Mulayam divorces Janata Parivar! Any surprises?

By Vikas Khanna 

The Janata Parivar marriage is on the rocks. Hardly had the marriage between six political 

parties been solemnized, and it has run into rough weather. And today, Samajwadi Party walked out on the Parivar, puncturing efforts of the socialist parties to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming Bihar elections. A marriage with six partners was bound to fail as no one partner could be gratified completely. And with egoist Mulayam Singh Yadav's party getting just five seats (initially two seats), the writing was clear on the wall. The remaining three seats were given to his party from the quota of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) which decided to part ways and to contest elections on its own. The Bihar state unit of Samajwadi Party felt humiliated and pressurized Mulayam to call it quits. That he was feeling marginalized in the new alliance became ample clear when Mulayam abstained from the mega Swabhiman rally organised by the alliance partners on August 30 in Patna and sent his brother Shivpal instead.

Has he sprung any surprises? Not exactly. For, Mulayam is a known turn-coat and has often deserted his partners in the past whenever he sensed opportunities. His first victim was his mentor Chandrashekhar when he decided to end his relationship with him to join the bandwagon of V.P. Singh in 1989 who formed a coalition government after defeating the then Rajiv Gandhi government. Ten years later, he caused a major embarrassment to Sonia Gandhi who, assured of a support from Mulayam, staked her claim to form a new government after the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee government fell in a no-trust motion. But that was not to be and fresh elections were called leading to the return of Vajpayee at the helm. His most infamous treachery came to the fore in 2008 when he decided to support the UPA government led by Manmohan Singh when the Left Front withdrew support on the controversial nuclear deal agreement with the United States. Mulayam's party continued to support the Manmohan Singh government from outside before snapping it ahead of the general elections last year. In between, he has also flirted with other parties.

It should be noted that Mulayam's decision to ditch the grand alliance does not make much of a difference as his party has very little presence in Bihar. But it will certainly send mixed signals to the masses that all is not well within the so-called Parivar and may help the BJP instead, though marginally.

Now, the Parivar is left with the Janata Dal (United) led by Nitish Kumar and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) regional satrap Lalu Prasad Yadav. The other smaller parties are Janata Dal (Secular) of H. D. Deve Gowda, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) led by Om Prakash Chautala and Samajwadi Janata Party. The alliance also has the support of the Congress party. Together they are a formidable alliance capable to take on the might of the BJP, provided they remain united.

It remains to be seen whether the BJP, whose victory juggernaut was stopped by the upstart Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi early this year, will be able to repeat its Lok Sabha performance in the state elections. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance stumped all in last year's parliamentary elections, when it bagged 31 out of the 40 parliamentary seats completely annihilating its rivals. The Lok Sabha elections forced the regional rivals - Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav - to forget their differences to join hands together. To ensure that their political alignment remains intact, both the leaders stitched together family ties when Mulayam's grandnephew Tej Pratap Singh married Lalu's youngest daughter Rajalakshmi early this year.

The Lok Sabha elections sent shivers down the spine as the existence of both the regional parties was at stake. Nitish Kumar's JDU, which parted ways with the BJP ahead of general elections after Modi was crowned to lead the party, managed to bag only two seats while Lalu's RJD got four seats. BJP finished on the top with 22, its best ever performance in the state. The humiliating defeat led to the germination of an alliance which alone could stop the BJP-led alliance in its tracks.

The two leaders are convinced that an alliance as such with support from the Congress party had the potential to upset Modi's applecart. It should be recalled that when the JD-U-BJP combine fought the assembly elections five years ago to romp home victory, the former got 115 seats while the BJP bagged 91 seats. In percentage terms, the JD-U polled 22.6 percent of the total votes whereas the BJP secured 16.46 percent. Lalu's RJD, which secured more votes in percentage terms (18.84) than the BJP, however, got only 22 seats. Now that the JD-U and RJD have decided to fight together, their percentage will be 41.4 which may cause alarm for the BJP-led alliance. The Congress with 8.38 percent and three smaller parties together tip the scales in favour of the socialist alliance. But there is a big IF and that it these parties should at least maintain their vote bank.

There is no doubt that Bihar elections will be a closely-fought elections. And Prime Minister Modi is aware of the caste logarithm. That is why his party has roped in Jitan Ram Manjhi, who comes from a community classified as Mahadalit, which is extremely backward scheduled caste. It should be noted that scheduled castes constitute about 16 percent of Bihar's population. Besides, Modi has unleashed largesses to woo the voters. Will the Modi magic and moneybags turn the tables? Only time will tell!