teetering on the brink, there is a growing realisation that a dent in the Muslim vote will serve the interests of the BJP only. Therefore, the two have decided to go slow sending out a clear signal to the Muslims who to vote for if the BJP has to be stopped.
The Muslim vote has played an important role behind the Trinamool’s rise to power. If the Muslims realise that the Communists and the Congress are no better than decorative players, they would like to make their votes count and throw their weight behind the Trinamool. In such a scenario, the real fight will skittle down to close to 200 non-Muslim influential seats.
Then there is an important segment of women who constitute about 49 per cent of the electorate and who have been nurtured by the Mamata Banerjee government which runs close to 200 women-centric schemes. The women voters have steadfastly been the avid supporters of Didi since she breached the citadel of the Communists in the state. However, the division in this significant constituent can’t be ruled out this time as the state government is accused of the poor implementation of schemes amid reports of commission demanded by the Trinamool agents from the beneficiaries. It is too early to say whether this anger will result in shifting of the allegiance.
As things stand today, arithmetic favours Trinamool, but it has been seen in the past that sometimes chemistry wins over arithmetic. Whatever is the election outcome; this bout will produce an intense seesaw battle. Who played the better rally will be known when the election results are declared.
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