WHY CHINA WANTS TO IMPOSE WAR ON INDIA?

WHY CHINA WANTS TO IMPOSE WAR ON INDIA?

There seems to be a method behind China’s renewed bellicosity towards India which has been in the making for the past several years. Behind the charming façade of bonhomie was hidden a sinister design to downsize India. It was never ever at ease whenever the world linked the two Asian giants through a hyphen. Given the size of its economy and its influence well beyond South Asia, China found it increasingly difficult to digest the world’s view of the two Asian countries which put them on equal footing. The rise of the Hindu nationalist government in New Delhi was another sore point as Prime Minister Narendra Modi government sought to deal with Beijing on equal terms, which was certainly not digestible to it as it was keen to play Big Brother in the region.

China was also miffed with New Delhi as it sought to deepen its relations with the Trump regime at a time when the relations between Washington and Beijing started worsening from 2018 onwards when both the countries resorted to tit-for-tat tariff war.  The Corona pandemic further dented the already-strained ties. Originating from Wuhan province in China, the pandemic has derailed the world economy and Trump has squarely blamed Beijing for its spread. On its part, China tried to give a new spin to it by pushing a conspiracy theory that it was the US military personnel who could have brought the corona virus to China. Angered by China’s insinuation, Trump started dubbing Corona virus as Chinese virus rubbing salt into its wounds.

A suspicious China viewed the growing bonhomie between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi as a conspiracy against its interests. As angry exchanges between the US and China escalated, President Trump’s seemingly shift towards India further piqued Beijing.  In fact, many in the Trump administration had been favouring prioritising ties with New Delhi in a bid to counter Beijing’s growing influence in the world. The Ladakh incursions by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) came at a time when several countries, including the US, were fuming at China’s continued muscle-flexing in the disputed islands in the South China Sea. China says it has “irrefutable” sovereignty over the islands, also claimed parts of the sea by Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei.

The Ladakh incursions do not seem to be a sudden move. It all began in June 2017 when the two countries were locked in a military standoff as China attempted to extend a road on the Doklam plateau southwards near the Doka La pass. Satellite images and intelligence reports are proof that the Chinese have been building several permanent military posts, a few helipads and new trenches not very far from Doklam. Doklam was just a prelude. Since then, China has been surreptitiously fortifying its positions along the LAC.

Notwithstanding its attempts to unilaterally change the status quo along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, it has been blaming India for the current tension. It has put the ball in the court of New Delhi to take steps to ease the situation by withdrawing its forces from the region, while reiterating that its territory (read occupied territory) cannot be lost.

China’s game plan is to impose war on India. Even though Chinese officials have been maintaining that their country will never be the first to escalate the situation, their actions prove otherwise. Notwithstanding its attempts to unilaterally change the status quo along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, it has been blaming India for the current tension. It has put the ball in the court of New Delhi to take steps to ease the situation by withdrawing its forces from the region, while reiterating that its territory (read occupied territory) cannot be lost. The statement that Chinese military is "fully determined, capable, and confident to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity" sums up its intentions.

China is eyeing one wrong move from India that will give it the sanction to escalate the situation along the border further. More than the military damages, China wants to impose a heavy cost on India so as to wreck its economy, which has been severely hit by the lockdowns imposed in the wake of the Corona virus. With Indian economy shrinking badly and the fastest of all the countries, any escalation of the situation will deal a body blow to New Delhi.

If that happens then once the world’s fastest growing economy, India will certainly slip into a mess and the recovery will take several years.  With economy in tailspin, India’s influence in the region and beyond would also diminish. There would be immense pressure on the Indian leadership to take some harsh steps to recover from the economic costs that would accrue due to escalation of the situation. And this is what China wants. It wants to mute all the voices that speak of China and India as the two giants of Asia. Just like India does not want Pakistan to be counted its equal, China detests granting India any status at par with itself.

(The article first appeared on Wionnews.com)

CONGRESS LOSES SCINDIA; PERHAPS MP AS WELL

The tell tale signs were visible to all, except the Congress leadership which was either unable to read the writing on the wall or lived in a denial mode. Prising out the wicket of Jyotiraditya Scindia is a major victory for the country’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as he was one of the very few leaders within the Congress party who could swing things in the party’s favour as seen during the last elections in Madhya Pradesh about 15 months ago. Scindia had played a key role in snatching win from the BJP which had a 15-year uninterrupted run in the crucial state.

If Scindia has walked out on the Congress, the blame squarely lies with the party which mysteriously failed to accommodate him, who was a close confidante of Rahul Gandhi, in a manner which was due to him.  He had high hopes that the party could reward him with the chief ministership of the state, which ultimately went to Kamal Nath who commanded the support of a larger number of elected legislators in comparison to about two dozen MLAs who were rooting for Scindia. Though a temporary truce was brought about by Rahul Gandhi after days of intense deliberations, Scindia felt sidelined as he was neither given the presidentship of the state unit of the party nor a berth in Rajya Sabha.

The Congress has not only lost Scindia, but there are chances the party losing out the state to the BJP as well. It remains to be seen how many of the 22 Congress legislators who resigned return to the party as not all of them seem to happy with Scindia’s decision to join the BJP. But as things stand today, it is unlikely that the Congress will be able to weather the storm. After netting Scindia, it will not be that difficult for the BJP to catch some small fish who were not part of the Kamal Nath cabinet to switch sides after the fall of the government.

In Jyotiraditya Scindia, the Congress has lost a performer, an orator and above all a charismatic leader who could steer the ship of the party which is sinking rapidly.

Even though some of the 22 Congress legislators decide to return to the party fold, the strength of the house will get significantly reduced giving an edge to the BJP which has 107 MLAs. The Congress had seven more MLAs than the BJP besides the support of two MLAs of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and one MLA of Samajwadi Party before the revolt. So, all eyes will be on the rebel Congress MLAs and more importantly the role of the Speaker. The BJP would like the rebel Congress MLAs to tender their resignation to the Speaker first so as to bring down the Kamal Nath government to escape the Anti-Defection Law. 

Once the Congress loses power in the truncated assembly following the acceptance of the resignation of the rebel party legislators by the Speaker, the BJP can move fast to stake its claim as it would have the magic number to form the government. The rebel Congress MLAs can be accommodated by the BJP later when they would be allowed to contest fresh elections in bypolls that would have to be held in a few months from now. In any case, it would be naïve to think that BJP strategists would have been eyeing only the disgruntled Scindia.

There is an urgent need of retrospection for the Congress if it fancies any chances of revival, which at present looks very gloomy. In the past, the Congress has lost several leaders who went on to chart their independent course after coming out of their parent party and are doing well as regional leaders. And the BJP has been successfully tapping on the performers of the Congress who were denied their rightful due. In the recent memory, one such sulking leader was Himanta Biswa Sarma of Assam who not only plotted the fall of the Congress but helped the BJP to come to power in the state as well as several other states in the North-east. 

In Jyotiraditya Scindia, the Congress has lost a performer, an orator and above all a charismatic leader who could steer the ship of the party which is sinking rapidly.

(The article first appeared on Wionnews.com)

DID BJP READ THE DELHI PITCH WRONG?

A VICTORY OF WELFARE POLITICS OVER NATIONALISM

On a flat electoral pitch which offered no turn, the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) lived up to its performance and raced to a comfortable victory in Delhi. The results should ring alarm bells for the country’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which decided to stump the incumbent AAP government through its high octane nationalism pitch. Once again, the BJP became victim of its over dependence on national issues in a state election where people were more concerned about the pressing problems being faced by them. Sadly, the BJP, which tasted defeat in five of the six state elections which went to polls last year, refuses to learn from its past mistakes.

pix courtesy: siasat.com

The BJP should realise that one size does not fit all the time. What may work on a national scale does not necessarily mean that it will also work in a state. The party will need to differentiate between the two and accordingly plan its strategy. Like in a cricket Test match, political parties have enough time to revisit their strategy after the first or second round during national elections. But the state election does not offer such an opportunity which is akin to a 50-50 match.

Unlike the BJP, the AAP decided to bat straight. It kept its campaign simple by seeking votes on the work done in the last five years. Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s appeal to people not to vote for his party if they thought that the AAP had failed to meet their expectations resonated well with the electorate. The seven-year-old start-up party was smart as it either ducked or left the bouncers and outswingers by the BJP over Shaheen Bagh protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act and refused to be drawn into any controversy by popping it back on the principal opposition party which it claimed is entrusted with the law and order situation in the national capital.

Once again, the BJP became victim of its over dependence on national issues in a state election where people were more concerned about the pressing problems being faced by them

The BJP was also guilty of launching a vicious and personal attack on Kejriwal over the Shaheen Bagh protests and was penalised by the Election Commission which barred some of its leaders, including a union minister, from campaigning. This certainly did not go down well with the masses which punished the BJP. In the past, Prime Minister Narendra Modi benefited largely when the opposition parties, particularly the Congress party, launched a vitriolic attack on him.

What surprises the most is that the BJP offered a free run to the AAP. Not only did the party announce the candidates very late, as against the AAP and the Congress, it released the party manifesto just a few days before the voting. Rather than making its manifesto the preamble, the party resorted to negative campaigning. It should have stuck to its manifesto and taken on the AAP on the strength of it. But none of the BJP leaders stuck to the script and buried it completely. Its failure to project chief ministerial candidate was another sore point which was well encashed by the AAP.

In the end, it was a victory of welfare politics over nationalism. At a time, when the people have been hit hard by the economic slump and are staring at an uncertain future, freebies are an instant hit. Though big ticket discounts do not augur well for the economy of the country or a state, people often fall prey to such tactics for short-term gains. With Delhi in its kitty again, one hopes the AAP government will work to fight the twin menace of poor transport and rising pollution which is choking the national capital. 

HAS BJP CHICKENED OUT IN DELHI?

In a major departure from the past, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s decision not to name its chief ministerial candidate ahead of Delhi elections betrays its nervousness. Since the BJP came to power in 2014 and bettered its performance in 2019 general elections, the party had always taunted its political rivals, particularly the Congress party, of going to the electoral battle field without a commander. The BJP, which has always claimed to be a “party with a difference” by naming its chief ministerial candidate known to the voters before the elections, has been forced to revisit its strategy this time.

Having lost five of the six states which went to the polls last year, not to speak of the near-about rout in Haryana where it somehow strolled to power by joining hands with its rival -- the Jannayak Janata Party of Dushyant Chautala – the confidence level of the BJP has certainly taken a knock. With no credible face to take on the incumbent Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the BJP has once again decided to cash on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But, has it not been the strategy of the BJP since 2014 when it has repeatedly reaped political benefits in the states by piggy-backing on the aura of Modi?

But the last few state elections are a proof that while Modi remains indispensable at the national level, his magic is weaning in states where people are more concerned about bread and butter. BJP’s opponents have triumphed by harping on the people-centric issues as opposed to the BJP’s nationalist agenda, be it the revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir which provided special status to the former princely state, or the Supreme Court verdict on the decades-old contentious Babri mosque verdict in Ayodhya. Even the anti-Pakistan rhetoric, which has been the hallmark of the BJP during elections, has not resulted in political dividends for the party. 

Unlike in the past, the BJP has been way behind in declaring its candidates for Delhi polls. In fact, it waited for the AAP and the Congress before declaring its candidates. The party also suffered a setback as one of its oldest allies, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), chose to stay away from the polls reportedly on its reservations to the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act. Though SAD failed to make a cut in the last assembly elections in the Sikh-dominated constituencies, its decision not to field candidates is also being read as a warning signal to the BJP.

Other than the regularisation of 1,728 unauthorised colonies, on which both the AAP and the BJP claim ownership, the latter does not have much to flaunt about. All the three municipal corporations run by the BJP are in a shambles with repeatedly getting flak from the apex court for turning Delhi into a garbage city. The municipal corporations of the national capital have been disdainfully pathetic to Prime Minister Narendra Modi government’s ambitious Swachh Bharat Abhiyan. While smaller cities have taken a steady march on the cleanliness drive, Delhi is nowhere near the race. In a Swachh Survekshan League 2020 released by the Union Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs for two quarters April 1 to June 30, and July 2 to September 30 in January this year, the three municipal corporations ranked almost at the bottom of 49 Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) across India.

Delhi Police, which comes under the Union home ministry, has been at the receiving end for its high-handedness as well as inept handling of the anti-CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) protests on the campuses of the Jamia Millia Islamia and the Jawaharlal Nehru University respectively. Its seemingly preordained inquiry following the violence between two student groups in JNU is much left to be desired.

On the other hand, the AAP’s stocks are high as several of its welfare measures have added many newcomers, who have been largely benefited from the party’s largesse, to its fold besides its committed cadre.  Starting its inning as a rookie party, it has done well on its promises on education, healthcare, water, power etc, despite its failing on pollution and poor transport system.

Facing heat over CAA, price rise, job losses, rural distress and falling economy, the BJP has decided to convert the fight between two main political parties to a battle between Modi and Kejriwal. It remains to be seen who Delhi votes for on February 8 – a popular Modi or a charismatic Kejriwal.

WHAT A COUP IN MAHARASHTRA?

Who says silence is not golden in Indian politics? Just a few hours ago, when it seemed that the Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress had all but stitched together a fragile alliance to form a government in Maharashtra, people woke up from slumber to a new reality and a new government. Political pundits failed to read the mistaken silence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since Devendra Fadnavis resigned as chief minister following the collapse of talks with its oldest alliance partner, the Shiv Sena, in the aftermath of a hung assembly after elections. The BJP master strategists led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah were secretly at work without even giving an iota of hint what was cooking.

Pix courtesy: seelatest.com

The Indian media jumped the gun and rushed to anoint NCP chief Sharad Pawar as the modern-day Chanakya for succeeding in cajoling the Congress to join what critics termed as an “unthinkable and unprincipled alliance”. But it was the real Chanakya Amit Shah who sprang a surprise by breaking in in Pawar’s own party. In fact, it was the Sena which was very apprehensive of the BJP’s attempts of horse-trading and poaching of its newly elected MLAs and had therefore huddled them to the safe environs of the Congress-ruled Rajasthan. But none had the inkling of the BJP’s master stroke that it could strike at the heart of the NCP and wean away Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar. 

As things stand, it is now almost certain that Ajit will walk out on his parent party with more than 18 MLAs to avoid anti-defection law either by forming a new party or merging the entire block with the BJP. The BJP, which fell short of 40 seats in the 288-member house, will also need support of some smaller parties and independents, some of them BJP rebels, to prove majority. That the BJP has already done its homework by enlisting their support is a foregone conclusion.

In the latest twist of turns, the chief protagonist Sharad Pawar, who had almost scripted an unimaginable story of bringing the two warring parties Shiv Sena and Congress together, has been left red-faced. Never in his dreams could he have imagined that that his nephew would do a Vibhishana to him! But it is surprising that the Maratha strongman, who himself had been giving conflicting signals to the media in recent days regarding the government formation, could not read the riot act.

pix courtesy: newsclick.in

That all was not well between the uncle and nephew was not a hidden secret. Sharad Pawar’s ambition of promoting his daughter Supriya Sule at the expense of his nephew never went down well with the latter. The early signs of rift appeared in 2009 when Sharad Pawar appointed Chhagan Bhujbal as the deputy chief minister in the Ashok Chavan-led government after the Congress and NCP swept the polls. Miffed by Sharad Pawar’s decision to cut him to size, Ajit showed up his clout when he secured the support of a majority of the NCP MLAs a year later forcing his uncle to instate him as the deputy chief minister replacing Bhujbal. Since then, Ajit has been working to come out of the shadow of his dominant uncle.

Early this year, Ajit took some political positions which did not gel with the official policy of the NCP. Not only did he support the Modi government’s decision to abrogate the controversial Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir, he went on to demand that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir should also be made a part of India.

What surprises the most is that the senior Pawar did not even get a whiff of his nephew’s designs who was at the helm of the talks along with him leading to an almost certain Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress government! Till a month-and-a-half ago, Ajit must have endeared himself to his uncle after he resigned as an MLA after Sharad Pawar’s name got embroiled in the 25,000 crore rupee Maharashtra State Cooperative Bank scam saying he was perturbed over the allegations against the latter. He also owed his deputy chief ministership to his uncle then.

But, as they say, politics is a strange game like cricket where fortunes change in just a matter of time. The same thing happened in Maharashtra. While Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar and Sonia Gandhi might be ruing for taking their own sweet time to firm up the alliance, the Modi-Shah duo should be commended for thumbing the nose of the opposition and walking away with the trophy. For, everything is fair in love and war. And this was Maharashtra, the second largest state after Uttar Pradesh which sends maximum MPs to the Lok Sabha, where political stakes are very high for all the parties.

BJP- SHIV SENA MARRIAGE HAS GONE HORRIBLY WRONG

Mistrust, lies and deceit! This is how the BJP-Shiv Sena relationship can be summed up. It has been more than 10 days since the Maharashtra election results were announced; the two parties have not able to consummate their marriage which seemingly is headed for a disaster. There is no doubt that the voters, though sceptical about the alliance, still gave their verdict in favour of the two parties. The failure of both the parties to sink their differences to form a government and their open accusation of lies against each other portends a rocky if not a failed marriage.

The two parties have been sharing love-hate relationship since they entered into an alliance first in 1989 for the Lok Sabha as well as Maharashtra state elections. The bromance did not last long and both the parties parted ways in 2014 over bitter differences regarding seat sharing. Both the BJP and Shiv Sena went to polls independently with none garnering enough seats to form a government on its own. Shiv Sena, which misread the pulse of the voters, contested in 282 of the 288 assembly seats winning only 63. The BJP, which contested lesser number of seats (260), emerged as the single largest party winning 122 seats. The Sena, which had then claimed to play the role of opposition, soon had a change of heart and within two months kissed and patched up with the BJP to join the government in the state in December 2014.

pix courtesy: moneycontrol.com

Then again in January 2018, Shiv Sena raised the banner of revolt and announced to contest all future elections, including the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and Maharashtra assembly elections, alone. But by the time the 2019 general elections approached, it made a U-turn and announced the alliance with the BJP in February 2019 for the general elections as well as Maharashtra state assembly elections.

Shiv Sena, which largely draws its strength from the Maratha community, has failed to replicate its success in 1995 when it contested 169 seats and won 73. 

The two parties have been sharing love-hate relationship since they entered into an alliance first in 1989 for the Lok Sabha as well as Maharashtra state elections ...  Has the Shiv Sena realised the dangers and pains of an ill-assorted marriage and wants to move on?

It has not being able to penetrate in rural areas where its success rate is not too impressive. But it is driven by personal ambition to rule the state on its own. This explains the reason behind Shiv Sena’s demand for a 50:50 formula and rotation of chief minister post even though it won almost half of the seats in comparison to the BJP in the just concluded elections. While the BJP bagged 105 seats, the Shiv Sena won 56, closely followed by National Congress Party (54) and the Congress 44 seats.

Though both the parties together have 161 seats, way past the half-way mark of 144, the Sena is playing hardball by demanding an equal share in the ministry besides the chief ministerial post for half the term largely due to the BJP’s tally dipping from 122 in the last assembly elections.  With November 9 being the deadline by which time the government has to be sworn in otherwise the state will be headed to President’s rule, it remains to be seen which of the two saffron parties blinks first or will they go separate ways.

Politics is an unfamiliar territory where strange bedfellows become welcome friends. With so much of heart burn and mud-slinging from both sides, who knows Shiv Sena may well spring a surprise and realise its dream by coaxing the NCP and Congress to do the unimaginable. For, the enemy of my enemy is my friend! Even while remaining with the BJP, the Shiv Sena has been its shrillest opposition taking on the Narendra Modi government at the centre and Devendra Fadnavis in the state on several issues. Has the Shiv Sena realised the dangers and pains of an ill-assorted marriage and wants to move on? Only time will tell.

Why Exit Polls in India often go wrong?

It is high time that such a charade is put to an end forever. Election after election, absurd pretence has been thrust on the people in the form of the so-called exit polls and countless hours of mundane analysis on something which is a far cry from reality. Soon after the polling is over, broadcasting channels go gung ho over their predictable election outcome without any iota of shame when they are so off the mark when the final results come in.

In a country as vast as India, is it advisable to bank on the opinion of a few voters leaving a polling station after they have cast their vote? What is the guarantee that the voter is not lying? Moreover, in many instances it has been found that there is a pronounced contrasting pattern of voting in constituencies. Do the media channels cover each and every constituency? Importantly, a very small sample of population is covered for exit poll and a very few constituencies are targeted. Predicting the results of an election with around 900 million voters is awfully difficult. This is the reason why there is a boomerang effect on such predictions.

Pix courtesy: indiatoday.in

The case in point is the 2004 Exit Polls when almost all the major television channels went horribly wrong when they predicted the return of Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s NDA government. To their shock, the Congress-led UPA emerged victorious. Again in the Delhi assembly elections in 2015, the predicted victory margin of the Aam Aadmi Party was nowhere close to the reality when it bagged 60 of the 70 assembly seats. And in the latest case, all pollsters, except the India Today, predicted the humungous victory of the Manohar Lal Khattar government between 71 to 80 seats in the 90-member House. The performance of Khattar-led Bharatiya Janata Party was nowhere close to the expectations as it could not even achieve a simple majority leading to the hung house. The Congress, which most exit polls predicted to win between 11-12 seats, went on to win 31 seats.

What has often been seen that a media channel propounding the cause of a particular political party tends to defend as well as predicting its victory? And when the shocking election results are announced, the channel would not eat the crow. It is an open secret that most of the Indian media channels, barring a very few, are biased and they tend to overzealously favour a particular political party (no prizes for guessing), often jeopardising their authenticity.

When the ludicrous exit polls are beamed, it has a cascading effect. Besides the usual spectacle in the news channels, there is eruption in social media. They too join the party, take over from the channels and start expressing their political views. Amidst all this frenzy, who gets martyred? Investors! The stock exchanges too react to the exit polls and sometimes a fortune is wiped out. The markets open disastrously if a defeat is predicted for the incumbent ruling party or the possibility of a rag-tag coalition government. 

Given the vast difference between the predicted and actual results, these Exit Polls should do well to widen their sample size to arrive at a more realistic opinion. But can they afford it? Given the cut-throat competition, media channels often run against time and are forced to telecast the show immediately after the polling ends as it has high viewership and generates healthy advertisement revenues. It is high time all the media houses ponder over the issue and take measures to come out with more pragmatic opinion polls.