DEMONETISATION IS A FLOP SHOW

The verdict is out. In the next three months, the government’s Great Demonetisation Drive completes two years. And the country’s top bank has made a startling fact that almost all (99.3%) of the 15.4 trillion rupees high currency notes sucked out of circulation have been returned. The Reserve Bank of India report is a damning censure of the ill-conceived government move, which was touted as the panacea for all the ills, affecting the economy as well as the country’s internal security.

The RBI disclosure punctures the government’s several claims. During the abrupt November 8, 2016 address to the nation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had compared demonetization to a “mahayagna”, saying it would purify the country from corruption, black money, fake notes and terrorism. 

 The government made people to believe that with one stroke the corruption will be wiped out from the country. Has it? With almost all of the so-called Black Money back in the system, the claim flies in the face of the government. Last year, the Transparency International report dubbed India as the most corrupt Asian country. With a bribery rate of 69 per cent, India led the dubious list leaving behind even Pakistan.

The government invalidated 500 and 1000 rupee notes on the surmise that the large denomination currency notes were being used to stockpile black money and evade tax. If one buys the government theory, then it defies all logic when it introduced even a bigger currency note of Rs 2,000. Which is the larger denomination currency – a 1,000 rupee currency note or a 2,000 rupee currency note? Won’t it be easier to stash black money in the form of 2,000 rupee notes than the 1,000 rupee notes? 

Therefore, the government’s reasoning was far from the truth. One can draw only two plausible conclusions behind this exercise. Either the government was ill-advised or it was a deliberate attempt to convert the alleged black money into white.

Did the new colourful but highly deceptive (some even compared the new currency notes with ‘churan wali pudiya notes) currency notes make any dent on the fake currency notes as was claimed then? The fake new currency notes continue to be printed across the border and smuggled into India as several government agencies have seized them from time to time. With regard to terrorism, the less said the better. The terrorism related incidents have only spiked in Kashmir since then.

The RBI disclosure is also a big setback as the government had sniffed windfall gains expecting that between 2 to 3 lakh crore rupees would never return to the banking system. To the contrary, the so-called black money, on which the government had planned surgical strike, became legit. This raises a serious question on the intent of the government. With so much hidden money back into the system, the banks will now be bound to pay interest on the money parked with them. In effect, the cash lying idle at people’s homes has also started earning interest.

In a nutshell, the move to demonetize higher currency notes does not seem to have the desired results as the government had tom-tommed. The country is still struggling to come out of the shock which has caused more pain than gain.

HOPE KASHMIR CEASEFIRE DOES NOT BACKFIRE?

Pix courtesy: youtube.com

HOPE KASHMIR CEASEFIRE DOES NOT BACKFIRE?

Ceasefire may sound good politically, but all political decisions do not necessarily lead to the desired results. Ceasefire is acceptable as long as both the warring parties agree to it. Holding a ceasefire unilaterally against the mercenaries is akin to waving a white flag. The Bharatiya Janata Party-led central government’s decision to announce ceasefire in Kashmir during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan is a well-intentioned move, taken primarily to please its partner People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Jammu and Kashmir with whom it shares power. One hopes the country does not have to pay a heavy price for this unilateral decision which has already been met with disdain by militant groups active in Kashmir.

Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba took no time in rejecting the ceasefire calling it a drama. And a day after maintaining a studied silence, the Kashmir-based separatist leaders – Syed Ali Geelani, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and Yasin Malik too denounced the ceasefire. It is ample clear that militants and separatists don’t understand the language of peace and have little regard for the safety and well-being of the common people who are also falling prey in the process, and want Kashmir to be on the boil just only to please their masters sitting across the border. The separatist leaders are the biggest disruptive forces who have time and again shown their true colour by obstructing the peace process.

Now the big question is whether the armed forces were taken on board when the decision was taken? They are the people who have been staking their lives, making countless sacrifices since the militancy erupted in Kashmir in the late eighties. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 6,387 Indian soldiers have laid down their lives (till May 13, 2018) since 1988 when militancy raised its ugly head in Kashmir. During the same period, 14,828 innocent civilians had to lose their lives. In the last 30 years, Indian soldiers neutralised 23,423 militants. These figures speak for the valour of the security personnel who did not flinch in shedding their blood to bring normalcy to the troubled state. At a time, when the armed forces had been on the hot pursuit against the militants, mostly infiltrated into Kashmir from Pakistan, comes this shocker in the form of ceasefire.

Already 30 Indian soldiers have been martyred in Kashmir this year since January as against 72 militants. The figures show the militants have become more lethal, better armed and well-trained to cause maximum casualties. Any amount of leniency towards militants is bound to demoralise the forces which are up against all odds. Not only do they have to bear the brunt of the locals who offer themselves as shields to help escape militants, but often pelt security forces with stones to prevent them from launching any offensive against the militants. Can one understand the pain and agony of these security personnel who face humiliation at the hands of civilians on whose protection they are endangering their lives?

Did the government take into account the fears of security forces that the militants may recoup during the one-month period which may only allow them to re-energise? The militants have been on the back foot right now and lowering the guard against them seems to be a suicidal idea. Of late, several high profile militants have been accounted for, leading to vaccum in the leadership of several militant groups. Therefore, dropping the gun at a time when the security forces were having upper hand is beyond reason. The need of the hour was to maintain the hot trail against the militants whose morale is low.

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The government’s peace overtures have often been junked by the jihadi elements in the past. The fact was certainly lost on Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti when she made an appeal to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take a leaf out of the book of the then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee when his government announced ceasefire in December 2000. Her memory seems to be short as within one month of the ceasefire, a group of Lashkar-e-Toiba militants made an abortive bid to storm the Srinagar airport. In the gun battle that ensued, 11 people, including six militants, three paramilitary soldiers and two civilians, were killed. Is there any guarantee that such an incident will not be repeated, that too when LeT has already denounced the ceasefire.

Even one presumes that the local militants may adhere to ceasefire, there is every reason to believe that Pakistan-based militants will not? One such group has already made its intention clear. Summers are the perfect months when militants make infiltrations into Kashmir from the Pakistani side. Already there have been 48 infiltration bids from across the border till April this year, of which 24 attempts have been successful. Pakistan just can’t resist the temptation to push in as many militants taking advantage of the weather. Moreover, it will do all it can to force Indian security personnel to retaliate so as to put them into poor light. As long as Pakistan does not become party to the ceasefire and follows it in letter and spirit, these one-sided ceasefire offers will hold no water.

The fight against militancy can’t be successful with such knee-jerk reactions when the adversary uses it as a proxy war against you. In order to win the war against terrorism, one will have to keep in mind that militancy cannot be contained; it has to be stamped out completely. We have a perfect example in Punjab. Smarting under humiliating defeats, Pakistan first took advantage of the simmering situation in Punjab and played host to several Khalistani militants. Not only did it shelter them at its backyard, Pakistan financed and trained them militarily as well. It took a heavy-handed approach of the then governments which helped in wiping out militancy from the state.

Why can’t the same approach be applied to Kashmir? When its purpose was defeated in Punjab, Pakistan turned to Kashmir. Needless to say, there is an undeclared war in Kashmir. Thousands of people have been killed in Jammu and Kashmir in the last three decades in the name of the so-called freedom movement. The government of India just can’t and should not afford to be lenient to the mercenaries who are out to disturb the social fabric of the country. We just can’t let down our security forces.

GOVERNOR OF KARNATAKA OR BJP’S MAN FRIDAY?

Karnataka governor Vajubhai Vala administering oath to Yeddyurappa (Pix courtesy India.com)

Karnataka governor Vajubhai Vala not only made a mockery of himself, but insulted the constitution as well by inviting Yeddyurappa to form a minority government brushing aside the claims of the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) which entered into a post-poll alliance to form a government following a hung assembly. He further lowered his image by giving Yeddyurappa 15 days to prove majority on the floor of the house, giving him enough time to engage in horse-trading. His actions proved that he was not worthy of the post of the governor as his action was biased towards a party he belonged to in the past, namely, the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Was his decision prompted by the fact that he owed his present stint as governor of the state to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP president Amit Shah? So, he thought of paying it back to them by inviting Yeddyurappa to form the next government even though the latter did not have the sufficient numbers. Was he so naive to believe that his unconstitutional action would pass the test of the law? 

As expected, the country’s highest court intervened and cut down the 15-day period to just one day so that Yeddyurappa and his team could not engineer coup in the opposition camp either through purchasing votes or pressuring some of the newly elected MLAs to abstain during voting.

And when the moment of truth came, Yeddyurappa chickened out. Realising that his two-day government would not pass the test on the floor of the assembly, he resigned paving the way for the formation of a government led by JDS state chief H D Kumaraswamy, who has the support of the Congress party. 

It must be interesting to note that Yeddyurappa has never completed his full five-year term even though this was his third shot at the chief ministership of Karnataka. The first time when he became chief minister was in 2007 when he ruled for just seven days when the BJP’s then coalition partner JD (S) withdrew support. He became chief minister for the second time in 2008, but his stint lasted 39 months before he was arrested on corruption charges.

Now that Yeddyurappa’s fate has been sealed, the pertinent question is whether Governor Vajubhai Vala acted on his own! With such a long legislative experience in Gujarat, it is unlikely that he would not have thought about the repercussions of his action. Or was he coerced by the BJP which had anointed him to the coveted post? The suspicion is bound to be raised as of late the actions of several BJP-appointed governors have come under scrutiny.

There is no doubt that the Karnataka governor has caused immense damage to the dignity of the constitutional post he holds. If Mr. Vala wants to absolve himself of the sin, he should quit immediately maintaining the dignity of a governor.

DOES NAWAZ SHARIF SUFFER FROM DEMENTIA?

Did not Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif know about the presence of militant organizations in his own country? Did not he know who were responsible for carrying out dastardly Mumbai attacks? Did not he know that agencies in Pakistan were deliberately delaying the trial of the 26/11 attacks? Did not he know that any democratically-elected government in Pakistan never had any teeth? Was Mr Nawaz Sharif stupefied all through his three terms as prime minister? And finally, it has dawned on him after waking up from deep slumber that he must share the worst-kept secrets which he thinks the world does not know.

tribune.com.pk

“Militant organisations are 

active. Call them non-state 

actors, should we allow them to 

cross the border and kill 150 

people in Mumbai? Explain it to 

me. Why can’t we complete the 

trial?” — a reference to the 

Mumbai attacks-related trials which have stalled in a Rawalpindi 

anti-terrorism court.”

To be fair to the Pakistani people, this was an angry man taking on the ‘real’ establishment players and the judiciary for allegedly scuttling his chances of returning to power. Sharif feels deprived after the top court ordered his removal as head of his Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) this year following his disqualification from public office after a probe into his family's wealth following the 2016 Panama Papers leak which linked Sharif's children to offshore companies. Sharif, who could never complete his full five-year term as prime minister, sees political conspiracy hatched against him by the Pakistani army and the judiciary. In his previous two stints also he was unceremoniously removed – first in 1993 by a presidential order and second time when General Pervez Musharraf overthrew his government in a coup in 1999 which saw him jailed and later exiled.

Sharif, who is in the midst of a campaign for national elections due later this year, seems to have played his cards all wrong. Even political pundits in Pakistan are baffled over Sharif’s statement which seems to hurt his party’s chances more at the hustings. The opposition has latched on to his statement accusing him of pro-India. There is no doubt that his statement seems more at playing to the gallery in India rather than in Pakistan. India’s charges will gain currency in the wake of Sharif’s statements. India has repeatedly been accusing Pakistan’s army, its intelligence agency and the non-state actors for felicitating the attacks on Mumbai in which 164 people died and more than 300 were wounded. In the days and months to come, he will be pilloried in Pakistan by the opposition parties for compromising national interests. Moreover, he may feel intense heat from within his party as the opposition is bound to make it an election issue.

Smarting under Sharif’s criticism, the Pakistani army and the notorious Inter-State Intelligence would redouble their efforts to malign his image. That Sharif is not the favourite boy of Pakistani military is an open secret. Sharif’s dreams to nurture better relations with India have been repeatedly scuttled by the powerful army in the past. Sharif’s signing of the historic Lahore Declaration with the then Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in February 1999 did not go down well with the military establishment which undertook a military operation in Kargil the same year. The army was miffed with Sharif’s decision to open up trade, liberalizing the visa regime and encouraging people-to-people contacts between Pakistan and India. Though Sharif has feigned ignorance in the past claiming that he was stabbed in the back by his own army over his decision to improve relations with India, several former Pakistani military leaders have maintained that he was in the know of the operation. The Kargil misadventure not only bloodied the nose of Pakistani army, but Sharif had to rush to the United States to seek its intervention to resolve the crisis.

Sharif’s decision to travel to India for the grand swearing-in ceremony of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014 and welcoming him in Lahore on the 2015 Christmas Day when the latter made a surprise visit to Pakistan from Afghanistan further anguished the Pakistani army. Is it a mere coincidence that Pakistan-backed militants carried out a deadly attack on the Indian Air Force base in Pathankot precisely seven days after the Modi-Sharif Lahore meeting aimed at reviving the stalled bilateral talks? This has been a regular pattern that there are dastardly attempts to scuttle the talks whenever the two countries try to mend ties.

Sharif seems to have made a tactical mistake by portraying the army and judiciary in poor light in the election time when Kashmir used to be the flavor of all the political parties in the past. Leaders of Pakistani political parties have been riding piggy back successfully on the Kashmir issue during elections. Sharif seems to be trying to inject a new narrative this season which may backfire. In the process, he has not only exacerbated his rivalry with the military and the judiciary, but stands to lose the support of the people as well.

WHY WOMEN ARE SITTING DUCKS IN INDIA?

One expected that the stiffer penalties introduced by the government after the fatal gang rape of a woman on a bus in Delhi in December 2012 would have deterred Indian men from committing crimes against women. On the contrary, there has been a sharp spike in violence against women. One of the main reasons is that there is no fear of law in the country as the conviction rate is abysmally very low.

courtesy:  independent.co.uk

According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) annual report in 2016, the crimes against women have almost doubled since 2007. The crimes against women every hour went up to 39 in 2016 as compared to 21 in 2007.  There were 40,000 rape cases registered in 2016, up from 25,000 in 2012, the latest data show. But these figures are far from truth as many women don’t report crimes, particularly rape or domestic violence, fearing societal pressure. The situation is worse in rural areas where rapes are committed by close family members as well as neighbours. Therefore, most of these cases are hardly reported. And in majority of cases, the culprits get away either by buying the silence of the victims or the use of muscle power.

The crimes against women every hour went up to 39 in 2016 as 

compared to 21 in 2007.  There were 40,000 rape cases registered 

in 2016, up from 25,000 in 2012, the latest data show.

With a conviction rate of under 19 percent and that too over lengthy trials which continue for several years if not decades, families of victims think not twice but hundred times before mustering courage to file cases against the culprits. Even if some dare to seek justice, the lengthy and tiring judicial process, which consumes both time and money, is a major deterrent. Though the government introduced the fast track courts to expedite such cases, the progress is far from satisfactory.

The shortage of judges is again something to be blamed for the judicial delays. In 2016, the then Chief Justice of India, T. S. Thakur, had pointed to the inadequacy of judicial strength as the main reason behind the delay in trials. He suggested that there should be 70,000 judges whereas the figure is just 17,000.

Often the police, which is supposed to protect the law, collude with the accused and make the case weaker which does not stand the scrutiny of the courts. The NCRB data show that only one-fourth of those charged with sexual violence are convicted because prosecutors fail to prove the case in the absence of concrete evidence leading to the freedom of the offender. This only emboldens the offender to repeat his crime, at times, even against the same victim. Police often coerce victims to settle the case with the offenders rather than approaching courts so as to keep their case diaries clean. One of the biggest problems women face in India is that the onus is on the victim to prove the crime. A victim has to go through the same pain as she is forced to narrate her trauma first to the police, then to her lawyer and finally in the courtroom. In smaller towns and villages, there is hardly any policewoman in a police station, which prevents many victims to approach the law.

courtesy: cnn.com

But, it is the society which is to blame for the crimes against women. Ironically, the girls have to face problems even before their birth. They are viewed as inferior to men and liability to the family. The inhuman practice of abortion of female fetuses shows the sick mentality of the society. Then they are subjected to child marriage, dowry killings and domestic violence.

Mere better policing and setting up fast track courts will not solve the problem. Until and unless we change our attitude towards women, the situation will not change. For that we, the society, has to change.

PAKISTAN GOING THE TALIBAN WAY!

Courtesy: thepolicytimes.com

With a Pakistani court giving legitimacy to the Milli Muslim League (MML) party formed by the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), whose founder is notorious $10m bounty global terrorist Hafiz Saeed, and allowing it to contest national elections, Talibanisation of Pakistan looks imminent. JuD, a front of the banned militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), is blamed for the 2008 attacks in Mumbai that killed 166 people. The ruling of two different courts in as many days in favour of Saeed is perplexing, to say the least. In the first instance, Lahore High Court extended its stay against the possible arrest of Saeed. The next day came another shocker. Islamabad High Court annulled the October 2017 decision of the Election Commission of Pakistan not to register MML following objections from the interior ministry.

Until now, the judiciary seemed to be independent in a country where all the important pillars of democracy have almost collapsed. The twin decisions by Pakistani courts could prove to be the final nail in the coffin. In effect, Pakistani judiciary has found flaws in the orders of the United Nations and United States Department of the Treasury which had designated Saeed as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist. So we are staring at a scenario when a global terrorist would enter the National Assembly as a lawmaker and who knows could well become the prime minister of Pakistan. Pakistan deserves it as its romanticism with the Taliban and other militant groups is so profound that it is even willing to sour ties with its erstwhile ally, the United States, and risk global isolation. 

So we are staring at a scenario when a global terrorist would enter the National Assembly as a lawmaker and who knows could well become the prime minister of Pakistan.  

It should be recalled that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the only countries to recognize the Taliban when it formed its government in Afghanistan in 1996 by displacing the then Burhanuddin Rabbani government. The United Nations refused to recognize the Taliban government. The entire world except these three wretched countries disproved of the Taliban government. Pakistan has the history of not conforming to world order and siding with the rogue elements.

The implications of the Pakistani courts’ rulings are very worrisome. In recent years, Saeed’s popularity has soared in Pakistan where political leaders are losing currency because of their involvement in corruption. Saeed has been steadily making inroads into rural pockets of the country through his seminaries. He became the darling of the masses when his seminaries provided financial and medical assistance in the wake of the devastating earthquake in Kashmir in 2005. Reportedly, he has a network of 300 seminaries spread across the country and runs several schools, hospitals and ambulance services. The public adulation of Saeed was in full display when he was showered with flower petals upon his release from house arrest last year.

 

Courtesy: aljazeera.com

MML may prove to be a disruptive force in the upcoming elections. In a by-election in the Pakistan parliamentary constituency of NA-120 in September last year, the MML-backed candidate had secured the fourth position with 5,822 votes, double than that of the main opposition Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Jamaat-i-Islami combined. The seat had fallen vacant when the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had to resign, following his disqualification by Pakistan's Supreme Court. Sharif’s wife Kulsoom Nawaz Sharif won the seat comfortably.

Though Pakistan’s parties may be aghast at the prospect of MML making political entry, one thing is for sure that the latter and Saeed have huge backing of the Pakistani army and the Inter-Services Intelligence which are the de-facto government. These two agencies have trained the Taliban fighters and other militant groups in the past and continue to do so. There does seem to be an agenda of Pakistani army to create a new radicalized political force to further its own dirty interests. And if that happens, where will Pakistan be heading to? Any guesses!

AFGHANISTAN WANTS PEACE WITH TALIBAN BUT WILL IT COME?

The three principal characters in Afghanistan theatre – the government, Taliban and the United States – are in favour of talks to end the more than 16-year-old bloody war. But so deep runs the suspicion that the dominant parties do not want to enter into a direct dialogue. The Taliban is ready to talk to the United States but is opposed to dialogue with President Ashraf Ghani government. The US, on the other hand, does not want direct talks with the Taliban. It wants the Taliban to hold talks with the “legitimate” Afghanistan government. President Ghani has once again reiterated his government’s desire to hold talks with Taliban, but the militant organisation is not amused. So, where does that lead to?

afghanembassy.us

The US, which has renewed its offensive on the Taliban in recent months after President Donald Trump committed to an open-ended conflict in Afghanistan in August last year, would not like to be seen as surrendering and admitting defeat if it were to hold talks with the Taliban. In a marked departure from his call during presidential electioneering for an early US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Trump has sent more troops in recent months as he vowed “a fight to win” when he unveiled his administration’s strategy for the war-torn country. President Trump stands to invite ridicule if his administration jumps the gun and enters into a direct dialogue with the Taliban at this stage. Therefore, the US wants Afghanistan to do the bidding on its behalf. 

President Ghani knows too well that the US forces would not be there forever as there is increasing pressure from the families of the American soldiers and the people to make an early exit from Afghanistan. Since 2001, when the Taliban were dislodged from power, the Afghan war has cost 2,400 American lives and $1 trillion. Ghani has gone on record admitting that the Afghan National Army will not last more than six months if the US were to withdraw its forces. He even feared the collapse of the government. Aware of this danger, President Ghani is desperate to start negotiations with the Taliban. By offering to recognise the Taliban as a legitimate political group, proposing a ceasefire and release of prisoners and holding “unconditional” talks, shows his desperation.

forces.net

The Taliban, which is facing an onslaught from the US forces, wants an early ceasefire to have a much-needed breather. Since last year, it has lost several of its top commanders besides a large number of foot soldiers. It smells twin advantages if talks with the US became a reality. Not only will it escape the intensified fury, it will put the US on the back foot. For the Taliban, it will be a win-win solution as it will enter into dialogue with an upper hand. If the dialogue reaches its logical conclusion, it stands a chance to be accepted as a political group and who knows return to power. But if talks collapse, it will have enough time to recoup and recalibrate its strategy. Moreover, the Taliban does not consider Ghani government as a powerful adversary which it can easily run over in the event of US troop withdrawal.

It remains to be seen if all the major parties are prepared to shift their stance. And even if they do, the chances of an early solution look unlikely as long as Pakistan does not relinquish its support to groups like the Haqqani network.

(The article first appeared on Wionnews.com)