Nitish Kumar’s decision to resign as chief minister of Bihar
has put Rashtriya Janata Dal president Lalu Prasad Yadav in a tight spot. For,
he will be seen by people as a villain for the fall of the government as he put
up stiff opposition to the resignation demand of his corruption-tainted son
Tejashwi Yadav. In one masterstroke, Nitish has shown to the people of Bihar
and the country that he could sacrifice his government than let anybody cast
aspersions on his image. There is no doubt that his political stock has gone up
several notches. In fact, Nitish was not
very comfortable to share political space with his one time
friend-turned-foe-turned-friend Lalu who has several corruption cases stacked
against him. But he was forced to be part of the “mahagathbandhan” or grand
alliance to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from coming to power in
Bihar. The thick-skinned Lalu’s insistence not to drop his son from the
government forced the hands of Nitish who did not want to be seen as
compromising with corruption.
What happens next?
Will the alliance partners elect a new
leader minus Nitish and Tejashwi as proposed by Lalu to save the government? It
looks unlikely as Nitish decision to resign to set high moral grounds would then
appear to be a political stunt. Moreover, Nitish would have consulted his
Janata Dal United party before taking this far-reaching decision. Therefore,
Lalu’s proposal falls flat. The arithmetic is such that RJD, which emerged as
the single largest party in the 2015 elections, can’t form the government even
if it secures the support of the Congress.
There are two possibilities. The BJP, which has already
announced that it is against mid-term polls, may agree to prop up the Nitish
government by offering outside support. But it remains to be seen whether
Nitish would be agreeable to the offer from his former ally whom he divorced in
2013. Of late, Nitish has been seen cosying up to the BJP by throwing his
weight behind the NDA presidential candidate Ram Nath Kovind causing consternation
among the anti-NDA partners. It should not be difficult for Nitish to revisit
his decision and break the bread with the BJP again as there are not permanent
enemies in politics. Moreover, Narendra Modi has emerged as a no-nonsense prime
minister who is seen as pushing aggressively for economic reforms without
inviting any stain of corruption against any of his cabinet colleagues. The BJP
would also like to see Nitish at the helm without Lalu. It will be like killing
two birds with one stone. Not only will Lalu lose his face and the next
elections, it will also spell doom for the Congress party which is clutching on
to these regional parties to stay relevant. But a lot will depend on Nitish if
he has to accept the BJP offer. For, the 2015 Bihar verdict was clearly against
the BJP-led NDA.
The next possibility could be a rebellion in Lalu’s party. Some
of the RJD MLAs, who are not comfortable with the stranglehold of Lalu and his
family on the party, may rebel and join hands with Nitish. This makes sense as they
also know it well that the Lalu and his family is fighting a lost battle. With
the CBI filing a case against Lalu, his wife and former chief minister Rabri
Devi, their son Tejashwi and others against irregularities in awarding the
tender for development, maintenance and operation of hotels in Ranchi and Puri
in 2006, it will be difficult for the RJD to approach the next elections with
conviction. This is one of several corruption cases filed against Lalu and his
family. And if the snap elections are to be held now, the RJD is bound to
suffer an ignominious defeat. This will certainly weigh heavily on them if they
decide to continue with the party. Moreover, some of them would not like to
lose the perks as the next elections are due only in 2020. So, why would they
spoil their political career by siding with Lalu and seen as a party to
corruption? By now, they must have known the pulse of the voters who defeated
the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance in the 2014 general election. That
vote was against the corruption.
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