UKRAINE CAUGHT IN A CROSSFIRE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND WEST

By Vikas Khanna


Tension seems to be escalating once again in Ukraine after a two-month lull. Reports of US considering military assistance to Ukraine and Russia massing troops near the border are warning signs. This amid a fierce debate in Europe over whether to impose more sanctions on Russia as the West accuses it of not adhering to the second Minsk accord signed in February this year. Any of these sparks could re-ignite the crisis and lead to the collapse of the fragile ceasefire which is in place despite sporadic incidents of violence. Already, more than 6,000 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine since the onset of the war in Donetsk and Luhansk last year.


The US is in a dilemma. Critics back home accuse President Barack Obama of wavering in his response to what they see as the most dangerous and complex security challenge since the Cold War. Hawks have been putting pressure on him to either intervene against Russian forces on the ground or to arm Ukraine. But it is easier said than done. The first option is fraught with greater risks. The Obama administration is puzzled. If it were to go ahead with arms supplies, who should be the recipient? The Ukrainian military is not a united force. There are many in the military who owe their allegiance to Russia. Since last year, Ukrainian authorities have arrested more than 300 senior officers for allegedly spying for Russia. There is every possibility of arms falling into the wrong hands.

 In any case, arming the Ukrainian military is not in the best interest of either the US or Ukraine. The US supply of arms to Ukraine will fuel Russian anger, which in all probability will escalate the war. This could flare up tensions between the US and Russia.


The sad truth is that among all those involved in the Ukraine imbroglio – no one seems to have any answer to the crisis as each side trades charges against the other. While Russia accuses the US of breaking the Minsk agreement by sending hundreds of troops to western Ukraine to train the national army, President Vladimir Putin denies that any of his forces are inside Ukraine. Obviously, both are hiding the truth.

Everyone in Kiev or for that matter in the West knows there is no way of getting back the lost territory by force. There were murmurs of protests when Russia occupied and annexed Crimea last year. The best the West could do was to slap sanctions on Russia. Intending to inflict pain on Moscow, some of the countries in the West started bleeding on the contrary as their energy bills inflated and economy started showing signs of weakness after President Putin stopped energy supplies to them in retaliation. Today the West is completely divided as far as the sanctions are concerned. Some believe the more stringent and punitive sanctions will create problems inside Russia forcing it to eventually back off from Ukraine. But there are others who have been arguing to lift economic sanctions as these are proving to be counter-productive.


The Minsk accord itself is not a lasting peace settlement. It was a half-baked deal whose main aim was to de-escalate the war like situation between Ukrainian military and rebels, believed to have the backing of Russia. And till today, the West sees in the accord a ray of hope as it does not have a Plan B. The fact remains that there has been virtually no progress since the ceasefire came into being. The situation is lying in a limbo with no concrete effort made for dialogue to find a permanent solution.


With no early solution in sight, Ukraine is proving to be a burdensome ally to the West. The country is on the verge of financial collapse. Its economy has shrunk almost 18 percent in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the same period last year. Inflation is out of control, galloping to 61 percent year-on-year. Its currency has fallen more than a third with foreign exchange reserves down to a few weeks. It is estimated that Ukraine needs more than 50 billion dollars to survive. With the West sticking its neck in what was primarily a dispute between Moscow and Kiev, it will have to cough up that amount. And if the hostility escalates, the price tag is only going to increase. West today finds itself in a Catch 22 situation, struggling to wriggle out of the mess.