HOPE KASHMIR CEASEFIRE DOES NOT BACKFIRE?

Pix courtesy: youtube.com

HOPE KASHMIR CEASEFIRE DOES NOT BACKFIRE?

Ceasefire may sound good politically, but all political decisions do not necessarily lead to the desired results. Ceasefire is acceptable as long as both the warring parties agree to it. Holding a ceasefire unilaterally against the mercenaries is akin to waving a white flag. The Bharatiya Janata Party-led central government’s decision to announce ceasefire in Kashmir during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan is a well-intentioned move, taken primarily to please its partner People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Jammu and Kashmir with whom it shares power. One hopes the country does not have to pay a heavy price for this unilateral decision which has already been met with disdain by militant groups active in Kashmir.

Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba took no time in rejecting the ceasefire calling it a drama. And a day after maintaining a studied silence, the Kashmir-based separatist leaders – Syed Ali Geelani, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and Yasin Malik too denounced the ceasefire. It is ample clear that militants and separatists don’t understand the language of peace and have little regard for the safety and well-being of the common people who are also falling prey in the process, and want Kashmir to be on the boil just only to please their masters sitting across the border. The separatist leaders are the biggest disruptive forces who have time and again shown their true colour by obstructing the peace process.

Now the big question is whether the armed forces were taken on board when the decision was taken? They are the people who have been staking their lives, making countless sacrifices since the militancy erupted in Kashmir in the late eighties. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 6,387 Indian soldiers have laid down their lives (till May 13, 2018) since 1988 when militancy raised its ugly head in Kashmir. During the same period, 14,828 innocent civilians had to lose their lives. In the last 30 years, Indian soldiers neutralised 23,423 militants. These figures speak for the valour of the security personnel who did not flinch in shedding their blood to bring normalcy to the troubled state. At a time, when the armed forces had been on the hot pursuit against the militants, mostly infiltrated into Kashmir from Pakistan, comes this shocker in the form of ceasefire.

Already 30 Indian soldiers have been martyred in Kashmir this year since January as against 72 militants. The figures show the militants have become more lethal, better armed and well-trained to cause maximum casualties. Any amount of leniency towards militants is bound to demoralise the forces which are up against all odds. Not only do they have to bear the brunt of the locals who offer themselves as shields to help escape militants, but often pelt security forces with stones to prevent them from launching any offensive against the militants. Can one understand the pain and agony of these security personnel who face humiliation at the hands of civilians on whose protection they are endangering their lives?

Did the government take into account the fears of security forces that the militants may recoup during the one-month period which may only allow them to re-energise? The militants have been on the back foot right now and lowering the guard against them seems to be a suicidal idea. Of late, several high profile militants have been accounted for, leading to vaccum in the leadership of several militant groups. Therefore, dropping the gun at a time when the security forces were having upper hand is beyond reason. The need of the hour was to maintain the hot trail against the militants whose morale is low.

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The government’s peace overtures have often been junked by the jihadi elements in the past. The fact was certainly lost on Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti when she made an appeal to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take a leaf out of the book of the then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee when his government announced ceasefire in December 2000. Her memory seems to be short as within one month of the ceasefire, a group of Lashkar-e-Toiba militants made an abortive bid to storm the Srinagar airport. In the gun battle that ensued, 11 people, including six militants, three paramilitary soldiers and two civilians, were killed. Is there any guarantee that such an incident will not be repeated, that too when LeT has already denounced the ceasefire.

Even one presumes that the local militants may adhere to ceasefire, there is every reason to believe that Pakistan-based militants will not? One such group has already made its intention clear. Summers are the perfect months when militants make infiltrations into Kashmir from the Pakistani side. Already there have been 48 infiltration bids from across the border till April this year, of which 24 attempts have been successful. Pakistan just can’t resist the temptation to push in as many militants taking advantage of the weather. Moreover, it will do all it can to force Indian security personnel to retaliate so as to put them into poor light. As long as Pakistan does not become party to the ceasefire and follows it in letter and spirit, these one-sided ceasefire offers will hold no water.

The fight against militancy can’t be successful with such knee-jerk reactions when the adversary uses it as a proxy war against you. In order to win the war against terrorism, one will have to keep in mind that militancy cannot be contained; it has to be stamped out completely. We have a perfect example in Punjab. Smarting under humiliating defeats, Pakistan first took advantage of the simmering situation in Punjab and played host to several Khalistani militants. Not only did it shelter them at its backyard, Pakistan financed and trained them militarily as well. It took a heavy-handed approach of the then governments which helped in wiping out militancy from the state.

Why can’t the same approach be applied to Kashmir? When its purpose was defeated in Punjab, Pakistan turned to Kashmir. Needless to say, there is an undeclared war in Kashmir. Thousands of people have been killed in Jammu and Kashmir in the last three decades in the name of the so-called freedom movement. The government of India just can’t and should not afford to be lenient to the mercenaries who are out to disturb the social fabric of the country. We just can’t let down our security forces.

GOVERNOR OF KARNATAKA OR BJP’S MAN FRIDAY?

Karnataka governor Vajubhai Vala administering oath to Yeddyurappa (Pix courtesy India.com)

Karnataka governor Vajubhai Vala not only made a mockery of himself, but insulted the constitution as well by inviting Yeddyurappa to form a minority government brushing aside the claims of the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) which entered into a post-poll alliance to form a government following a hung assembly. He further lowered his image by giving Yeddyurappa 15 days to prove majority on the floor of the house, giving him enough time to engage in horse-trading. His actions proved that he was not worthy of the post of the governor as his action was biased towards a party he belonged to in the past, namely, the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Was his decision prompted by the fact that he owed his present stint as governor of the state to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP president Amit Shah? So, he thought of paying it back to them by inviting Yeddyurappa to form the next government even though the latter did not have the sufficient numbers. Was he so naive to believe that his unconstitutional action would pass the test of the law? 

As expected, the country’s highest court intervened and cut down the 15-day period to just one day so that Yeddyurappa and his team could not engineer coup in the opposition camp either through purchasing votes or pressuring some of the newly elected MLAs to abstain during voting.

And when the moment of truth came, Yeddyurappa chickened out. Realising that his two-day government would not pass the test on the floor of the assembly, he resigned paving the way for the formation of a government led by JDS state chief H D Kumaraswamy, who has the support of the Congress party. 

It must be interesting to note that Yeddyurappa has never completed his full five-year term even though this was his third shot at the chief ministership of Karnataka. The first time when he became chief minister was in 2007 when he ruled for just seven days when the BJP’s then coalition partner JD (S) withdrew support. He became chief minister for the second time in 2008, but his stint lasted 39 months before he was arrested on corruption charges.

Now that Yeddyurappa’s fate has been sealed, the pertinent question is whether Governor Vajubhai Vala acted on his own! With such a long legislative experience in Gujarat, it is unlikely that he would not have thought about the repercussions of his action. Or was he coerced by the BJP which had anointed him to the coveted post? The suspicion is bound to be raised as of late the actions of several BJP-appointed governors have come under scrutiny.

There is no doubt that the Karnataka governor has caused immense damage to the dignity of the constitutional post he holds. If Mr. Vala wants to absolve himself of the sin, he should quit immediately maintaining the dignity of a governor.

DOES NAWAZ SHARIF SUFFER FROM DEMENTIA?

Did not Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif know about the presence of militant organizations in his own country? Did not he know who were responsible for carrying out dastardly Mumbai attacks? Did not he know that agencies in Pakistan were deliberately delaying the trial of the 26/11 attacks? Did not he know that any democratically-elected government in Pakistan never had any teeth? Was Mr Nawaz Sharif stupefied all through his three terms as prime minister? And finally, it has dawned on him after waking up from deep slumber that he must share the worst-kept secrets which he thinks the world does not know.

tribune.com.pk

“Militant organisations are 

active. Call them non-state 

actors, should we allow them to 

cross the border and kill 150 

people in Mumbai? Explain it to 

me. Why can’t we complete the 

trial?” — a reference to the 

Mumbai attacks-related trials which have stalled in a Rawalpindi 

anti-terrorism court.”

To be fair to the Pakistani people, this was an angry man taking on the ‘real’ establishment players and the judiciary for allegedly scuttling his chances of returning to power. Sharif feels deprived after the top court ordered his removal as head of his Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) this year following his disqualification from public office after a probe into his family's wealth following the 2016 Panama Papers leak which linked Sharif's children to offshore companies. Sharif, who could never complete his full five-year term as prime minister, sees political conspiracy hatched against him by the Pakistani army and the judiciary. In his previous two stints also he was unceremoniously removed – first in 1993 by a presidential order and second time when General Pervez Musharraf overthrew his government in a coup in 1999 which saw him jailed and later exiled.

Sharif, who is in the midst of a campaign for national elections due later this year, seems to have played his cards all wrong. Even political pundits in Pakistan are baffled over Sharif’s statement which seems to hurt his party’s chances more at the hustings. The opposition has latched on to his statement accusing him of pro-India. There is no doubt that his statement seems more at playing to the gallery in India rather than in Pakistan. India’s charges will gain currency in the wake of Sharif’s statements. India has repeatedly been accusing Pakistan’s army, its intelligence agency and the non-state actors for felicitating the attacks on Mumbai in which 164 people died and more than 300 were wounded. In the days and months to come, he will be pilloried in Pakistan by the opposition parties for compromising national interests. Moreover, he may feel intense heat from within his party as the opposition is bound to make it an election issue.

Smarting under Sharif’s criticism, the Pakistani army and the notorious Inter-State Intelligence would redouble their efforts to malign his image. That Sharif is not the favourite boy of Pakistani military is an open secret. Sharif’s dreams to nurture better relations with India have been repeatedly scuttled by the powerful army in the past. Sharif’s signing of the historic Lahore Declaration with the then Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in February 1999 did not go down well with the military establishment which undertook a military operation in Kargil the same year. The army was miffed with Sharif’s decision to open up trade, liberalizing the visa regime and encouraging people-to-people contacts between Pakistan and India. Though Sharif has feigned ignorance in the past claiming that he was stabbed in the back by his own army over his decision to improve relations with India, several former Pakistani military leaders have maintained that he was in the know of the operation. The Kargil misadventure not only bloodied the nose of Pakistani army, but Sharif had to rush to the United States to seek its intervention to resolve the crisis.

Sharif’s decision to travel to India for the grand swearing-in ceremony of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014 and welcoming him in Lahore on the 2015 Christmas Day when the latter made a surprise visit to Pakistan from Afghanistan further anguished the Pakistani army. Is it a mere coincidence that Pakistan-backed militants carried out a deadly attack on the Indian Air Force base in Pathankot precisely seven days after the Modi-Sharif Lahore meeting aimed at reviving the stalled bilateral talks? This has been a regular pattern that there are dastardly attempts to scuttle the talks whenever the two countries try to mend ties.

Sharif seems to have made a tactical mistake by portraying the army and judiciary in poor light in the election time when Kashmir used to be the flavor of all the political parties in the past. Leaders of Pakistani political parties have been riding piggy back successfully on the Kashmir issue during elections. Sharif seems to be trying to inject a new narrative this season which may backfire. In the process, he has not only exacerbated his rivalry with the military and the judiciary, but stands to lose the support of the people as well.