Masood Azhar proving to be Albatross around China’s neck

China is finding itself increasingly isolated after its blind support to Pakistan by repeatedly thwarting the United Nations efforts to declare Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist. The United States’ decision to discuss the issue of Azhar in the open UN General Assembly has put China in a very embarrassing situation. Frustrated by China’s intransigence not to lift the technical hold on the UN listing of Azhar as a global terrorist, the three key members of the P-5 Club in the UNSC have sought explanation from Beijing. There is no doubt that major countries have been exasperated with China for torpedoing the repeated efforts of the United Nations to ban Azhar.

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Rankled by the US decision to take the issue directly to the UN Security Council, China seems to be running out of its options. Sensing that it can no longer protect Jaish chief, China made its all-weather ally Pakistan to bail it out with a statement which exposes the nexus between the two countries. Last week, Pakistan suggested that China could withdraw its technical hold on Azhar if India agreed to military de-escalation along the border and resumed the stalled bilateral talks. It is clearly indicative of the realization on the part of both China and Pakistan that the issue could not be procrastinated further. China has reportedly been rebuked by the US after it made the issue of Indo-Pak military de-escalation and resumption of talks as pre-condition for lifting the technical hold on Azhar, thus allowing later to be listed as a global terrorist.

With the US refusing to play ball with China in linking the two issues and major members of the UN Security Council hardening their position on Azhar, time is running out for Beijing. China is now working to wriggle itself out of the situation and this week’s statement by its foreign office says it all. China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said in a regular media briefing: “After the application for designation of Azhar was proposed (in the 1267 Sanctions Committee), China is in close communication and coordination with various parties and made positive progress. The US knows that very well.”

“We hope various parties will meet each other half way and continue to properly solve this issue under the 1267 Committee framework. Last Friday, UN Security Council members exchanged views on the US-proposed draft resolution. The majority believes that efforts should be made to solve the issue under the 1267 Committee framework,” the spokesperson added.

The statement is not only significant but self-explanatory as China seems to be feeling the heat. It is matter of time before China falls in line and throws its weight behind the world in declaring Azhar a global terrorist. But it would make every effort to prolong the issue knowing well that India’s ruling party could use it as a major victory ahead of the national elections. Not mentioning US by name, the foreign ministry spokesman went on to add: “We believe under the current circumstances, forcing a draft resolution at the Security Council is not a constructive move and sets a bad example… It is also not conducive for peace and stability in South Asia. China is opposed to this.”

When asked specifically whether the US move to take Azhar’s listing directly to the UN Security Council could benefit the ruling BJP in general election, Geng said: “It is setting a bad example that will only complicate the matter … The general election is the domestic affair of India. We do not comment on that.”

There are three important elements to the statement. One, China has made its displeasure known at US attempts to corner it by referring the issue to the wider Security Council. Once the issue is deliberated in the Security Council, China will find itself isolated in the important forum as all the 15 countries (10 non-permanent members and five members) excluding Beijing are in favour of Azhar being declared a global terrorist in the aftermath of Pulwama attack when a JeM operative rammed an explosive-ridden vehicle into a convoy of CRPF killing at least 40 personnel in February. China is aware of its imminent defeat in the Security Council.

This is the fourth time that China has blocked a combined bid by the United States, France and the United Kingdom to declare Azhar a global terrorist by putting the proposal on a “technical hold” before eventually terminating it on the grounds that “there is no consensus” in the 1267 Committee of the UN Security Council.  How can there be a consensus if one country (read China) continues with its unprincipled stand on Azhar? In 2017 also, it was the odd nation out in the 15-member Security Council when the P3 nations – the US, UK and France – sought to place Azhar on the 1267 sanctions list that would have entailed his travel ban and freezing of assets. While the proposal had approval of all the other 14 members of the Security Council, it was China which censored it. Needless to say, China is misusing its veto power.

Second important point which exposes China’s double standards in the war against terrorism is how can listing Azhar as a global terrorist is not conducive for peace and stability in South Asia. One fails to understand the weird explanation offered by China. China’s opposition to proscribing Azhar is baffling given that Jaish-e-Mohammad has already been blacklisted by the 15-nation Security Council of which China is one of the five permanent members. The Jaish was blacklisted by the UN Security Council in 2001, a year after its formation, following a deadly attack on Indian parliament in December 2001, which had brought India and Pakistan on the verge of a fourth war. Strangely, China considers JeM an outlawed organization, but not its leader? 

What is China’s compulsion in protecting Azhar, who is, no doubt, a prized asset for Pakistan? Well, if the United Nations declares Azhar a global terrorist, then Pakistan will be compelled to arrest him and seize his assets.  And this is something the Imran Khan government can’t afford to do fearing violence by an army of militants prepared by Azhar. Most importantly, he enjoys the support of the Pakistani army. Does Imran Khan, who himself has been propped up by the army, have the guts to go after Azhar?

Thirdly and lastly, China does not want to give an issue on a platter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi when India is in midst of campaigning to elect its new parliament two months from now. The designation of Masood as a global terrorist and his subsequent arrest will no doubt be a big boost for Modi’s attempts in returning to power.  Therefore, China will keep on prolonging the issue as much as it can, but ultimately, it will be forced to fall in line. Any further attempts by China to stall the move will be seen as its weakening resolve to fight the global war against terrorism. It now needs to take a stand on which side of terror it stands. The world is watching it closely.

DEMONETISATION IS A FLOP SHOW

The verdict is out. In the next three months, the government’s Great Demonetisation Drive completes two years. And the country’s top bank has made a startling fact that almost all (99.3%) of the 15.4 trillion rupees high currency notes sucked out of circulation have been returned. The Reserve Bank of India report is a damning censure of the ill-conceived government move, which was touted as the panacea for all the ills, affecting the economy as well as the country’s internal security.

The RBI disclosure punctures the government’s several claims. During the abrupt November 8, 2016 address to the nation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had compared demonetization to a “mahayagna”, saying it would purify the country from corruption, black money, fake notes and terrorism. 

 The government made people to believe that with one stroke the corruption will be wiped out from the country. Has it? With almost all of the so-called Black Money back in the system, the claim flies in the face of the government. Last year, the Transparency International report dubbed India as the most corrupt Asian country. With a bribery rate of 69 per cent, India led the dubious list leaving behind even Pakistan.

The government invalidated 500 and 1000 rupee notes on the surmise that the large denomination currency notes were being used to stockpile black money and evade tax. If one buys the government theory, then it defies all logic when it introduced even a bigger currency note of Rs 2,000. Which is the larger denomination currency – a 1,000 rupee currency note or a 2,000 rupee currency note? Won’t it be easier to stash black money in the form of 2,000 rupee notes than the 1,000 rupee notes? 

Therefore, the government’s reasoning was far from the truth. One can draw only two plausible conclusions behind this exercise. Either the government was ill-advised or it was a deliberate attempt to convert the alleged black money into white.

Did the new colourful but highly deceptive (some even compared the new currency notes with ‘churan wali pudiya notes) currency notes make any dent on the fake currency notes as was claimed then? The fake new currency notes continue to be printed across the border and smuggled into India as several government agencies have seized them from time to time. With regard to terrorism, the less said the better. The terrorism related incidents have only spiked in Kashmir since then.

The RBI disclosure is also a big setback as the government had sniffed windfall gains expecting that between 2 to 3 lakh crore rupees would never return to the banking system. To the contrary, the so-called black money, on which the government had planned surgical strike, became legit. This raises a serious question on the intent of the government. With so much hidden money back into the system, the banks will now be bound to pay interest on the money parked with them. In effect, the cash lying idle at people’s homes has also started earning interest.

In a nutshell, the move to demonetize higher currency notes does not seem to have the desired results as the government had tom-tommed. The country is still struggling to come out of the shock which has caused more pain than gain.

IN RELEASING HAFIZ SAEED, PAKISTAN CHALLENGES INDIA AND US

 Pakistan has been a reluctant player in the global war against terrorism. This is not something which is not known to the world. But the frequent flip-flops by world powers have only emboldened Pakistan to carry out with its state policy of sponsoring terrorism with impunity. With unflinching support from its all-weather ally China, which has often misused its position of veto power at the Security Council, Pakistan does not care too hoots to reported threats or warnings. Pakistan has once again thumbed its nose to India and the United States by releasing terror mastermind Hafiz Saeed from house arrest.

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Pakistan may fend off criticism by saying that it is the court which has decided to free him and not the government. But it surely cannot escape blame for not presenting its case properly in the court, facilitating Saeed’s release from house arrest.  In fact, India has presented voluminous evidences to Pakistan for his role in the deadly 2008 Mumbai attacks. Pakistan’s feeble defence that Saeed’s release could invite economic sanctions did not cut ice with the court.

 Hafiz Saeed’s release is no doubt a setback for India, but it also sets Pakistan on a collision course with the United States which has announced a $10 million bounty on his head over the 2008 Mumbai attack that killed 166 people, including six Americans. It should be recalled that the United States Department of the Treasury had designated Saeed as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist under executive order 13224 in May 2008 before the Mumbai attacks happened. And a month later the November 26, 2008 Mumbai attacks, Saeed was also individually designated by the United Nations under UNSCR 1267. Ironically, Saeed had been moving freely in Pakistan ranting against India and the United States for more than eight years before his so-called house arrest in January this year. That Pakistan has allowed him to carry on with his anti-Kashmir agenda speaks volumes about its so-called seriousness as far as the war against terrorism is concerned.

Had the US been really serious about Saeed, it could have easily put pressure on Pakistan to act. But Saeed is a lesser threat to the US in comparison to India. That explains the reason why the US is not matching its words with action. The case in point is al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden who was smoked out from his safe compound of Abbotabad in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in May 2011 by the US elite forces.  The US had named Laden as the chief conspirator of the deadly September 11, 2001 attacks.

The US announced the bounty on Saeed in 2012 for information leading to his arrest and conviction four years after he was designated as a global terrorist. But the leader of Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), which has been a front for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) militant group, had been roaming free and giving hatred speeches against India and the US. While it took nearly 10 years for the United States to locate and kill Laden, Saeed has presented himself before the media and the people of Pakistan several times. If the US wanted, it could have easily eliminated Saeed. Who is playing the joke as far as bounty on Saeed is concerned? Pakistan or the United States, or both! The US reacted to Saeed’s release by making a supine statement. “The Pakistani government should make sure that he is arrested and charged for his crimes,” U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said.

It was only after India launched a major diplomatic drive against Pakistan for allowing the release of Sayeed that the US tempered its language the next day. A White House statement warned of repercussions for US-Pakistan relations and for Pakistan’s global reputation unless it took action to detain and charge Sayeed. Unlike the US State Department, the White House statement was very critical of Pakistan and warned that the relations between the two countries depended largely on the latter’s conduct. The White House said Pakistan’s failure to charge Saeed sent “a deeply troubling message about Pakistan’s commitment to (combating) international terrorism,” adding that it also was counter to Pakistan’s claim that it did not provide sanctuary to militants.

Unlike his predecessor Barack Obama, President Donald Trump has been vociferous in his criticism against Pakistan for its failure to take action against militants engineering attacks on Afghanistan and India from its safe sanctuaries. “We can no longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe havens for terrorist organisations,” Trump said while unveiling his administration’s policy for south Asia in August, adding that Pakistan would have “much to lose” if it did not comply. But such warnings have had little effect on Pakistan.

There is no doubt that Pakistan has, of late, fallen out of favour of the United States which accuses it of pocketing billions of dollars meant for anti-militant operations against Afghanistan. The US is fighting a war in Afghanistan against the very militants who have been trained and financed by Pakistan, and who continue to find safe sanctuary in Pakistan after carrying out attacks in Afghanistan.  The ties between the US and Pakistan have worsened further after the later moved closer to China in the last few years.

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If President Trump really wants to live up to his image and his words, then he should decide once and for all whether to continue ties with a country which has been playing a double game as far as the war against terrorism is concerned or to amend his administration’s decades-long carrot and stick approach. To begin with, Trump can revoke Pakistan’s non-NATO ally status. Though symbolic, it will deal a big reputational blow to Pakistan. Non-NATO ally status is conferred on countries which have a strategic working relationship with US forces but are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The then George Bush administration had designated the non-NATO ally status to Pakistan in 2004 for helping the US in its fight against al Qaeda and Taliban militants in Afghanistan. If Pakistan is still unmoved by this action, then President Trump will have to take a final call what Mr Bush famously used the phrase after the 9/11 attacks that “Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.”  

CHINA DRAGS ITS FEET ON FIGHT AGAINST TERROR

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Can China be a trusted ally in the global war against terrorism? The question assumes significance as it continues with its steadfast protection for chief of Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad Masood Azhar from being declared as a global terrorist by the United Nations Security Council. India has accused the JeM and its top leader, Masood Azhar, of masterminding several attacks, including a deadly assault on an Indian air base in January last year. Six Indian soldiers and five gunmen who stormed the Pathankot airbase were killed.

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China’s opposition to proscribing Azhar is perplexing given that Jaish-e-Mohammad has already been blacklisted by the 15-nation Security Council of which China is one of the five permanent members. If China is party to the decision to outlaw JeM, then its decision not to let its leader bracket in the same category is beyond any logic. It is high time the United Nations reconsider its original charter which gives veto power to five permanent members under which any one permanent nation can prevent the adoption of any substantive resolution. The rule of the majority within the five permanent members should follow. Otherwise, the international community will always be found wanting in its fight against terrorism due to double standards by some countries.

This is the second time in as many years that China has blocked a combined bid by the United States, France and the United Kingdom to declare Azhar a global terrorist saying “there is no consensus” in the 1267 Committee of the UN Security Council.  Where is the question of consensus if one country (read China) continues with its unwavering support for a dreaded terrorist like Azhar just only to please its ally Pakistan? China is the lone wolf in the Security Council. Last year also, it was the odd nation out in the 15-member Security Council to thwart India’s bid to place Azhar on the 1267 sanctions list that would have entailed his travel ban and freezing of assets. India’s application had the approval of all the other 14 members of the Security Council. Needless to say, China is misusing its veto power.

China’s support for Azhar, therefore, raises suspicion about its commitment to fight terrorism. Barely a few months ago, it was a signatory to the Xiamen Declaration which had called upon the international community to establish a "genuinely broad" international counter-terrorism coalition. Not only that, it was also a party to a decision of the five-member BRICS nations summit which called for decisive action against militant groups based in Pakistan terming them as a security concern in the region.

The groups named in the declaration included Taliban, (Islamic State)..., Al-Qaeda and its affiliates including Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Haqqani network, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, TTP and Hizb ut-Tahrir. Both Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad are anti-India groups based in Pakistan and have routinely carried out militant attacks in Kashmir and elsewhere in the country. India has accused LeT of carrying out the deadly terror attacks in Mumbai in 2008 in which at least 166 people were killed. JeM is also accused of masterminding the audacious attack on Indian Parliament in 2001.

Masood  Azhar is undoubtedly the prized asset for Pakistan. Not only has he meticulously planned several terrorist attacks against India, he has succeeded in creating an army of jihadis who are ready to lay down their lives at his command. His importance lies in the fact that Pakistan government along with its army and notorious Inter-Services Intelligence had made several attempts to get him released from a jail after he was arrested in Kashmir in 1994. Five years later, the Indian government was forced to release him and two others -- Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar and Omar Sheikh -- in exchange for the safe release of passengers of the Indian Airlines flight -814 which was hijacked and taken to Kandahar in Afghanistan.

If Azhar is declared a global terrorist, the government of Pakistan will be forced to arrest him and seize his assets. This is something the government does not want for two main reasons. Azhar has in the past threatened the government of violence if it made any such misadventure. Secondly, he enjoys the support of the Pakistani army. Therefore, the Pakistani establishment is cagey while taking any action against him, because it does not have the spine to challenge its own army. China, too, understands the predicament of its all-weather ally.  Therefore, it has been repeatedly blocking any attempt to outlaw Azhar even at the expense of its own image. For, China has in the past made several statements that there should be no double standards on counter-terrorism. China’s action belies its alleged commitment against terrorism.

It should be understood that China has its own compulsions as far as protecting Azhar is concerned. It is more to do with returning favours to Pakistan. Pakistan has in the past come to the rescue of China in the powerful Organisation of Islamic Cooperation which was critical of the latter’s repression of the Muslim Uighur community in Xinjiang province. In the last two years, hundreds have died in unrest in Xinjiang. Activists have accused China of curtailing commercial as well as cultural activities of Uighur. In fact, a 2013 report of the Amnesty International was highly critical of China’s handling of the situation in Xinjiang. It said authorities criminalized “what they labeled ‘illegal religious’ and ‘separatist’ activities” and clamped down on “peaceful expressions of cultural identity.”

As far as terrorism is concerned, China’s definition is completely at variant with the world. While the world recognizes the exiled Dalai Lama as the Tibetan spiritual leader, China considers him as a “dangerous separatist”. The Nobel Peace Prize recipient, who fled into exile in India in 1959 after a failed uprising against Chinese rule, has repeatedly said that he is simply seeking genuine autonomy for his homeland. China is accused of turning a blind eye to more than 150 Tibetans who have publicly immolated themselves over the years. Beijing is miffed with New Delhi for allowing Dalai Lama live in India. And that is also one of the reasons why it has been stonewalling New Delhi’s attempts to sanction Azhar to get even with it.

It is amply clear that China does not want to walk along with the rest of the world in the fight against terrorism. It chooses to define terrorists according to its own understanding as has been the case with Pakistan. It is high time China realizes the perils of differentiating between terrorists. Otherwise, it risks global isolation.

  

WILL CHINA WALK THE TALK ON TERROR?

Unpredictability seems to be the mantra of China’s foreign policy. To everyone’s surprise, China joined hands with the four other BRICS nations recently naming militant groups based in Pakistan as a security concern in the region and sought decisive action against them. It not only shocked Pakistan, but baffled foreign policy experts in China as well. Because it represented a marked departure from China’s long-standing approach towards militant groups active in Pakistan. In the past, China had stonewalled all efforts to censure Pakistan-based militant groups. Therefore, China being party to the Xiamen Declaration, calling upon the international community to establish a "genuinely broad" international counter-terrorism coalition, was something unexpected.

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Expectedly, there was a sense of disbelief and unease in Pakistani establishment. The next day Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khurram Dastagir Khan categorically rejected the statement and said no terrorist organization had any complete safe havens and was operating freely inside Pakistan. But its nervousness was palpable. The government decided to rush Foreign Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif to Beijing.

And lo! China sprang another surprise. Within days of BRICS leaders demanding that patrons of militant groups based in Pakistan be held to account, China extolled Pakistan’s role in the fight against terrorism. Soon after meeting his Pakistani counterpart, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi had this to say at a press conference. "The government and people of Pakistan have made huge sacrifices in the fight against terrorism and such efforts and sacrifices are there for everyone to see," adding “the international community should recognise that... and give Pakistan the full credit it deserves."

By revisiting its position on Pakistan’s involvement in terror activities twice in four days, China has only managed to send confusing signals to the international community about its intent to walk the talk on terror.

If China were to give a clean chit to Pakistan, then why did it agree to sign the Xiamen Declaration in the first place? China has always come to the defence of Pakistan whenever India tried to isolate it at various international fora. It has repeatedly rebuffed India’s attempt to get the chief of Jaish-e-Mohammad Masood Azhar added to a U.N. blacklist of groups linked to al Qaeda. India has accused the JeM and its top leader, Masood Azhar, of masterminding several attacks, including a deadly assault on an Indian air base in January last year. Six Indian soldiers and five gunmen who stormed the Pathankot airbase were killed.

The political pundits were also baffled as the Xiamen Declaration came within days of India and China agreeing to defuse a crisis over Doklam where the forces of the two countries were engaged in a dispute for more than two months. Given the bitter rhetoric the two countries were involved in, it was nothing more than a surprise that China agreed to name several terror groups based in Pakistan. The groups named in the declaration included Taliban, (Islamic State)..., Al-Qaeda and its affiliates including Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Haqqani network, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, TTP and Hizb ut-Tahrir. Other than Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the groups named in the declaration are engaged in terror activities both in Kashmir as well as in Afghanistan. Both Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad are anti-India groups based in Pakistan and have routinely carried out militant attacks in Kashmir and elsewhere in the country. Indian investigating agencies have blamed LeT for the deadly terror attacks in Mumbai in 2008 in which at least 166 people were killed and hundreds others wounded. JeM is accused of masterminding the audacious attack on Indian Parliament in 2001.

The censure of the groups came as a rude shock to Pakistan which was rattled by US President Donald Trump who singled out it for harbouring militants fighting against US military forces in Afghanistan. In a televised speech last month, Trump came down heavily on Pakistan as a fickle ally while announcing a new policy on Afghanistan. In the last few years, the relations between the United States and Pakistan have muddied and Washington has linked its military aid to Islamabad on its commitment to take action against the Haqqani network militants. The US has often accused Pakistan of hosting Haqqani group militants who are helping the Taliban in launching attacks in Afghanistan. Pakistan denies the accusation and portrays itself to be the biggest victim of terrorism claiming that it has suffered more than 60,000 casualties since 2001. Pakistan’s claims that Afghan Taliban militants do not enjoy a safe haven on its soil flew in the face last year when the then adviser to the Prime Minister on foreign affairs, Sartaj Aziz, admitted that Islamabad had considerable influence over the Taliban because its leaders live in the country.

What added to discomfiture of Islamabad was the inclusion of Pakistan-based Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, which China accuses it of fomenting trouble in Xinjiang, home to the Muslim Uighur people. In the last two years, hundreds have died in unrest in Xinjiang. China has often pressured Pakistan to take action against Uighur militants who are believed to be hiding in a tribal belt bordering Afghanistan.

Beijing is also facing heat back home after the abduction and killing of a Chinese couple in southwestern Pakistan. The Chinese were outraged as the killing came at a time when Beijing was pumping billions of dollars under the One Belt, One Road initiative, also known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, in Pakistan. Earlier also, several Chinese engineers involved in the project have been attacked and abducted, and later released by militants active in the restive Balochistan. There is apprehension among the people in the restive Balochistan, the resource-rich province of Pakistan, that the project will change the demography of the region and reduce the locals to minority in their homeland. The killings, though claimed by the Islamic State, led to souring of ties between the two countries.

Pakistan faces a diplomatic dilemma. The BRICS declaration, in a way, has supported India’s stand that Pakistan-based terror outfits pose a serious threat to regional security and that the world cannot afford to have double standards in the fight against terror. Washington has for long been ticking off Islamabad for not doing enough against militants ensconced there. Now with China also expressing its concern about JeM and LeT, the pressure on Pakistan to act against these groups is likely to build. However, it remains to be seen whether China will really put pressure on Pakistan to act against the terror groups active in Kashmir and Afghanistan. China’s flip-flops within a week on the issue do not inspire much confidence.