BJP HAS PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE IN WEST BENGAL

 

Once the dominant parties in the West Bengal state politics – the Congress and the Left Front stand atrophied and are fighting for their relevance. The Trinamool Congress, ruling the state since 2011, is betraying signs of nervousness after a large-scale exodus of party leaders and workers to the resurgent Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).  Backed by well-oiled machinery with the able and proactive support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP looks the most confident of all the parties as it unleashes a psychological warfare.  True to the Trinamool’s borrowed slogan from neighbouring Bangladesh “Khela Hobe”, West Bengal elections will certainly be a cracker of a match, no matter who wins or loses.

The country’s Home Minister and BJP’s chief strategist Amit Shah’s presumptuous claim of winning 26 of the 30 seats in the first phase of the state’s polling and bagging 200 of the 294 seats is a tactical ploy to turn the tide in his party’s favour and influencing the still-to-be-decided voters, besides denting the morale of the Trinamool activists.  The BJP’s renewed confidence stems from its scintillating performance in the 2019 parliamentary elections when it made major inroads into the state by winning 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats, clearly a paradigm shift in the state's political narrative.  In its marauding march, the Trinamool suffered the most as it lost 12 seats from its previous tally of 34, and all to the BJP. The Congress’ downfall continued as it won just two from its previous tally of four seats, whereas the Left Front sank completely drawing a zero. The losses of all these three parties were BJP’s gains signifying that it was eating into the traditional votes of not only one, but all the parties. In a way, the BJP announced its arrival in the state and that too in a very formidable way.

Therefore, the nervousness of Trinamool and Mamata Banerjee, who is the one (wo)man army in the party, in particular, is palpable.  After breaching the citadel of the Left Front, which had an uninterrupted rule of 34 years, the Trinamool felt tremors in its turf for the first time since 2011. The BJP had inflicted an agonising pain on it, which was to become acute in the subsequent years. The 2019 parliamentary elections rattled the Trinamool so much that its trusted lieutenants started ditching Didi and made a beeline to the BJP in droves. Whether they went on their own or were hijacked by the BJP is an altogether different story. In its drive to spread its footprints in the state, the BJP is employing all the four methods of Sam, Dam, Dand, Bhed roughly translated in English as the carrot and the stick policy.

So, what is driving people towards BJP?

The Trinamool was born out of the frustration of the people towards the communists under whose rule the industries dried up following long labour disputes and lock-outs. Trade unionism became an euphemism which had the tacit support of the government of the time leading to the migration of industrialists like Tatas, Birlas, Thapars, Singhanias, Bangurs etc. While land reforms and Panchayati Raj system in rural areas and pro-labour policies of the government in cities paid rich dividends to the Left Front, the subsequent closure of industries led to growing unemployment.  Violent attacks by the Left Front and the Congress activists against each other became a new norm and the state slipped into a complete lawlessness. The educated youth of the state became increasingly frustrated with the state of affairs and started moving to other states and countries.

With the Congress losing its steam, there was a political vacuum which was filled swiftly by the Trinamool which rode to power on the back of a massive and successful land agitation in Singur and Nandigram.  In its 'Ma, Mati, Manush' (Mother, Land, People) slogan-cum-promise, the people saw a ray of hope and an anticipated change.  But it certainly was not a Poriborton which the people voted for. The only change that came about was the transformation of the government. Otherwise, status-quo remained.

Welfare politics, doles, lawlessness, corruption, appeasement towards minorities, read Muslims, who form close to 30% of the population, is all that Trinamool stands for. There was no end to political violence. The rise of Trinamool saw frequent violent clashes between its supporters and the communists which in later years became fierce with the BJP when the latter started spreading its wings.

In effect, the change in government from the Left Front to the Trinamool did not result in the real Poriborton as the Mamata-led government was somewhat a slightly improved version of the communist avatar.  Singur and Nandigram certainly spelt political fortunes for the Trinamool, but it also exposed the party’s anti-industry instance. The abandoning of the Nano-car plant at Singur by the Tatas did not go down well with other industrialists who developed cold feet in investing their hard-earned money in the state where their investment was not perceived to be secure. Investments lead to direct and indirect jobs and have a spill-over effect into other economic opportunities.  So, in the absence of investments, the space for jobs shrunk in the state forcing the educated youth and unskilled people to look for greener postures elsewhere.

Herein lies the success story of the BJP. It tapped the exasperation of the people and aggrandised the advantage of a double-engine government (both at the Centre and the state) which could lead to all-round economic development.  It also latched onto the Trinamool’s lack of desire to change the status quo and promised the real Poriborton besides engineering its social maths.

The downfall of the communists led to the rise of the Trinamool. Who benefits more if Trinamool starts disintegrating? No prizes for guessing!

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)

ASSAM -- TRICKY WICKET TO BAT ON

Much water has flown down the Brahmaputra since 2016 when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) swept to power in Assam riding on the massive anti-incumbency wave against the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government led by the veteran and longest-serving Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. 2021 is certainly no 2016. Much has changed since then. There was a severe anti-UPA wave in the country following the massive drubbing of the Congress-led government at the Centre in 2014. The anger of the people was so pronounced that many Congress-ruled governments were also swept away in the subsequent state elections and Assam was no exception where Tarun Gogoi was at the helm for three consecutive five-year terms. The BJP victory was a foregone conclusion in 2016 even before the votes were cast.

The BJP on its own came close to the half mark of 126 seats when it won 60 seats, a massive jump of 55 seats from the last election. The victory was also remarkable because the BJP contested only 84 seats in 2016 as against the 120 in the 2011 elections. Interestingly, the Congress, which managed to bag just 26 seats, a net loss of 53 seats from the last election, secured 1.4 percent more popular votes than its rival. The BJP’s net gain of 55 seats came largely at the expense of the Congress which lost 53 seats. 

This time, the dynamics have changed. The stakes are high for the BJP in Assam, the only state of the four states and a Union Territory going to polls, where it is in power. Unlike the previous election, there does not seem to be any wave and that explains whirlwind tours of the state by the top leadership consisting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party president J.P. Nadda.

On the back foot over the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA), the BJP has put the two crucial issues on the backburner which contributed to its major victory in the last election. Several parts of Assam, particularly the Brahmaputra Valley, were rocked by protests after the CAA was passed by Parliament in December 2019. The CAA promised Indian citizenship to persecuted religious minorities who had migrated from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan and arrived in India before the end of December 2014.

The indigenous people of Assam fear it will primarily benefit illegal Bengali Hindu migrants from Bangladesh who have settled in large numbers across the state and if they are granted citizenship, they will outnumber Assamese-speaking people in the state and their concerns are not unfounded.

The BJP backtracked on the NRC when out of the 1.9 million people excluded from the NRC were 1.3 million Hindus and indigenous tribes. That also explains why the BJP has rejected the NRC in Assam and wants a new one. It remains to be seen whether the BJP’s silence on these two issues will cost it the votes of both the indigenous people as well as the Hindu Bengalis.

Sensing the BJP’s dilemma, the state’s main opposition Congress party, stitched an alliance with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by controversial Badruddin Ajmal besides announcing to repeal the CAA and strengthen the administrative and legal management to deal with the NRC.  This is the first time the Congress has entered into a pre-poll pact with the AIUDF which has a considerable clout in the Muslim-dominated areas. According to Census 2011, Muslims form 34.22 percent of the total population of Assam and decide the electoral fate of 23 seats. In the last election, the AIUDF vote share was the third highest after the Congress and the BJP and bagged 13 seats, one seat less than the BJP’s closest ally, the AGP.  

The Congress also brought in its fold the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which was dumped by the BJP in favour of the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) last year. This decision seems to be puzzling as the BPF, which was an ally of the BJP in the last assembly elections, had a strike rate of 100 percent winning all the 12 seats that it contested.

Going by the results of the last election, the Congress-led alliance looks stronger on paper. The vote percentage of the Congress (30.9%), the AIUDF (13%) and BPF (3.9%) besides the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Left parties is better than the BJP with 29.5% votes and the AGP (8.1%). The BJP’s new ally, the UPPL, contested four seats in the last election and lost all.

However, the Congress will desperately miss the services of the veteran Tarun Gogoi, who passed away last year. There has been a leadership vacuum in the party since Gogoi’s death. No other leader commands the mass base in the state and that explains the decision of the Congress not to project its chief ministerial candidate.  The Congress’ best bet is Gaurav Gogoi, son of the departed leader, but it will be a litmus test not only for him, but the Congress as well. On the contrary, the BJP has Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and the clever strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma, a former Congress leader who switched sides in 2015 and joined the BJP in protest against Gogoi’s decision to promote his son at his expense. 

Making their debut in this election are two parties -- the Assam Jatiya Parishad and the Raijor Dal – born out of the anti-CAA protests and who will be contesting jointly. Both the parties have also the support of the once powerful All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) which spearheaded the anti-foreigners’ movement from 1979 to 1985.  The former Chief Minister Prafulla Mahanta, who has been denied the ticket by the AGP, is likely to put his weight behind the new parties. While it is too early to say what will be the impact of these two new parties, they will certainly play a spoilsport to the parties seen withering on the foreigners’ issue.

All said and done, the poll arithmetic is not as simple as one thinks it to be. The undecided voters sometimes turn the tide.  As of now, opinion polls have given an edge to the BJP-led alliance, which certainly holds an advantage being at the power at the state as well as at the Centre. But the BJP leadership’s claim of winning 100 seats is certainly a far cry.

(The article first appeared on CNBCTV18.com)