Its Modi’s NDA versus Bihar’s DNA

By Vikas Khanna

Will Bihar’s DNA match the might of BJP-led NDA? The high octane bout will be played in five rounds before the knock-out on November 8 when the winner will be announced. Caste will once again dominate the results as both the BJP and Bihar’s ruling Janata Dal (United) have lapped up as many parties which can court their respective communities. So, it is clear that both the groupings have little faith on the development plank on which they claim to have been wooing the electorate aggressively.

On the paper, the Nitish Kumar team looks formidable as against the NDA which is solely banking on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the last two assembly elections held in 2005 and 2010 respectively, the vote share of JD(U)-Lalu  Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress combine has been much more than the total of BJP and Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan. While 23.1 percent of total votes polled were pocketed by others in the 2005 assembly elections, the vote-share of others in the 2010 assembly election was 27 percent. However, both the alliances have netted some of OTHERS this time. In fact, both the JD(U) and the BJP have increased their vote share in the last assembly election at the expense of the RJD whose vote share dived by 4.7 percent. But the grand alliance cobbled up by Nitish and Lalu risks dissension as those who have been denied tickets may either join rival parties or stand as independents eating into its vote bank.

But a close study of the last year’s Lok Sabha elections shows that the BJP’s vote share increased by a whopping 16 percent from 13.9 percent in the 2009 parliamentary elections to 29.9 percent riding mainly on the huge popularity surge of Modi which swept him to power. In fact, Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) suffered the most as its vote share plunged by eight percent, leading to its complete annihilation as it managed to secure just two of  the 40 seats.

But there is a difference in the voting pattern during Lok Sabha and assembly elections. While national issues dominate the parliamentary elections, the state elections are fought on local issues. The BJP’s success in the last Lok Sabha elections was due to a complete disapproval of the then ruling Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Not only did the Congress bite the dust, its allies were also roundly rejected by the people as the alliance was seen seeped deep in corruption. It was a vote against the then establishment and the BJP and its allies benefited largely out of it. But it remains to be seen whether the BJP-led alliance can replicate the success in the national elections this time.

Here in comes the question of DNA of Biharis or the pride of Bihar and its natives. Will the people of Bihar digest the humiliation and vote for the party which claims to change the face of Bihar if elected to power? There is no doubt that any state stands to benefit more if it votes for the same party which rules at the centre. Modi has been drawing huge crowds in comparison to the leaders of the Nitish-led alliance. And most of the people turning out at Modi’s rallies are the youth, who have ambitions but have been denied their rightful due by the previous governments. In Modi, they see a ray of hope. And they can swing the outcome of elections this time. What makes this 18-40 age group important is that it constitutes about 46 percent of the electorate. The BJP-led alliance is banking heavily on this group as it eyes win in the elections. The goodies that have been showered by Modi and the lofty development promises made during the successive election rallies are an exercise in this direction.

 But 2015 is not 2014. A lot has changed since then. The BJP suffered its worst ever defeat in the Delhi elections at the hands of a rookie Aam Aadmi Party early this year. The economic reforms have virtually been stalled. If the nation is growing at around 7 percent, it is not due to the government efforts. Most of the country’s economic success has been due to the fall of oil prices in international markets. The country’s fuel import bill has been more than halved. The stocks, which had risen sharply in the expectation of good governance hopes, are almost back to the level of pre-Modi era. The Indian currency is heading south. Such is the state of economy that India catches fever when China sneezes! The prices of essential commodities and vegetables have started pinching the common man. The economic barometers certainly don’t fuel optimism in the very near future. Till a few months ago, Modi used to tom-tom about the country’s march to progress and indulge in self-pat, even crediting the “Achche Din” (Good Days) to him being the lucky mascot.

A lot is at stake for Modi and his party in the upcoming Bihar elections. If the BJP-led alliance wins the election, it will not only strengthen his hands to speed up the economic agenda, but will weaken the opposition led by the Congress, which has been blamed for stalling the parliamentary work.  Bihar win may propel similar outcomes in the future state elections. But Bihar being Bihar, the caste calculus can’t be brushed aside. It’s a battle between development and caste. Which way the state votes will be decided only on the D-day, i. e., November 8. Till then, speculations galore!  

Mulayam divorces Janata Parivar! Any surprises?

By Vikas Khanna 

The Janata Parivar marriage is on the rocks. Hardly had the marriage between six political 

parties been solemnized, and it has run into rough weather. And today, Samajwadi Party walked out on the Parivar, puncturing efforts of the socialist parties to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming Bihar elections. A marriage with six partners was bound to fail as no one partner could be gratified completely. And with egoist Mulayam Singh Yadav's party getting just five seats (initially two seats), the writing was clear on the wall. The remaining three seats were given to his party from the quota of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) which decided to part ways and to contest elections on its own. The Bihar state unit of Samajwadi Party felt humiliated and pressurized Mulayam to call it quits. That he was feeling marginalized in the new alliance became ample clear when Mulayam abstained from the mega Swabhiman rally organised by the alliance partners on August 30 in Patna and sent his brother Shivpal instead.

Has he sprung any surprises? Not exactly. For, Mulayam is a known turn-coat and has often deserted his partners in the past whenever he sensed opportunities. His first victim was his mentor Chandrashekhar when he decided to end his relationship with him to join the bandwagon of V.P. Singh in 1989 who formed a coalition government after defeating the then Rajiv Gandhi government. Ten years later, he caused a major embarrassment to Sonia Gandhi who, assured of a support from Mulayam, staked her claim to form a new government after the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee government fell in a no-trust motion. But that was not to be and fresh elections were called leading to the return of Vajpayee at the helm. His most infamous treachery came to the fore in 2008 when he decided to support the UPA government led by Manmohan Singh when the Left Front withdrew support on the controversial nuclear deal agreement with the United States. Mulayam's party continued to support the Manmohan Singh government from outside before snapping it ahead of the general elections last year. In between, he has also flirted with other parties.

It should be noted that Mulayam's decision to ditch the grand alliance does not make much of a difference as his party has very little presence in Bihar. But it will certainly send mixed signals to the masses that all is not well within the so-called Parivar and may help the BJP instead, though marginally.

Now, the Parivar is left with the Janata Dal (United) led by Nitish Kumar and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) regional satrap Lalu Prasad Yadav. The other smaller parties are Janata Dal (Secular) of H. D. Deve Gowda, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) led by Om Prakash Chautala and Samajwadi Janata Party. The alliance also has the support of the Congress party. Together they are a formidable alliance capable to take on the might of the BJP, provided they remain united.

It remains to be seen whether the BJP, whose victory juggernaut was stopped by the upstart Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi early this year, will be able to repeat its Lok Sabha performance in the state elections. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance stumped all in last year's parliamentary elections, when it bagged 31 out of the 40 parliamentary seats completely annihilating its rivals. The Lok Sabha elections forced the regional rivals - Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav - to forget their differences to join hands together. To ensure that their political alignment remains intact, both the leaders stitched together family ties when Mulayam's grandnephew Tej Pratap Singh married Lalu's youngest daughter Rajalakshmi early this year.

The Lok Sabha elections sent shivers down the spine as the existence of both the regional parties was at stake. Nitish Kumar's JDU, which parted ways with the BJP ahead of general elections after Modi was crowned to lead the party, managed to bag only two seats while Lalu's RJD got four seats. BJP finished on the top with 22, its best ever performance in the state. The humiliating defeat led to the germination of an alliance which alone could stop the BJP-led alliance in its tracks.

The two leaders are convinced that an alliance as such with support from the Congress party had the potential to upset Modi's applecart. It should be recalled that when the JD-U-BJP combine fought the assembly elections five years ago to romp home victory, the former got 115 seats while the BJP bagged 91 seats. In percentage terms, the JD-U polled 22.6 percent of the total votes whereas the BJP secured 16.46 percent. Lalu's RJD, which secured more votes in percentage terms (18.84) than the BJP, however, got only 22 seats. Now that the JD-U and RJD have decided to fight together, their percentage will be 41.4 which may cause alarm for the BJP-led alliance. The Congress with 8.38 percent and three smaller parties together tip the scales in favour of the socialist alliance. But there is a big IF and that it these parties should at least maintain their vote bank.

There is no doubt that Bihar elections will be a closely-fought elections. And Prime Minister Modi is aware of the caste logarithm. That is why his party has roped in Jitan Ram Manjhi, who comes from a community classified as Mahadalit, which is extremely backward scheduled caste. It should be noted that scheduled castes constitute about 16 percent of Bihar's population. Besides, Modi has unleashed largesses to woo the voters. Will the Modi magic and moneybags turn the tables? Only time will tell!