BENGAL ‘KHELA’ HEADED FOR A TIE-BREAKER!

Sometimes, it makes sense to be a fence sitter and more so when such an important and make-or-mar ‘khela’ is on in West Bengal. One is reminded of the epic Wimbledon 2019 Men's Single Final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, which was among the greatest of all time not only in the annals of Wimbledon, but in the history of tennis. A roller-coaster match, which Djokovic won 7-6 (7-6), 1-6, 7-6 (7-4), 4-6, 13-12 (7-3) after a gruelling 4 hours and 57 minutes!  Besides being the longest Wimbledon final, it was also the first ever deciding-set tiebreak at 12-12 in singles in the tournament’s history. 

West Bengal elections, spread over eight phases, also makes it the longest ever polls in the state. Unlike the Wimbledon 2019 match when the two giants were pitted against each other, the fight this time in this eastern state is between Trinamool Congress, which has set its sights on the third term, and the country’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was a greenhorn in the West Bengal politics till a few years ago, until it announced its arrival in the 2019 parliamentary elections when it won 18 of the 42 seats in the state. Since then, there has been no looking back for the BJP as it is racing menacingly to mount a formidable challenge to its opponent.  

Interestingly, the Congress and the Left Front, which have ruled the state for 55 years between them, are not in the picture this time. So much so that the top leadership of both the parties chose to stay away from the polls, leaving the campaigning to their local leaders! The Gandhi siblings – Rahul and Priyanka – were conspicuous by their absence in the state. Rahul, who addressed only one rally in the state on April 14 and that too when half of the eight-phase polls was already over, later decided to suspend campaign in the wake of rising Corona cases. Similarly, the ageing central leadership of the Left Front gave a complete miss to the campaigning in the state. 

Why did both the Congress and the Left chicken out and not even put up a fight in Bengal? Were they scared of the imminent humiliating rout or was it a tactical ploy to back out?

The sole agenda of all the parties both at the central and state level is to defeat the Hindu party which is growing in strength, resulting in a decapacitated Opposition. That also explains the alliance between political parties which were not long ago cutting each other’s throats. The renewed bonhomie between the Congress and the Left parties in Assam and West Bengal is not based on any principle, but largely out of the fear of a complete annihilation. The coming together of the two in Assam and West Bengal while fighting each other in Kerala is self-explanatory. 

Aware that they will not be able to pose any challenge to the BJP, both the Congress and the Left chose to remain silent warriors as part of a strategy and let the Trinamool slug it out. The grand design is not to allow the Muslim vote to be split. All the three – the Congress, Left Front and now Trinamool -- have played the ‘Tushtikaran’ (appeasement) politics to stay afloat in the state.  According to the 2011 Census, Muslim population in West Bengal is 2.47 crore (27.01 percent) of total 9.13 crore. In 10 years since, one can safely assume that the percentage of the Muslim population will be at least 30 percent, if not more. All the three parties have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Muslim vote in the past as the minority community chose to vote en masse for any party which offered maximum concessions.  That they wield influence in close to 100 of the 294 assembly seats makes them a powerful bloc. 

As things stand today, arithmetic favours Trinamool, but it has been seen in the past that sometimes chemistry wins over arithmetic. Whatever is the election outcome; this bout will produce an intense seesaw battle. Who played the better rally will be known when the election results are declared.

As long as the BJP was a marginal player, all the three parties tried to outdo each other in soliciting the Muslim vote. Over the years, the Muslim voter has also become smart. Rather than putting all their eggs in one basket, read political party, the Muslims have been voting for the candidates instead which is why there has been a gradual increase in the number of Muslim candidates put up by all the political parties and the BJP is also no exception. The BJP has fielded nine Muslim candidates this time as compared to 42 by the Trinamool. 

But the arithmetic has changed since the BJP juggernaut rolled in the state. With both the Congress and the Left teetering on the brink, there is a growing realisation that a dent in the Muslim vote will serve the interests of the BJP only. Therefore, the two have decided to go slow sending out a clear signal to the Muslims who to vote for if the BJP has to be stopped. 

The Muslim vote has played an important role behind the Trinamool’s rise to power. If the Muslims realise that the Communists and the Congress are no better than decorative players, they would like to make their votes count and throw their weight behind the Trinamool. In such a scenario, the real fight will skittle down to close to 200 non-Muslim influential seats. 

Then there is an important segment of women who constitute about 49 per cent of the electorate and who have been nurtured by the Mamata Banerjee government which runs close to 200 women-centric schemes. The women voters have steadfastly been the avid supporters of Didi since she breached the citadel of the Communists in the state. However, the division in this significant constituent can’t be ruled out this time as the state government is accused of the poor implementation of schemes amid reports of commission demanded by the Trinamool agents from the beneficiaries. It is too early to say whether this anger will result in shifting of the allegiance.

As things stand today, arithmetic favours Trinamool, but it has been seen in the past that sometimes chemistry wins over arithmetic. Whatever is the election outcome; this bout will produce an intense seesaw battle. Who played the better rally will be known when the election results are declared.

 

Left out in the cold!

 

The writing on the wall was there. But the Leftists in India steadfastly refused to read the message. And if the Left is facing an existential crisis, it itself is to be blamed. There is a famous saying by the Greek philosopher Heraclitus “Change is the only constant in life”. But for the Left, “change” is anathema. What is surprising is that while Communism and the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe sank, the Left in India continued to swim for so long! Still, it refused to learn lessons from Russia and China, the historical torchbearers of communism, who later embraced the free-market economy.

Being the main opposition party to the Congress at the Centre for about 20 years after Independence, the Left, represented by the Communist Party of India (CPI) then, is fighting unsuccessfully for its survival.

In 1957, the CPI became the first party in independent India to win a state election without aligning with the Congress. It was Kerala. But the next seven years saw the disintegration of the CPI as it split in 1964 into two factions – the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India (Marxist).  In the subsequent years, the radical CPI-M grew in strength at the expense of the CPI.

Though the CPI-M was part of the United Front government in West Bengal between 1967 and 1971, it made it big when Jyoti Basu began his long tenure as the Chief Minister, serving as head of the Left Front coalition which had an uninterrupted rule for 34 years till 2011. In the meantime, the Front continued to play a dominant role in Kerala either as the ruling or the main opposition party almost every five-year rotation of state elections. The party added Tripura to its kitty in 1993 where it headed the government for 25 years until 2018.

The period between 1990 and 2010 was the golden era of the Left Front. Not only did it prop up several Third Front governments at the Centre, it also supported the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government from outside in 2004 when it had 59 parliamentary seats till it withdrew its support in July 2008 on the nuclear deal with the US. The decision later backfired and cost it heavily in the next elections.

This period also saw the Left committing the “historic blunder” when it denied prime ministership to Jyoti Basu in 1996. History would have been written differently had the Left not torpedoed Jyoti Basu’s chances of becoming the first communist Prime Minister of the country.  One fails to understand the intellect of the Left because Jyoti Basu as Prime Minister could have benefited the communists politically largely.

The free fall in the Left’s fortunes began from 2009 when its Lok Sabha tally hit 24, the lowest ever since independence.  The subsequent elections saw further erosion of the Left Front as it won 12 parliamentary seats in 2014 and just five in the last elections which were held in 2019. Notably, the Left drew a blank in its bastions West Bengal and Tripura and managed to win just one seat in Kerala. Its other four seats came from Tamil Nadu, thanks to the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).

No doubt, the Left owed its success in West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala to the land reforms and it became the mannequin of the farming community initially.  But the reforms did not percolate down to the lowest strata of the society, particularly the lower caste people. The Left, which largely pandered to the interests of the working class, also did not try to expand its base.

Most importantly, its economic policies were much left to be desired. The flight of industrialists from the state due to persistent labour disputes and lock-outs and the government’s open support to trade unions led to the growing unemployment. The educated youth had no jobs. Bristling with anger, they, too, migrated. To add fuel to the fire was the sudden U-turn on the decades-old economic policies of the Left by the then Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee. His open embrace to industrialists by creating favourable policies like the Special Economic Zones and the land acquisition for a proposed Tata Motors automobile factory at Singur backfired. The Trinamool Congress led by the fiery Mamata Banerjee, which was waiting in the wings for long, smelt opportunity and accused the Left government of grabbing land of the poor villagers for the industrialists. The relentless campaign by the Trinamool struck a chord with the people, who had by now become disillusioned with the ruling communist dispensation. The people’s pent-up anger reflected in the 2011 Assembly elections when they punished the Left Front by voting the Trinamool to power. The Left’s defeat was so pronounced that the Front could win just 62 seats out of 294. Notably, the incumbent Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee lost his Jadavpur seat to his Trinamool rival. The BJP, which contested 289 seats, failed to open its account.

The story was more or less the same in the assembly elections that followed five years later in 2016, except the complete Trinamoolisation of the communists. The Left Front slumped to its worst tally winning just 32 seats whereas Trinamool added 27 more to take its tally to 211. The BJP made its debut by winning three seats.

Up till now, the Communists’ loss was Trinamool’s gain. But five years down the line, there seems to be churn happening in West Bengal politics. Those who switched their loyalty to Trinamool are dejected, as the change they expected did not happen. In Trinamool, they saw the extension of the communist rule. Their disappointment was evident when the BJP, which was a marginal player in the state politics till recently, made a splash in the 2019 parliamentary elections by winning 18 of the 42 seats. And most of the gains came at the expense of the Trinamool.

As the eight-phase elections are underway in West Bengal, the BJP has emerged as the main opponent to the Trinamool displacing both the Left and the Congress. It itself is a major victory for the saffron party which till the last assembly elections had just three seats in its kitty. So, what is left of the Left? Even the Left is groping for answers!

 (The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

BJP’s flip flop on CAA - A tactical ploy!

Will the Citizenship (Amendment) Act be a boon or spell doom for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in Assam? One will have to wait for May 2 when votes will be counted.  With the hustle and bustle of campaigning coming to an end ahead of the third and the final phase of voting in this remote part of the region on April 6, the issue holds utmost importance.  Why has the CAA become a political hot potato for the BJP in Assam which led to the party’s meteoric rise in the previous election?

While the BJP has been going gung-ho on CAA in the neighbouring West Bengal, the party has been very indifferent on the issue as far as Assam is concerned. Ironically, the issue was high on the agenda of the BJP before the elections were announced, so much so that Assam’s powerful minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who dons several hats for the BJP in the state and the entire northeastern region, would not miss any opportunity to rake up the issue even during the Corona pandemic when all kinds of activities, including political, came to a complete halt. Can the CAA have two different connotations for two different states and that too when they share their boundaries and have Hindu Bengali migrants, who stand to benefit because of the new Act?

Perplexing, isn’t it?

What has happened between 2016, when the BJP swept to power in Assam largely benefiting from the twin issue of the CAA and NRC (National Register of Citizens), and now when it is maintaining studied silence?

The BJP’s promise of detecting and deporting “illegal migrants” from Bangladesh if it came to power resonated with the people of the ethnic communities who voted in large numbers for the party in the 2016 elections. Though the process to update the National Register of Citizens began following a Supreme Court order in 2013, the BJP hijacked the issue and made it a poll plank. And as it turned out, it vaulted the BJP to unexpected political gains, resulting in the formation of its government for the first time in Assam.

Similarly, the CAA promised Indian citizenship to persecuted religious minorities who had migrated from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan and arrived in India before the end of December 2014. This also helped the BJP in garnering the votes of the Bengali Hindus, who account for nearly 25 percent of the state’s population.

In effect, the BJP secured the support of both the ethnic communities as well as the Bengali Hindus as can be seen by its performance. It improved its seat tally by 12 times winning 60 of the 126 assembly seats. Its winning strike rate was more than 70 per cent as it contested only 84 seats.

So far so good!

But all the hell broke loose when the CAA was passed by Parliament in December 2019. Several parts of Assam, particularly the Brahmaputra Valley, erupted in protest. The indigenous people feared the CAA would pave the way for citizenship to a large number of Hindu Bengali migrants which would not only reduce them to minorities, but also destroy their identity, culture and language. The indigenous people want 1971 as the cut-off date for citizenship as agreed to in the Assam Accord of 1985 following years of agitations.

The CAA runs counter to the provisions of the Assam Accord as it seeks to grant citizenship to Hindu, Christian, Buddhist, Jain, Sikh and Parsi migrants who have entered India illegally on or before December 31, 2014 and have stayed in the country for five years. Who stands to benefit from CAA?  It’s the illegal Bengali Hindu migrants from Bangladesh who have settled in large numbers across the state.

For the indigenous people, migrant is a migrant, no matter whether he is Hindu or Muslim, and he should be identified and deported. On the contrary, the CAA makes a clear distinction between a Hindu migrant and a Muslim migrant.

Now the twist in the tail! When the Supreme Court monitored NRC finally published the list on August 31, 2019, it excluded 19.06 lakh people and a majority of those left out from the list were believed to be Bengali Muslims and Hindus. If accepted, it would rob the BJP of votes of lakhs of Hindus who could not make it to the updated list. So, the NRC, which cost the government more than 1200 crore rupees, was trashed by the very same people who were votaries of detecting and deporting illegal migrants.

Its Catch 22 situation for the BJP! If it talks about the CAA, it invites the wrath of the indigenous people. Non-implementation of CAA is bound to upset the Hindu Bengalis who may not vote for the BJP as religiously as they did the last time. That explains the silence of the BJP on the two issues. While the CAA is missing from the BJP’s manifesto, the party has promised a new NRC with corrections to protect genuine Indian citizens and exclude all illegal immigrants.

It remains to be seen how the issue pans out in the elections. But one thing is for sure that it will be very difficult for the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the regional party that was born out of a movement against illegal immigrants, and now a junior ally of the BJP, to convince the voters on its volte face on CAA. Interestingly, Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal was with the AGP which emerged as a political party from the All Assam Students Union (AASU) which spearheaded the anti-foreigners’ movement from 1979 to 1985 before he joined the BJP in 2011. 

If the BJP manages to overcome its strategic silence on these two issues and springs a surprise, the victory will be seen more as a referendum of the politics of the NDA government at the Centre than its performance in the state. 

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

GOVT’S U-TURN ON SMALL SAVINGS SCHEMES: POLITICS OVER ECONOMY!

 

The government’s move to reverse its decision regarding cut in the small savings schemes by 50 to 110 basis points for the first quarter of the financial year starting April 1, 2021 in less than 24 hours stems from its fears of the political fall-outs.  At a time, when the elections to four states and a Union Territory are underway, the proposed move would have given ammunition to the opposition parties to up the ante against the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government for following “anti-people” policies which would have hurt its political fortunes. That explains the government’s swift move to reverse its proposed decision to avoid any political backlash.

The proposed move to reduce interest rates on small savings schemes would have certainly hurt the small investors who have parked their money in the schemes which entail higher interest rates than the regular fixed deposit. Moreover, the investors also benefit from tax exemption offered by these schemes which is not the case with fixed deposit. With inflation inching further, these small savings schemes are the only ray of hope for small investors.

When a large number of people are yet to recover from the shock of pandemic-caused lockdowns which hurt them badly, the proposed move would have certainly been a double whammy for them and the resultant anger could halt the resurgent march of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the elections.

Should the small investors then cheer the government’s U-turn?

Certainly not! The government’s decision to revisit its earlier announcement is just a temporary move which will be restored when the election process is over. The government has just put it on hold. For, the cut in the small savings schemes is the need of the hour which is in the interest of both the people and the nation.

Banks, particularly the public sector ones, have not passed the benefit of the repo rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India, meant to stimulate various aspects of economic growth, to customers. They fear that it will hit their margin if they do so in view of the rate on deposits. Their fears are not completely unfounded as they are struggling with bad loans whereas non-banking institutions are facing solvency issues. Therefore, instead of adjusting their lending rate, the banks have done just the opposite by raising their deposit rates to collect funds to keep their balance sheets healthy.

The banks can soften their lending rate, which is vital to kick start the economy as it will increase the private consumption and offer liquidity access to all sectors hit by the pandemic, only if they reduce the deposit rates. Though there has been uptick in demand which collapsed following the pandemic, it needs to be sustained. Still, people are conscious about spending as income for all dropped to the bare minimum during the pandemic which led to a complete halt of the economic activities. 

The RBI has done its part by bringing the repo rate down to just four percent which is the lowest repo rate in the last two decades. Today, the banks are in a very advantageous position as they borrow money from the RBI at a much lower interest rate. When the RBI lowers the repo rate, the commercial banks are expected to pass this benefit to their customers by reducing the interest rates on the loans they offer. But it is not happening as the banks and financial institutions are still hesitant to pass on the entire rate cuts to the borrowers. 

It will be important to understand that the rate cuts make loans cheaper allowing people to pay a lesser amount of interest on loans – whether it is personal loans, car loans or home loans. The resultant saving for any person is much more than what he earns on his money parked in the banks.

That’s not all. If the banks pass on the rate cuts to the industry, it not only gives a boost to the industry, the consumers also stand to benefit in the end as the prices of commodities also become cheaper  due to lower interest rates.

The advantages of rate cuts thus outweigh the benefits of higher deposit rates as it boosts the demand side of the economy and spur consumption, the twin necessities for the revival of any economy. 

One can understand the U-turn by the Finance Ministry as the ruling BJP can ill-afford to anger the common man right now. It is also equally important for the common man to understand that the high deposit rate regime will do no good either to him or to the nation. Let the poll mania be over, the cut in the small savings schemes will be back on the table.

 

BJP HAS PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE IN WEST BENGAL

 

Once the dominant parties in the West Bengal state politics – the Congress and the Left Front stand atrophied and are fighting for their relevance. The Trinamool Congress, ruling the state since 2011, is betraying signs of nervousness after a large-scale exodus of party leaders and workers to the resurgent Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).  Backed by well-oiled machinery with the able and proactive support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP looks the most confident of all the parties as it unleashes a psychological warfare.  True to the Trinamool’s borrowed slogan from neighbouring Bangladesh “Khela Hobe”, West Bengal elections will certainly be a cracker of a match, no matter who wins or loses.

The country’s Home Minister and BJP’s chief strategist Amit Shah’s presumptuous claim of winning 26 of the 30 seats in the first phase of the state’s polling and bagging 200 of the 294 seats is a tactical ploy to turn the tide in his party’s favour and influencing the still-to-be-decided voters, besides denting the morale of the Trinamool activists.  The BJP’s renewed confidence stems from its scintillating performance in the 2019 parliamentary elections when it made major inroads into the state by winning 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats, clearly a paradigm shift in the state's political narrative.  In its marauding march, the Trinamool suffered the most as it lost 12 seats from its previous tally of 34, and all to the BJP. The Congress’ downfall continued as it won just two from its previous tally of four seats, whereas the Left Front sank completely drawing a zero. The losses of all these three parties were BJP’s gains signifying that it was eating into the traditional votes of not only one, but all the parties. In a way, the BJP announced its arrival in the state and that too in a very formidable way.

Therefore, the nervousness of Trinamool and Mamata Banerjee, who is the one (wo)man army in the party, in particular, is palpable.  After breaching the citadel of the Left Front, which had an uninterrupted rule of 34 years, the Trinamool felt tremors in its turf for the first time since 2011. The BJP had inflicted an agonising pain on it, which was to become acute in the subsequent years. The 2019 parliamentary elections rattled the Trinamool so much that its trusted lieutenants started ditching Didi and made a beeline to the BJP in droves. Whether they went on their own or were hijacked by the BJP is an altogether different story. In its drive to spread its footprints in the state, the BJP is employing all the four methods of Sam, Dam, Dand, Bhed roughly translated in English as the carrot and the stick policy.

So, what is driving people towards BJP?

The Trinamool was born out of the frustration of the people towards the communists under whose rule the industries dried up following long labour disputes and lock-outs. Trade unionism became an euphemism which had the tacit support of the government of the time leading to the migration of industrialists like Tatas, Birlas, Thapars, Singhanias, Bangurs etc. While land reforms and Panchayati Raj system in rural areas and pro-labour policies of the government in cities paid rich dividends to the Left Front, the subsequent closure of industries led to growing unemployment.  Violent attacks by the Left Front and the Congress activists against each other became a new norm and the state slipped into a complete lawlessness. The educated youth of the state became increasingly frustrated with the state of affairs and started moving to other states and countries.

With the Congress losing its steam, there was a political vacuum which was filled swiftly by the Trinamool which rode to power on the back of a massive and successful land agitation in Singur and Nandigram.  In its 'Ma, Mati, Manush' (Mother, Land, People) slogan-cum-promise, the people saw a ray of hope and an anticipated change.  But it certainly was not a Poriborton which the people voted for. The only change that came about was the transformation of the government. Otherwise, status-quo remained.

Welfare politics, doles, lawlessness, corruption, appeasement towards minorities, read Muslims, who form close to 30% of the population, is all that Trinamool stands for. There was no end to political violence. The rise of Trinamool saw frequent violent clashes between its supporters and the communists which in later years became fierce with the BJP when the latter started spreading its wings.

In effect, the change in government from the Left Front to the Trinamool did not result in the real Poriborton as the Mamata-led government was somewhat a slightly improved version of the communist avatar.  Singur and Nandigram certainly spelt political fortunes for the Trinamool, but it also exposed the party’s anti-industry instance. The abandoning of the Nano-car plant at Singur by the Tatas did not go down well with other industrialists who developed cold feet in investing their hard-earned money in the state where their investment was not perceived to be secure. Investments lead to direct and indirect jobs and have a spill-over effect into other economic opportunities.  So, in the absence of investments, the space for jobs shrunk in the state forcing the educated youth and unskilled people to look for greener postures elsewhere.

Herein lies the success story of the BJP. It tapped the exasperation of the people and aggrandised the advantage of a double-engine government (both at the Centre and the state) which could lead to all-round economic development.  It also latched onto the Trinamool’s lack of desire to change the status quo and promised the real Poriborton besides engineering its social maths.

The downfall of the communists led to the rise of the Trinamool. Who benefits more if Trinamool starts disintegrating? No prizes for guessing!

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

ASSAM -- TRICKY WICKET TO BAT ON

Much water has flown down the Brahmaputra since 2016 when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) swept to power in Assam riding on the massive anti-incumbency wave against the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government led by the veteran and longest-serving Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. 2021 is certainly no 2016. Much has changed since then. There was a severe anti-UPA wave in the country following the massive drubbing of the Congress-led government at the Centre in 2014. The anger of the people was so pronounced that many Congress-ruled governments were also swept away in the subsequent state elections and Assam was no exception where Tarun Gogoi was at the helm for three consecutive five-year terms. The BJP victory was a foregone conclusion in 2016 even before the votes were cast.

The BJP on its own came close to the half mark of 126 seats when it won 60 seats, a massive jump of 55 seats from the last election. The victory was also remarkable because the BJP contested only 84 seats in 2016 as against the 120 in the 2011 elections. Interestingly, the Congress, which managed to bag just 26 seats, a net loss of 53 seats from the last election, secured 1.4 percent more popular votes than its rival. The BJP’s net gain of 55 seats came largely at the expense of the Congress which lost 53 seats. 

This time, the dynamics have changed. The stakes are high for the BJP in Assam, the only state of the four states and a Union Territory going to polls, where it is in power. Unlike the previous election, there does not seem to be any wave and that explains whirlwind tours of the state by the top leadership consisting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party president J.P. Nadda.

On the back foot over the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA), the BJP has put the two crucial issues on the backburner which contributed to its major victory in the last election. Several parts of Assam, particularly the Brahmaputra Valley, were rocked by protests after the CAA was passed by Parliament in December 2019. The CAA promised Indian citizenship to persecuted religious minorities who had migrated from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan and arrived in India before the end of December 2014.

The indigenous people of Assam fear it will primarily benefit illegal Bengali Hindu migrants from Bangladesh who have settled in large numbers across the state and if they are granted citizenship, they will outnumber Assamese-speaking people in the state and their concerns are not unfounded.

The BJP backtracked on the NRC when out of the 1.9 million people excluded from the NRC were 1.3 million Hindus and indigenous tribes. That also explains why the BJP has rejected the NRC in Assam and wants a new one. It remains to be seen whether the BJP’s silence on these two issues will cost it the votes of both the indigenous people as well as the Hindu Bengalis.

Sensing the BJP’s dilemma, the state’s main opposition Congress party, stitched an alliance with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by controversial Badruddin Ajmal besides announcing to repeal the CAA and strengthen the administrative and legal management to deal with the NRC.  This is the first time the Congress has entered into a pre-poll pact with the AIUDF which has a considerable clout in the Muslim-dominated areas. According to Census 2011, Muslims form 34.22 percent of the total population of Assam and decide the electoral fate of 23 seats. In the last election, the AIUDF vote share was the third highest after the Congress and the BJP and bagged 13 seats, one seat less than the BJP’s closest ally, the AGP.  

The Congress also brought in its fold the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which was dumped by the BJP in favour of the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) last year. This decision seems to be puzzling as the BPF, which was an ally of the BJP in the last assembly elections, had a strike rate of 100 percent winning all the 12 seats that it contested.

Going by the results of the last election, the Congress-led alliance looks stronger on paper. The vote percentage of the Congress (30.9%), the AIUDF (13%) and BPF (3.9%) besides the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Left parties is better than the BJP with 29.5% votes and the AGP (8.1%). The BJP’s new ally, the UPPL, contested four seats in the last election and lost all.

However, the Congress will desperately miss the services of the veteran Tarun Gogoi, who passed away last year. There has been a leadership vacuum in the party since Gogoi’s death. No other leader commands the mass base in the state and that explains the decision of the Congress not to project its chief ministerial candidate.  The Congress’ best bet is Gaurav Gogoi, son of the departed leader, but it will be a litmus test not only for him, but the Congress as well. On the contrary, the BJP has Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and the clever strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma, a former Congress leader who switched sides in 2015 and joined the BJP in protest against Gogoi’s decision to promote his son at his expense. 

Making their debut in this election are two parties -- the Assam Jatiya Parishad and the Raijor Dal – born out of the anti-CAA protests and who will be contesting jointly. Both the parties have also the support of the once powerful All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) which spearheaded the anti-foreigners’ movement from 1979 to 1985.  The former Chief Minister Prafulla Mahanta, who has been denied the ticket by the AGP, is likely to put his weight behind the new parties. While it is too early to say what will be the impact of these two new parties, they will certainly play a spoilsport to the parties seen withering on the foreigners’ issue.

All said and done, the poll arithmetic is not as simple as one thinks it to be. The undecided voters sometimes turn the tide.  As of now, opinion polls have given an edge to the BJP-led alliance, which certainly holds an advantage being at the power at the state as well as at the Centre. But the BJP leadership’s claim of winning 100 seats is certainly a far cry.

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

WHY HAVE STRINGENT LAWS FAILED TO INSTILL FEAR IN RAPISTS?

Has Indian judiciary failed our daughters? Why do Indian daughters continue to face violence despite the government framing tough anti-rape legislation? The laws do not seem to have any deterrence for the rapists as the numbers suggest. A woman is raped every 16 minutes in India. According to the National Crime Records Bureau's (NCRB) 'Crime in India 2019' report, the country had recorded 88 rape cases every day and 32,033 in the year. Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh top the shame list with 6,000 and 3,065 rape cases last year respectively.

But the situation is far more horrible as the figures are gross underestimates. These are just the cases that have been reported. Majority of the crimes against women are committed by people known to the victims such as close family members, neighbours, employers and friends. And in many cases, the victims either remain reluctant to report crimes or they are coerced by their families to keep mum due to stigma attached with it. India’s deep-seated patriarchy is largely to be blamed for this sorry state of affairs.

The government was forced to pass a tough anti-rape law in April 2013 following a massive outcry over the brutal rape of Nirbhaya, a 23-year-old physiotherapy student on a moving bus in New Delhi on the night of December 16, 2012. The law made stalking a crime and introduced death sentence for convicted rapists. But has it brought about any positive change in the society? Young girls and women continue to fall prey to the rapists. In several cases, the accused get away with minor punishments due to lack of evidence and they are also protected by police and politicians. The misuse of police in destroying evidence is not a hidden secret.

The shoddy police investigation in the latest Hathras rape case also raises several questions.  Why were samples of the 19-year-old Dalit girl taken on September 22 when she was admitted to the hospital on September 14? Why did it take three days to send the samples to a lab in Agra? The lab received the samples on September 25. The vaginal swabs in rape cases should be taken within 72 hours. In fact, according to the guidelines & protocols for medico-legal care for survivors/victims of sexual violence by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, “the likelihood of finding evidence after 72 hours (3 days) is greatly reduced; however it is better to collect evidence up to 96 hours in case the survivor may be unsure of the number of hours elapsed since the assault.”

Why did the hospital authorities delay in taking samples?  Was it an act of gross negligence or it was purportedly delayed? Now the UP police is claiming that the victim was not raped as the forensic report, which was received by the Agra lab 11 days after the crime, has found no evidence of rape. It is also banking on the post-mortem report issued by Safdarjung Hospital which does not mention rape. The post-mortem report says there were “multiple old healed tears” in the private parts of the deceased. Certainly, there will be very little chances of finding any evidence if the samples are collected beyond permissible time limit.

Why were samples of the 19-year-old Dalit girl taken on September 22 when she was admitted to the hospital on September 14? Why did it take three days to send the samples to a lab in Agra? Why did the hospital authorities delay in taking samples?  Was it an act of gross negligence or it was purportedly delayed?

The decision of the local authorities to cremate the victim in the dead of the night and that too in the absence of her family members also raises several doubts. Why was the family denied a last look at the body? Why did the district officials not permit the body to be taken home for last rites? What was the urgency? The UP police and the local administration need to answer these questions.

Now that all the four accused have been arrested, the case will be heard by the Fast Track Court (FTC) after the police file the charge sheet. The problem is that most of these FTCs in several states have the same drawbacks as the district courts. Improper infrastructure, inadequate staff, frequent adjournments continue to dog these FTCs. As of 2019, there were more than 1.66 lakh pending cases of crime against women and children in the FTCs across the country.

Even if the FTC completes all the legal formalities and passes its judgment, it will not be a final closure of the case. The accused have every right to challenge the FTC decision to higher courts and finally the Supreme Court.  The case in point is the Delhi medical student rape case, when a fast-track court was set up on January 17, 2013 a month after the crime.  The court wrapped up the proceedings within eight months and sentenced the four surviving convicts to death in the case. The Supreme Court upheld the death penalty on May 5, 2017, but the convicts were hanged on March 20 this year after they took time exhausting all their legal remedies.  It took more than seven years before the convicts could be sent to the gallows despite having been sentenced to death in a fast-track.

The unusual delay in closure is also traumatic for the rape survivor as she is haunted by the flashbacks, nightmares and upsetting memories. Moreover, as the case drags from one court to another, she is subjected to the same rigmarole of answering uncomfortable questions which may prove to be very disturbing for her. In some cases, it is observed that the survivors end their lives due to the stigma attached with the incident of rape.

There is an urgent need to fast track justice also. If  justice is prompt, it will certainly act as a deterrent and instill fear among the people who entertain any such wicked thoughts. The criminal justice system should be such that it is not seen as failing to deliver justice after rape. For, justice delayed is justice denied.

(The article first appeared on Wionnews.com)

WHY CHINA WANTS TO IMPOSE WAR ON INDIA?

WHY CHINA WANTS TO IMPOSE WAR ON INDIA?

There seems to be a method behind China’s renewed bellicosity towards India which has been in the making for the past several years. Behind the charming façade of bonhomie was hidden a sinister design to downsize India. It was never ever at ease whenever the world linked the two Asian giants through a hyphen. Given the size of its economy and its influence well beyond South Asia, China found it increasingly difficult to digest the world’s view of the two Asian countries which put them on equal footing. The rise of the Hindu nationalist government in New Delhi was another sore point as Prime Minister Narendra Modi government sought to deal with Beijing on equal terms, which was certainly not digestible to it as it was keen to play Big Brother in the region.

China was also miffed with New Delhi as it sought to deepen its relations with the Trump regime at a time when the relations between Washington and Beijing started worsening from 2018 onwards when both the countries resorted to tit-for-tat tariff war.  The Corona pandemic further dented the already-strained ties. Originating from Wuhan province in China, the pandemic has derailed the world economy and Trump has squarely blamed Beijing for its spread. On its part, China tried to give a new spin to it by pushing a conspiracy theory that it was the US military personnel who could have brought the corona virus to China. Angered by China’s insinuation, Trump started dubbing Corona virus as Chinese virus rubbing salt into its wounds.

A suspicious China viewed the growing bonhomie between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi as a conspiracy against its interests. As angry exchanges between the US and China escalated, President Trump’s seemingly shift towards India further piqued Beijing.  In fact, many in the Trump administration had been favouring prioritising ties with New Delhi in a bid to counter Beijing’s growing influence in the world. The Ladakh incursions by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) came at a time when several countries, including the US, were fuming at China’s continued muscle-flexing in the disputed islands in the South China Sea. China says it has “irrefutable” sovereignty over the islands, also claimed parts of the sea by Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei.

The Ladakh incursions do not seem to be a sudden move. It all began in June 2017 when the two countries were locked in a military standoff as China attempted to extend a road on the Doklam plateau southwards near the Doka La pass. Satellite images and intelligence reports are proof that the Chinese have been building several permanent military posts, a few helipads and new trenches not very far from Doklam. Doklam was just a prelude. Since then, China has been surreptitiously fortifying its positions along the LAC.

Notwithstanding its attempts to unilaterally change the status quo along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, it has been blaming India for the current tension. It has put the ball in the court of New Delhi to take steps to ease the situation by withdrawing its forces from the region, while reiterating that its territory (read occupied territory) cannot be lost.

China’s game plan is to impose war on India. Even though Chinese officials have been maintaining that their country will never be the first to escalate the situation, their actions prove otherwise. Notwithstanding its attempts to unilaterally change the status quo along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, it has been blaming India for the current tension. It has put the ball in the court of New Delhi to take steps to ease the situation by withdrawing its forces from the region, while reiterating that its territory (read occupied territory) cannot be lost. The statement that Chinese military is "fully determined, capable, and confident to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity" sums up its intentions.

China is eyeing one wrong move from India that will give it the sanction to escalate the situation along the border further. More than the military damages, China wants to impose a heavy cost on India so as to wreck its economy, which has been severely hit by the lockdowns imposed in the wake of the Corona virus. With Indian economy shrinking badly and the fastest of all the countries, any escalation of the situation will deal a body blow to New Delhi.

If that happens then once the world’s fastest growing economy, India will certainly slip into a mess and the recovery will take several years.  With economy in tailspin, India’s influence in the region and beyond would also diminish. There would be immense pressure on the Indian leadership to take some harsh steps to recover from the economic costs that would accrue due to escalation of the situation. And this is what China wants. It wants to mute all the voices that speak of China and India as the two giants of Asia. Just like India does not want Pakistan to be counted its equal, China detests granting India any status at par with itself.

(The article first appeared on Wionnews.com)

CONGRESS LOSES SCINDIA; PERHAPS MP AS WELL

The tell tale signs were visible to all, except the Congress leadership which was either unable to read the writing on the wall or lived in a denial mode. Prising out the wicket of Jyotiraditya Scindia is a major victory for the country’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as he was one of the very few leaders within the Congress party who could swing things in the party’s favour as seen during the last elections in Madhya Pradesh about 15 months ago. Scindia had played a key role in snatching win from the BJP which had a 15-year uninterrupted run in the crucial state.

If Scindia has walked out on the Congress, the blame squarely lies with the party which mysteriously failed to accommodate him, who was a close confidante of Rahul Gandhi, in a manner which was due to him.  He had high hopes that the party could reward him with the chief ministership of the state, which ultimately went to Kamal Nath who commanded the support of a larger number of elected legislators in comparison to about two dozen MLAs who were rooting for Scindia. Though a temporary truce was brought about by Rahul Gandhi after days of intense deliberations, Scindia felt sidelined as he was neither given the presidentship of the state unit of the party nor a berth in Rajya Sabha.

The Congress has not only lost Scindia, but there are chances the party losing out the state to the BJP as well. It remains to be seen how many of the 22 Congress legislators who resigned return to the party as not all of them seem to happy with Scindia’s decision to join the BJP. But as things stand today, it is unlikely that the Congress will be able to weather the storm. After netting Scindia, it will not be that difficult for the BJP to catch some small fish who were not part of the Kamal Nath cabinet to switch sides after the fall of the government.

In Jyotiraditya Scindia, the Congress has lost a performer, an orator and above all a charismatic leader who could steer the ship of the party which is sinking rapidly.

Even though some of the 22 Congress legislators decide to return to the party fold, the strength of the house will get significantly reduced giving an edge to the BJP which has 107 MLAs. The Congress had seven more MLAs than the BJP besides the support of two MLAs of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and one MLA of Samajwadi Party before the revolt. So, all eyes will be on the rebel Congress MLAs and more importantly the role of the Speaker. The BJP would like the rebel Congress MLAs to tender their resignation to the Speaker first so as to bring down the Kamal Nath government to escape the Anti-Defection Law. 

Once the Congress loses power in the truncated assembly following the acceptance of the resignation of the rebel party legislators by the Speaker, the BJP can move fast to stake its claim as it would have the magic number to form the government. The rebel Congress MLAs can be accommodated by the BJP later when they would be allowed to contest fresh elections in bypolls that would have to be held in a few months from now. In any case, it would be naïve to think that BJP strategists would have been eyeing only the disgruntled Scindia.

There is an urgent need of retrospection for the Congress if it fancies any chances of revival, which at present looks very gloomy. In the past, the Congress has lost several leaders who went on to chart their independent course after coming out of their parent party and are doing well as regional leaders. And the BJP has been successfully tapping on the performers of the Congress who were denied their rightful due. In the recent memory, one such sulking leader was Himanta Biswa Sarma of Assam who not only plotted the fall of the Congress but helped the BJP to come to power in the state as well as several other states in the North-east. 

In Jyotiraditya Scindia, the Congress has lost a performer, an orator and above all a charismatic leader who could steer the ship of the party which is sinking rapidly.

(The article first appeared on Wionnews.com)

DID BJP READ THE DELHI PITCH WRONG?

A VICTORY OF WELFARE POLITICS OVER NATIONALISM

On a flat electoral pitch which offered no turn, the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) lived up to its performance and raced to a comfortable victory in Delhi. The results should ring alarm bells for the country’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which decided to stump the incumbent AAP government through its high octane nationalism pitch. Once again, the BJP became victim of its over dependence on national issues in a state election where people were more concerned about the pressing problems being faced by them. Sadly, the BJP, which tasted defeat in five of the six state elections which went to polls last year, refuses to learn from its past mistakes.

pix courtesy: siasat.com

The BJP should realise that one size does not fit all the time. What may work on a national scale does not necessarily mean that it will also work in a state. The party will need to differentiate between the two and accordingly plan its strategy. Like in a cricket Test match, political parties have enough time to revisit their strategy after the first or second round during national elections. But the state election does not offer such an opportunity which is akin to a 50-50 match.

Unlike the BJP, the AAP decided to bat straight. It kept its campaign simple by seeking votes on the work done in the last five years. Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s appeal to people not to vote for his party if they thought that the AAP had failed to meet their expectations resonated well with the electorate. The seven-year-old start-up party was smart as it either ducked or left the bouncers and outswingers by the BJP over Shaheen Bagh protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act and refused to be drawn into any controversy by popping it back on the principal opposition party which it claimed is entrusted with the law and order situation in the national capital.

Once again, the BJP became victim of its over dependence on national issues in a state election where people were more concerned about the pressing problems being faced by them

The BJP was also guilty of launching a vicious and personal attack on Kejriwal over the Shaheen Bagh protests and was penalised by the Election Commission which barred some of its leaders, including a union minister, from campaigning. This certainly did not go down well with the masses which punished the BJP. In the past, Prime Minister Narendra Modi benefited largely when the opposition parties, particularly the Congress party, launched a vitriolic attack on him.

What surprises the most is that the BJP offered a free run to the AAP. Not only did the party announce the candidates very late, as against the AAP and the Congress, it released the party manifesto just a few days before the voting. Rather than making its manifesto the preamble, the party resorted to negative campaigning. It should have stuck to its manifesto and taken on the AAP on the strength of it. But none of the BJP leaders stuck to the script and buried it completely. Its failure to project chief ministerial candidate was another sore point which was well encashed by the AAP.

In the end, it was a victory of welfare politics over nationalism. At a time, when the people have been hit hard by the economic slump and are staring at an uncertain future, freebies are an instant hit. Though big ticket discounts do not augur well for the economy of the country or a state, people often fall prey to such tactics for short-term gains. With Delhi in its kitty again, one hopes the AAP government will work to fight the twin menace of poor transport and rising pollution which is choking the national capital. 

HAS BJP CHICKENED OUT IN DELHI?

In a major departure from the past, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s decision not to name its chief ministerial candidate ahead of Delhi elections betrays its nervousness. Since the BJP came to power in 2014 and bettered its performance in 2019 general elections, the party had always taunted its political rivals, particularly the Congress party, of going to the electoral battle field without a commander. The BJP, which has always claimed to be a “party with a difference” by naming its chief ministerial candidate known to the voters before the elections, has been forced to revisit its strategy this time.

Having lost five of the six states which went to the polls last year, not to speak of the near-about rout in Haryana where it somehow strolled to power by joining hands with its rival -- the Jannayak Janata Party of Dushyant Chautala – the confidence level of the BJP has certainly taken a knock. With no credible face to take on the incumbent Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the BJP has once again decided to cash on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But, has it not been the strategy of the BJP since 2014 when it has repeatedly reaped political benefits in the states by piggy-backing on the aura of Modi?

But the last few state elections are a proof that while Modi remains indispensable at the national level, his magic is weaning in states where people are more concerned about bread and butter. BJP’s opponents have triumphed by harping on the people-centric issues as opposed to the BJP’s nationalist agenda, be it the revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir which provided special status to the former princely state, or the Supreme Court verdict on the decades-old contentious Babri mosque verdict in Ayodhya. Even the anti-Pakistan rhetoric, which has been the hallmark of the BJP during elections, has not resulted in political dividends for the party. 

Unlike in the past, the BJP has been way behind in declaring its candidates for Delhi polls. In fact, it waited for the AAP and the Congress before declaring its candidates. The party also suffered a setback as one of its oldest allies, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), chose to stay away from the polls reportedly on its reservations to the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act. Though SAD failed to make a cut in the last assembly elections in the Sikh-dominated constituencies, its decision not to field candidates is also being read as a warning signal to the BJP.

Other than the regularisation of 1,728 unauthorised colonies, on which both the AAP and the BJP claim ownership, the latter does not have much to flaunt about. All the three municipal corporations run by the BJP are in a shambles with repeatedly getting flak from the apex court for turning Delhi into a garbage city. The municipal corporations of the national capital have been disdainfully pathetic to Prime Minister Narendra Modi government’s ambitious Swachh Bharat Abhiyan. While smaller cities have taken a steady march on the cleanliness drive, Delhi is nowhere near the race. In a Swachh Survekshan League 2020 released by the Union Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs for two quarters April 1 to June 30, and July 2 to September 30 in January this year, the three municipal corporations ranked almost at the bottom of 49 Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) across India.

Delhi Police, which comes under the Union home ministry, has been at the receiving end for its high-handedness as well as inept handling of the anti-CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) protests on the campuses of the Jamia Millia Islamia and the Jawaharlal Nehru University respectively. Its seemingly preordained inquiry following the violence between two student groups in JNU is much left to be desired.

On the other hand, the AAP’s stocks are high as several of its welfare measures have added many newcomers, who have been largely benefited from the party’s largesse, to its fold besides its committed cadre.  Starting its inning as a rookie party, it has done well on its promises on education, healthcare, water, power etc, despite its failing on pollution and poor transport system.

Facing heat over CAA, price rise, job losses, rural distress and falling economy, the BJP has decided to convert the fight between two main political parties to a battle between Modi and Kejriwal. It remains to be seen who Delhi votes for on February 8 – a popular Modi or a charismatic Kejriwal.

WHAT A COUP IN MAHARASHTRA?

Who says silence is not golden in Indian politics? Just a few hours ago, when it seemed that the Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress had all but stitched together a fragile alliance to form a government in Maharashtra, people woke up from slumber to a new reality and a new government. Political pundits failed to read the mistaken silence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since Devendra Fadnavis resigned as chief minister following the collapse of talks with its oldest alliance partner, the Shiv Sena, in the aftermath of a hung assembly after elections. The BJP master strategists led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah were secretly at work without even giving an iota of hint what was cooking.

Pix courtesy: seelatest.com

The Indian media jumped the gun and rushed to anoint NCP chief Sharad Pawar as the modern-day Chanakya for succeeding in cajoling the Congress to join what critics termed as an “unthinkable and unprincipled alliance”. But it was the real Chanakya Amit Shah who sprang a surprise by breaking in in Pawar’s own party. In fact, it was the Sena which was very apprehensive of the BJP’s attempts of horse-trading and poaching of its newly elected MLAs and had therefore huddled them to the safe environs of the Congress-ruled Rajasthan. But none had the inkling of the BJP’s master stroke that it could strike at the heart of the NCP and wean away Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar. 

As things stand, it is now almost certain that Ajit will walk out on his parent party with more than 18 MLAs to avoid anti-defection law either by forming a new party or merging the entire block with the BJP. The BJP, which fell short of 40 seats in the 288-member house, will also need support of some smaller parties and independents, some of them BJP rebels, to prove majority. That the BJP has already done its homework by enlisting their support is a foregone conclusion.

In the latest twist of turns, the chief protagonist Sharad Pawar, who had almost scripted an unimaginable story of bringing the two warring parties Shiv Sena and Congress together, has been left red-faced. Never in his dreams could he have imagined that that his nephew would do a Vibhishana to him! But it is surprising that the Maratha strongman, who himself had been giving conflicting signals to the media in recent days regarding the government formation, could not read the riot act.

pix courtesy: newsclick.in

That all was not well between the uncle and nephew was not a hidden secret. Sharad Pawar’s ambition of promoting his daughter Supriya Sule at the expense of his nephew never went down well with the latter. The early signs of rift appeared in 2009 when Sharad Pawar appointed Chhagan Bhujbal as the deputy chief minister in the Ashok Chavan-led government after the Congress and NCP swept the polls. Miffed by Sharad Pawar’s decision to cut him to size, Ajit showed up his clout when he secured the support of a majority of the NCP MLAs a year later forcing his uncle to instate him as the deputy chief minister replacing Bhujbal. Since then, Ajit has been working to come out of the shadow of his dominant uncle.

Early this year, Ajit took some political positions which did not gel with the official policy of the NCP. Not only did he support the Modi government’s decision to abrogate the controversial Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir, he went on to demand that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir should also be made a part of India.

What surprises the most is that the senior Pawar did not even get a whiff of his nephew’s designs who was at the helm of the talks along with him leading to an almost certain Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress government! Till a month-and-a-half ago, Ajit must have endeared himself to his uncle after he resigned as an MLA after Sharad Pawar’s name got embroiled in the 25,000 crore rupee Maharashtra State Cooperative Bank scam saying he was perturbed over the allegations against the latter. He also owed his deputy chief ministership to his uncle then.

But, as they say, politics is a strange game like cricket where fortunes change in just a matter of time. The same thing happened in Maharashtra. While Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar and Sonia Gandhi might be ruing for taking their own sweet time to firm up the alliance, the Modi-Shah duo should be commended for thumbing the nose of the opposition and walking away with the trophy. For, everything is fair in love and war. And this was Maharashtra, the second largest state after Uttar Pradesh which sends maximum MPs to the Lok Sabha, where political stakes are very high for all the parties.

BJP- SHIV SENA MARRIAGE HAS GONE HORRIBLY WRONG

Mistrust, lies and deceit! This is how the BJP-Shiv Sena relationship can be summed up. It has been more than 10 days since the Maharashtra election results were announced; the two parties have not able to consummate their marriage which seemingly is headed for a disaster. There is no doubt that the voters, though sceptical about the alliance, still gave their verdict in favour of the two parties. The failure of both the parties to sink their differences to form a government and their open accusation of lies against each other portends a rocky if not a failed marriage.

The two parties have been sharing love-hate relationship since they entered into an alliance first in 1989 for the Lok Sabha as well as Maharashtra state elections. The bromance did not last long and both the parties parted ways in 2014 over bitter differences regarding seat sharing. Both the BJP and Shiv Sena went to polls independently with none garnering enough seats to form a government on its own. Shiv Sena, which misread the pulse of the voters, contested in 282 of the 288 assembly seats winning only 63. The BJP, which contested lesser number of seats (260), emerged as the single largest party winning 122 seats. The Sena, which had then claimed to play the role of opposition, soon had a change of heart and within two months kissed and patched up with the BJP to join the government in the state in December 2014.

pix courtesy: moneycontrol.com

Then again in January 2018, Shiv Sena raised the banner of revolt and announced to contest all future elections, including the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and Maharashtra assembly elections, alone. But by the time the 2019 general elections approached, it made a U-turn and announced the alliance with the BJP in February 2019 for the general elections as well as Maharashtra state assembly elections.

Shiv Sena, which largely draws its strength from the Maratha community, has failed to replicate its success in 1995 when it contested 169 seats and won 73. 

The two parties have been sharing love-hate relationship since they entered into an alliance first in 1989 for the Lok Sabha as well as Maharashtra state elections ...  Has the Shiv Sena realised the dangers and pains of an ill-assorted marriage and wants to move on?

It has not being able to penetrate in rural areas where its success rate is not too impressive. But it is driven by personal ambition to rule the state on its own. This explains the reason behind Shiv Sena’s demand for a 50:50 formula and rotation of chief minister post even though it won almost half of the seats in comparison to the BJP in the just concluded elections. While the BJP bagged 105 seats, the Shiv Sena won 56, closely followed by National Congress Party (54) and the Congress 44 seats.

Though both the parties together have 161 seats, way past the half-way mark of 144, the Sena is playing hardball by demanding an equal share in the ministry besides the chief ministerial post for half the term largely due to the BJP’s tally dipping from 122 in the last assembly elections.  With November 9 being the deadline by which time the government has to be sworn in otherwise the state will be headed to President’s rule, it remains to be seen which of the two saffron parties blinks first or will they go separate ways.

Politics is an unfamiliar territory where strange bedfellows become welcome friends. With so much of heart burn and mud-slinging from both sides, who knows Shiv Sena may well spring a surprise and realise its dream by coaxing the NCP and Congress to do the unimaginable. For, the enemy of my enemy is my friend! Even while remaining with the BJP, the Shiv Sena has been its shrillest opposition taking on the Narendra Modi government at the centre and Devendra Fadnavis in the state on several issues. Has the Shiv Sena realised the dangers and pains of an ill-assorted marriage and wants to move on? Only time will tell.

Why Exit Polls in India often go wrong?

It is high time that such a charade is put to an end forever. Election after election, absurd pretence has been thrust on the people in the form of the so-called exit polls and countless hours of mundane analysis on something which is a far cry from reality. Soon after the polling is over, broadcasting channels go gung ho over their predictable election outcome without any iota of shame when they are so off the mark when the final results come in.

In a country as vast as India, is it advisable to bank on the opinion of a few voters leaving a polling station after they have cast their vote? What is the guarantee that the voter is not lying? Moreover, in many instances it has been found that there is a pronounced contrasting pattern of voting in constituencies. Do the media channels cover each and every constituency? Importantly, a very small sample of population is covered for exit poll and a very few constituencies are targeted. Predicting the results of an election with around 900 million voters is awfully difficult. This is the reason why there is a boomerang effect on such predictions.

Pix courtesy: indiatoday.in

The case in point is the 2004 Exit Polls when almost all the major television channels went horribly wrong when they predicted the return of Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s NDA government. To their shock, the Congress-led UPA emerged victorious. Again in the Delhi assembly elections in 2015, the predicted victory margin of the Aam Aadmi Party was nowhere close to the reality when it bagged 60 of the 70 assembly seats. And in the latest case, all pollsters, except the India Today, predicted the humungous victory of the Manohar Lal Khattar government between 71 to 80 seats in the 90-member House. The performance of Khattar-led Bharatiya Janata Party was nowhere close to the expectations as it could not even achieve a simple majority leading to the hung house. The Congress, which most exit polls predicted to win between 11-12 seats, went on to win 31 seats.

What has often been seen that a media channel propounding the cause of a particular political party tends to defend as well as predicting its victory? And when the shocking election results are announced, the channel would not eat the crow. It is an open secret that most of the Indian media channels, barring a very few, are biased and they tend to overzealously favour a particular political party (no prizes for guessing), often jeopardising their authenticity.

When the ludicrous exit polls are beamed, it has a cascading effect. Besides the usual spectacle in the news channels, there is eruption in social media. They too join the party, take over from the channels and start expressing their political views. Amidst all this frenzy, who gets martyred? Investors! The stock exchanges too react to the exit polls and sometimes a fortune is wiped out. The markets open disastrously if a defeat is predicted for the incumbent ruling party or the possibility of a rag-tag coalition government. 

Given the vast difference between the predicted and actual results, these Exit Polls should do well to widen their sample size to arrive at a more realistic opinion. But can they afford it? Given the cut-throat competition, media channels often run against time and are forced to telecast the show immediately after the polling ends as it has high viewership and generates healthy advertisement revenues. It is high time all the media houses ponder over the issue and take measures to come out with more pragmatic opinion polls.