Today at 6:40 AM
BY VIKAS KHANNA
In a major diplomatic push, leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France decided to meet again in Belarus’s capital Minsk this Wednesday to discuss a durable peace plan for eastern Ukraine, where clashes between government forces and pro-Russian rebels have left more than 5,350 killed and over 12,000 wounded. An air of uncertainty shrouds talks as President Vladimir Putin has laid down conditions if talks were to resume. He wants all the parties, particularly Ukraine, “to agree on a number of points” within two days before the planned meeting, effectively leaving very little space for maneuvering. With both Russia and Ukraine reluctant to budge from their stated positions, it is unlikely that talks, if held, would lead to any permanent solution. The decision to meet again came after the four leaders held an extensive telephone conference.
Though no detailed proposals of the peace plan were made available, it is likely to be an extension of the failed deal which was signed in Minsk last September. European leaders are skeptical of the efforts of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Holland who are on a diplomatic overdrive to prevent escalation of the conflict which threatens to spill into a full-scale war. With western sanctions failing to act as deterrent, US President Barack Obama is under tremendous pressure back home and from NATO to act more resolutely. NATO military commander U. S. General Philip Breedlove’s comments that the West should use “all the tools in the tool bag” have created a flutter as several European leaders are fiercely opposed to sending weaponry to Ukraine.
The proposed move to arm Ukraine’s military has also exposed a rift between the US and its European allies who are of the opinion that such a move would not only be counter-productive but lead to escalation of the conflict. Chancellor Merkel’s comments that sending arms to help Ukraine fight pro-Russian rebels would not solve the crisis at a security conference in Munich led to heated exchanges with some US politicians even accusing her of turning her back on an ally in distress.
The relations between Russia and the West have reached to a post-Cold War low with western countries accusing President Putin of arming and funding pro-Russian rebels who have launched a major offensive in January this year after the collapse of a five-month-old ceasefire. Moscow denies West’s charges. The rebels have made major advances in Ukraine since then holding on to large swathes of territory in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv. A further build-up of Russian troops on the shared border in April sparked concern in the West of another annexation after Russia seized Crimea last year. It remains to be seen whether pro-Russian rebels agree to give up the new territories that they gained for an effective ceasefire to take place, a major demand of the West.
If Wednesday’s talks don’t lead to a temporary truce, EU leaders are considering fresh financial sanctions against Russia next week which will further exacerbate the already worsening situation. If that were to happen, then Russian President may well challenge it by moving his troops to the borders of Ukraine. Nobody expects Mr. Putin to back off so easily. He has already made his intentions clear that he could consider reviving the Minsk agreement but with different ceasefire lines that recognised the territorial gains made by rebels in eastern Ukraine, a major bone of contention between Russia and the West. Ukraine and the West insist that any new ceasefire agreement should be based on the frontlines Russia agreed to in a truce brokered in Minsk last September. The Minsk peace plan called for a ceasefire as part of a 12-point blueprint for peace. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko insists that deal with Moscow could work only if all the 12 elements of the Minsk agreement were respected.
Analysts see very little hope of any breakthrough as there really is no new peace plan on offer. The one that is being talked about is nothing but a revamp of the old one that was never implemented. Until and unless the warring parties agree to the original agreement, there does not seem any possibility of a lasting and peaceful solution to the crisis. What is more frightening is that if diplomacy fails and President Obama goes ahead with arming Ukraine, it will provoke Russia to respond in a more aggressive manner. Also it will divide NATO. It is a no-win situation for everybody – be it the US, Russia, Ukraine or NATO. One can only hope that Wednesday’s talks finally lead to peace in eastern Ukraine. If diplomacy fails again, a proxy war may very well be on the cards. (ENDS)
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