BJP HAS PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE IN WEST BENGAL

 

Once the dominant parties in the West Bengal state politics – the Congress and the Left Front stand atrophied and are fighting for their relevance. The Trinamool Congress, ruling the state since 2011, is betraying signs of nervousness after a large-scale exodus of party leaders and workers to the resurgent Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).  Backed by well-oiled machinery with the able and proactive support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP looks the most confident of all the parties as it unleashes a psychological warfare.  True to the Trinamool’s borrowed slogan from neighbouring Bangladesh “Khela Hobe”, West Bengal elections will certainly be a cracker of a match, no matter who wins or loses.

The country’s Home Minister and BJP’s chief strategist Amit Shah’s presumptuous claim of winning 26 of the 30 seats in the first phase of the state’s polling and bagging 200 of the 294 seats is a tactical ploy to turn the tide in his party’s favour and influencing the still-to-be-decided voters, besides denting the morale of the Trinamool activists.  The BJP’s renewed confidence stems from its scintillating performance in the 2019 parliamentary elections when it made major inroads into the state by winning 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats, clearly a paradigm shift in the state's political narrative.  In its marauding march, the Trinamool suffered the most as it lost 12 seats from its previous tally of 34, and all to the BJP. The Congress’ downfall continued as it won just two from its previous tally of four seats, whereas the Left Front sank completely drawing a zero. The losses of all these three parties were BJP’s gains signifying that it was eating into the traditional votes of not only one, but all the parties. In a way, the BJP announced its arrival in the state and that too in a very formidable way.

Therefore, the nervousness of Trinamool and Mamata Banerjee, who is the one (wo)man army in the party, in particular, is palpable.  After breaching the citadel of the Left Front, which had an uninterrupted rule of 34 years, the Trinamool felt tremors in its turf for the first time since 2011. The BJP had inflicted an agonising pain on it, which was to become acute in the subsequent years. The 2019 parliamentary elections rattled the Trinamool so much that its trusted lieutenants started ditching Didi and made a beeline to the BJP in droves. Whether they went on their own or were hijacked by the BJP is an altogether different story. In its drive to spread its footprints in the state, the BJP is employing all the four methods of Sam, Dam, Dand, Bhed roughly translated in English as the carrot and the stick policy.

So, what is driving people towards BJP?

The Trinamool was born out of the frustration of the people towards the communists under whose rule the industries dried up following long labour disputes and lock-outs. Trade unionism became an euphemism which had the tacit support of the government of the time leading to the migration of industrialists like Tatas, Birlas, Thapars, Singhanias, Bangurs etc. While land reforms and Panchayati Raj system in rural areas and pro-labour policies of the government in cities paid rich dividends to the Left Front, the subsequent closure of industries led to growing unemployment.  Violent attacks by the Left Front and the Congress activists against each other became a new norm and the state slipped into a complete lawlessness. The educated youth of the state became increasingly frustrated with the state of affairs and started moving to other states and countries.

With the Congress losing its steam, there was a political vacuum which was filled swiftly by the Trinamool which rode to power on the back of a massive and successful land agitation in Singur and Nandigram.  In its 'Ma, Mati, Manush' (Mother, Land, People) slogan-cum-promise, the people saw a ray of hope and an anticipated change.  But it certainly was not a Poriborton which the people voted for. The only change that came about was the transformation of the government. Otherwise, status-quo remained.

Welfare politics, doles, lawlessness, corruption, appeasement towards minorities, read Muslims, who form close to 30% of the population, is all that Trinamool stands for. There was no end to political violence. The rise of Trinamool saw frequent violent clashes between its supporters and the communists which in later years became fierce with the BJP when the latter started spreading its wings.

In effect, the change in government from the Left Front to the Trinamool did not result in the real Poriborton as the Mamata-led government was somewhat a slightly improved version of the communist avatar.  Singur and Nandigram certainly spelt political fortunes for the Trinamool, but it also exposed the party’s anti-industry instance. The abandoning of the Nano-car plant at Singur by the Tatas did not go down well with other industrialists who developed cold feet in investing their hard-earned money in the state where their investment was not perceived to be secure. Investments lead to direct and indirect jobs and have a spill-over effect into other economic opportunities.  So, in the absence of investments, the space for jobs shrunk in the state forcing the educated youth and unskilled people to look for greener postures elsewhere.

Herein lies the success story of the BJP. It tapped the exasperation of the people and aggrandised the advantage of a double-engine government (both at the Centre and the state) which could lead to all-round economic development.  It also latched onto the Trinamool’s lack of desire to change the status quo and promised the real Poriborton besides engineering its social maths.

The downfall of the communists led to the rise of the Trinamool. Who benefits more if Trinamool starts disintegrating? No prizes for guessing!

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

WHAT A COUP IN MAHARASHTRA?

Who says silence is not golden in Indian politics? Just a few hours ago, when it seemed that the Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress had all but stitched together a fragile alliance to form a government in Maharashtra, people woke up from slumber to a new reality and a new government. Political pundits failed to read the mistaken silence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since Devendra Fadnavis resigned as chief minister following the collapse of talks with its oldest alliance partner, the Shiv Sena, in the aftermath of a hung assembly after elections. The BJP master strategists led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah were secretly at work without even giving an iota of hint what was cooking.

Pix courtesy: seelatest.com

The Indian media jumped the gun and rushed to anoint NCP chief Sharad Pawar as the modern-day Chanakya for succeeding in cajoling the Congress to join what critics termed as an “unthinkable and unprincipled alliance”. But it was the real Chanakya Amit Shah who sprang a surprise by breaking in in Pawar’s own party. In fact, it was the Sena which was very apprehensive of the BJP’s attempts of horse-trading and poaching of its newly elected MLAs and had therefore huddled them to the safe environs of the Congress-ruled Rajasthan. But none had the inkling of the BJP’s master stroke that it could strike at the heart of the NCP and wean away Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar. 

As things stand, it is now almost certain that Ajit will walk out on his parent party with more than 18 MLAs to avoid anti-defection law either by forming a new party or merging the entire block with the BJP. The BJP, which fell short of 40 seats in the 288-member house, will also need support of some smaller parties and independents, some of them BJP rebels, to prove majority. That the BJP has already done its homework by enlisting their support is a foregone conclusion.

In the latest twist of turns, the chief protagonist Sharad Pawar, who had almost scripted an unimaginable story of bringing the two warring parties Shiv Sena and Congress together, has been left red-faced. Never in his dreams could he have imagined that that his nephew would do a Vibhishana to him! But it is surprising that the Maratha strongman, who himself had been giving conflicting signals to the media in recent days regarding the government formation, could not read the riot act.

pix courtesy: newsclick.in

That all was not well between the uncle and nephew was not a hidden secret. Sharad Pawar’s ambition of promoting his daughter Supriya Sule at the expense of his nephew never went down well with the latter. The early signs of rift appeared in 2009 when Sharad Pawar appointed Chhagan Bhujbal as the deputy chief minister in the Ashok Chavan-led government after the Congress and NCP swept the polls. Miffed by Sharad Pawar’s decision to cut him to size, Ajit showed up his clout when he secured the support of a majority of the NCP MLAs a year later forcing his uncle to instate him as the deputy chief minister replacing Bhujbal. Since then, Ajit has been working to come out of the shadow of his dominant uncle.

Early this year, Ajit took some political positions which did not gel with the official policy of the NCP. Not only did he support the Modi government’s decision to abrogate the controversial Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir, he went on to demand that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir should also be made a part of India.

What surprises the most is that the senior Pawar did not even get a whiff of his nephew’s designs who was at the helm of the talks along with him leading to an almost certain Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress government! Till a month-and-a-half ago, Ajit must have endeared himself to his uncle after he resigned as an MLA after Sharad Pawar’s name got embroiled in the 25,000 crore rupee Maharashtra State Cooperative Bank scam saying he was perturbed over the allegations against the latter. He also owed his deputy chief ministership to his uncle then.

But, as they say, politics is a strange game like cricket where fortunes change in just a matter of time. The same thing happened in Maharashtra. While Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar and Sonia Gandhi might be ruing for taking their own sweet time to firm up the alliance, the Modi-Shah duo should be commended for thumbing the nose of the opposition and walking away with the trophy. For, everything is fair in love and war. And this was Maharashtra, the second largest state after Uttar Pradesh which sends maximum MPs to the Lok Sabha, where political stakes are very high for all the parties.

BJP- SHIV SENA MARRIAGE HAS GONE HORRIBLY WRONG

Mistrust, lies and deceit! This is how the BJP-Shiv Sena relationship can be summed up. It has been more than 10 days since the Maharashtra election results were announced; the two parties have not able to consummate their marriage which seemingly is headed for a disaster. There is no doubt that the voters, though sceptical about the alliance, still gave their verdict in favour of the two parties. The failure of both the parties to sink their differences to form a government and their open accusation of lies against each other portends a rocky if not a failed marriage.

The two parties have been sharing love-hate relationship since they entered into an alliance first in 1989 for the Lok Sabha as well as Maharashtra state elections. The bromance did not last long and both the parties parted ways in 2014 over bitter differences regarding seat sharing. Both the BJP and Shiv Sena went to polls independently with none garnering enough seats to form a government on its own. Shiv Sena, which misread the pulse of the voters, contested in 282 of the 288 assembly seats winning only 63. The BJP, which contested lesser number of seats (260), emerged as the single largest party winning 122 seats. The Sena, which had then claimed to play the role of opposition, soon had a change of heart and within two months kissed and patched up with the BJP to join the government in the state in December 2014.

pix courtesy: moneycontrol.com

Then again in January 2018, Shiv Sena raised the banner of revolt and announced to contest all future elections, including the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and Maharashtra assembly elections, alone. But by the time the 2019 general elections approached, it made a U-turn and announced the alliance with the BJP in February 2019 for the general elections as well as Maharashtra state assembly elections.

Shiv Sena, which largely draws its strength from the Maratha community, has failed to replicate its success in 1995 when it contested 169 seats and won 73. 

The two parties have been sharing love-hate relationship since they entered into an alliance first in 1989 for the Lok Sabha as well as Maharashtra state elections ...  Has the Shiv Sena realised the dangers and pains of an ill-assorted marriage and wants to move on?

It has not being able to penetrate in rural areas where its success rate is not too impressive. But it is driven by personal ambition to rule the state on its own. This explains the reason behind Shiv Sena’s demand for a 50:50 formula and rotation of chief minister post even though it won almost half of the seats in comparison to the BJP in the just concluded elections. While the BJP bagged 105 seats, the Shiv Sena won 56, closely followed by National Congress Party (54) and the Congress 44 seats.

Though both the parties together have 161 seats, way past the half-way mark of 144, the Sena is playing hardball by demanding an equal share in the ministry besides the chief ministerial post for half the term largely due to the BJP’s tally dipping from 122 in the last assembly elections.  With November 9 being the deadline by which time the government has to be sworn in otherwise the state will be headed to President’s rule, it remains to be seen which of the two saffron parties blinks first or will they go separate ways.

Politics is an unfamiliar territory where strange bedfellows become welcome friends. With so much of heart burn and mud-slinging from both sides, who knows Shiv Sena may well spring a surprise and realise its dream by coaxing the NCP and Congress to do the unimaginable. For, the enemy of my enemy is my friend! Even while remaining with the BJP, the Shiv Sena has been its shrillest opposition taking on the Narendra Modi government at the centre and Devendra Fadnavis in the state on several issues. Has the Shiv Sena realised the dangers and pains of an ill-assorted marriage and wants to move on? Only time will tell.

CONGRESS'S WOES: PRESENT TENSE AND FUTURE UNCERTAIN

India’s grand opposition Congress party seems to be inflicted with conspicuous confusion with very little clarity on the direction it wants to move. Amidst its bid to arrest the sagging fortunes and improve its presence, the party is simultaneously conspiring for the defeat of the National Democratic Alliance government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). There is an old proverb: “One foot cannot stand on two boats.” And that is precisely what the Congress is doing. Can the Congress take on the ruling party when it itself is struggling to regain the space it ceded to the BJP and other regional parties in the last few years?

pix courtesy: dnaindia.com

If the Congress has failed to stitch together an effective counter-alliance to the NDA, it is because of its refusal to give room to smaller but growing parties fearing further erosion in its shrinking base. As a result, not only did it miss the opportunity to be part of the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ in Uttar Pradesh, it is facing alliance blues in other states as well. The classic case is of Sharad Pawar-led National Congress party (NCP), which has been steadfastly associated with the Congress, has chosen to go it alone in Gujarat even though the two parties have pledged to contest together in Maharashtra. There is no doubt that with NCP choosing to contest all the 26 parliamentary seats in Gujarat, there will be a division of votes, which will ultimately benefit the BJP.

In fact, it was Sharad Pawar who had first taken the initiative to form a “Mahagathbandhan” of opposition parties to take on the ruling alliance. But his idea could not materialise as the Congress was not ready to play second fiddle to some parties which had grown in stature. The Congress, which was wiped out from Delhi in both the assembly and parliamentary elections, lacked maturity in entering into any understanding with the Aam Aadmi Party which also wanted the alliance in both Punjab and Haryana besides Delhi. But the Congress, which snatched power from the BJP-SAD alliance in Punjab and lost ground to the BJP in Haryana, did not want to share space with AAP which was spreading its wings there. As a result, what we see is a loosely-knit alliance led by Congress party with smaller parties in some states.

It reflects very poorly on the leadership of the Congress, which is not sagacious enough to come out of its shadow. Congress president Rahul Gandhi should realise that his party is not in a position to command a premium on its value. Had he been sensible and could see the writing on the wall; he would have gone ahead to accommodate as many parties which still wanted a solid and credible opposition alliance? The problem with the Congress leadership is that it wants to have the cake and eat it too. That’s not only practical but impossible also.

If the NDA alliance has been largely successful, it is due to the open-heartedness of the principal party, the BJP, which has been careful in creating a non-disturbing environment for smaller and regional parties. While continuing to pursue its agenda of maximising its reach in states where it does not have much influence, the BJP has been wise enough to enter into an alliance with regional parties.

With the Congress not having the stomach to accommodate the interests of other parties, it would have been better had it gone alone with an aim to improve its reach and tally. The Congress, which recorded its worst performance in the last general elections bagging just 44 seats, could corner only 19.5 per cent of votes then. Before it recovered some ground by winning state elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh last year, the Congress was only ruling Punjab and sharing power in Karnataka. The party showed some signs of recovery last year when elections to nine states – Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana – were held in 2018. Of the 1082 seats in these states, the Congress won 414 seats whereas the BJP won 355 seats.

The ideal strategy for Congress would have been to recoup and revitalise its organisation before going overboard with the aggressive approach of dislodging the Modi government. It has scored a self-goal by compromising with its prime objective of reviving the almost moribund party and simultaneously working to remove the present government. It is this confusion which has prevented it from allying with potential parties leading to three-cornered contests in several constituencies which is only going to help the BJP. In a nutshell, the present is tense and the future uncertain for the oldest political party.

(The article was first published at wionews.com)

WHY PRIYANKA MAY SPOIL SP-BSP PARTY IN UP?

Struggling with its sagging fortunes, India’s grand old party – the Congress – seems to have found its ‘Brahmashashtra’ in Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, who it believes can revive the political destiny of the party. Realising that the road to its revival hinges in the bellwether state Uttar Pradesh, which sends the maximum 80 lawmakers to parliament, the Congress president Rahul Gandhi has appointed his sister as the party general secretary and in-charge of eastern Uttar Pradesh in the hope that her charismatic personality may arrest the party’s steep fall in the crucial state.

In the last few decades, the Congress, which used to draw its maximum strength from Uttar Pradesh, has ceded space to the regional parties – the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party – besides the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which all have grown at its expense. Therefore, it becomes crucial for the party to devote its maximum energy in the state, and the appointment of Priyanka and Jyotiraditya Scindia, who has been tasked with the western Uttar Pradesh, is being seen in that direction. Scindia had recently played a significant role in the party’s success in Madhya Pradesh elections.

pix courtesy: latestLY.com

The responsibility is huge for both Scindia and Priyanka, whose role so far was limited to campaigning to the family pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli, the parliamentary constituencies of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, respectively. Not only that the duo will have to cope with the rising graph of the BJP, which swept the last parliamentary elections by bagging 73 seats (including two seats by its ally, the Apna Dal), the party will be hard pressed to find its footing in the face of the “gathbandhan” of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party.  The Congress had recorded its worst performance in the 2014 parliamentary elections when it could only protect its traditional seats of Amethi and Rae Bareli.

While the selection and responsibility of Priyanka Gandhi can be understandable from the party’s point of view, the decision may hurt the SP-BSP alliance more than the BJP. The BJP garnered 42.30 % of the total votes polled registering an impressive growth of 24.80% and its ally – the Apna Dal – one percent. On the contrary, the SP saw its fortunes dip by just 1.06 percent (it got 22.20% votes), but it won only 5 seats losing 18 in the process. But Mayawati’s BSP and the Congress were hit the hardest losing 7.82% and 10.35% respectively of the total votes polled. BSP, which had won 20 seats in the 1999 parliamentary elections, was completely wiped out failing to secure even one seat, the Congress managed to secure only two seats while forfeiting 19 seats.

If one has to go by arithmetic, the SP (with 22.20% votes) and BSP (with 19.60% votes) together hope to corner 41.80 percent votes as against the BJP and Apna Dal’s vote share of 43.30 percent with a deficit of just 1.50% if the voting pattern remains the same. If both the SP and BSP manage to protect their voter base and don’t lose ground further, they are hoping to upset the apple cart of the BJP. Keeping the Congress, which garnered 7.50 percent votes in the last elections, out of the alliance and the entry of Priyanka Gandhi in the state, may put paid to the two regional parties’ analysis.

If Priyanka really manages to wean away the disgruntled die-hard voters to her party’s fold, it will be the SP and the BSP, which will suffer the most. For, it is highly unlikely that she will be able to make inroads into the BJP, which has a committed cadre who have remained steadfast with the party over the years.

It remains to be seen whether Priyanka will be able to bring any windfalls to the party in terms of seats, but her arrival is bound to galvanise the party, which is on a free fall. There is every possibility that the party may benefit in terms of vote share. And if that happens, she will be cutting into the traditional vote base of the SP and BSP. Instead of a direct contest between BJP on one hand and SP-BSP alliance on the other, there will now be a three-cornered contest. In this scenario, there is bound to be division of votes, which will ultimately help the BJP. Mayawati and Akhilesh seem to have misread the situation completely by maintaining a distance from the Congress as they were unsure that the latter could pitchfork Priyanka in the politically crucial state with wider responsibilities. This might prove to be a costly miscalculation on their part.