WHY SOME IN WEST DO NOT WANT CEASEFIRE IN UKRAINE TO SUCCEED

BY VIKAS KHANNA

The European Union is in a dilemma.  It just does not have any roadmap to confront Russia as Ukraine continues to burn. About 6,000 people have been killed since rebels backed by Russia launched an armed struggle in Ukraine last year after Moscow-backed president Viktor Yanukovich was forced to flee in the wake of massive protests and the installation of a new pro-European government. Since then there has been a tug of war between Russia and the West. Both the West and the Kremlin have their own agendas in Ukraine. Both accuse each other of destablising Ukraine.  While, Russia says it is the West which is pursuing a dangerous policy in the region, the West accuses Russia of orchestrating events in the east. 

Even as the ceasefire signed in Minsk last month appears to be holding despite sporadic violations, comments made by Britain’s foreign minister Philip Hammond and NATO military commander U. S. General Philip Breedlove threaten to contaminate the environment. Will somebody please tell Mr Hammond that diplomacy does not work on ifs and buts?  Mr Hammond jumped the gun by commenting that the European Union would prepare possible new sanctions on Russia if the Minsk ceasefire agreement is broken?

 

If that was not enough then super hawk NATO military commander General Breedlove went a step ahead and made exaggerated and unfounded claims that the self-defence forces, with the assistance of Russia, have prepared “over a thousand combat vehicles” and “sophisticated air defence, battalions of artillery” in the south-east of the country. He went on to add “What is clear is that right now it is not getting better, it is getting worse every day.” Interestingly, Germany, which is part of the NATO, slammed the commander terming his comments as “dangerous propaganda”. The unnecessary and hawkish comment came on a day when the OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe), which is monitoring the truce, said there was a decline of ceasefire violations and both pro-Russia rebels and Ukraine government were removing heavy weapons from the front line.

Does one then induce that both the United States and Britain have some designs to thwart diplomatic efforts of Germany and France which not only staved off the crisis but helped pave the way for a ceasefire last month? Hammond has gone on record saying that Britain does not have immediate plans to supply Kiev with weapons but it is “not ruling anything out for the future” as the situation in east Ukraine remains “dynamic”. It should be recalled that NATO military commander General Breedlove’s comments last month that the West should use “all the tools in the tool bag” had created a flutter as several European leaders were opposed to sending heavy weaponry to Ukraine.

NATO has also pointed finger at Russian President Vladimir Putin for the murder of Kremlin critic Boris Nemtsov. Last week, NATO deputy secretary general Alexander Vershbow told members of parliament from EU countries at a conference in Riga that “President Putin’s aim seems to be to turn Ukraine into a failed state and to suppress and discredit alternative voices in Russia.” It has not been known who pulled the trigger on Nemtsov. Kremlin has denied any involvement saying the killing was a provocation to discredit Putin.

Interestingly, there are deep divisions within the European Union also whether to slap more sanctions on Russia or even to extend the existing ones. While Britain, Poland and the Baltic states favour more and tougher sanctions, some other members, including Italy, Austria, Cyprus and Greece have blinkered view about sanctions. There is no doubt that while sanctions have started bleeding Russia, the European Union is also feeling the heat as several members of the bloc are dependent on Russia for their energy needs. 

As things stand today, there does not seem an immediate solution to the crisis. With suspicion running deep between Russia and the West, it is highly unlikely that any of the parties will climb down from their respective positions. However, it is imperative that the hostilities do not escalate further and attempts are made to maintain peace in the region. A permanent solution can be found only if there is a lasting peace. (ENDS)