BITTER FOES TURN FRIENDS TO FORM GOVT IN KASHMIR

BITTER FOES TURN FRIENDS TO FORM GOVT IN KASHMIR

BY VIKAS KHANNA

Politics makes strange bedfellows!

Just two months back, they were at each other’s throats, hurling innuendos, running each other down in the full public glare.

But all that is buried now as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has entered into an unholy alliance with Kashmir’s regional People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to form what is being touted as a stable government. It remains to be seen how the two political parties with very little in common will be able to provide a clean, efficient and stable government. Modi himself had launched a vitriolic attack on the PDP leadership accusing the “Baap-Beti” government of presiding over corruption during its previous rule.  PDP, too, had replied back in the same tone spewing venom. But in its bid to expand base in the Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP seems to have no qualms to shake hands with its opponents. Otto von Bismarck had rightly said that politics is the art of the possible.

Moreover, both the parties don’t see eye to eye on several contentious issues, including Article 370 which gives special powers to the Jammu and Kashmir government and Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA). The BJP, which had made its campaign centre around the scrapping of the Article 370, would have to beat a hasty retreat as there is no way PDP or for that matter any Kashmir-based party, in this case, National Conference (NC), would ever agree to it. The survival and future of these two regional parties hinges on Article 370 and any tempering with this special statute would alienate them with the masses. It is an article of faith for them.

As far as AFSPA is concerned, the two parties can reach some sort of agreement. Partial withdrawal of the Act from some of the areas in Kashmir, where no militant incident has happened for the last few years, can be implemented. In fact, the former chief minister Omar Abdullah too favoured revocation of the act, but faced stiff resistance from the army. The army has genuine fears that anti-national forces may try to revive militancy in the areas if they vacate. While militancy has largely been contained in the state with almost all the local groups neutralized, it is the Pakistan-based militant outfits which continue to make their presence felt by launching incessant attacks to keep the fire of militancy burning. The success achieved through years of painstaking efforts can just not be allowed to be wasted. Nothing should be done to compromise national interests.

PDP’s another major demand for resumption of immediate talks with Pakistan and separatist leaders can again partially be met with Modi government making renewed push to revive the stalled talks with Pakistan. The newly appointed foreign secretary S. Jaishankar has been tasked to undertake visits to SAARC nations as part of Modi government’s neighbourhood diplomacy. But it is the talks with the splintered Hurriyat groups which are not going to happen anytime soon. For, New Delhi continues to see them as proxy of Pakistani leadership.  In any case, they have lost their significance over the years. The success of successive state elections is a telling commentary of the gradual decline of the separatist groups whose election boycott calls have been met with derision.

The formation of the coalition government, however, spells good news for the state where governance has suffered since elections threw a hung assembly. The PDP patriarch Mufti Mohammed Sayeed is all set to be new chief minister for a full six-year term. It will be incumbent on both the political parties to provide good governance otherwise both stand to lose credibility when elections happen next. For, the staunchest supporters of both the parties have still not digested the marriage of convenience. The cadres of both the parties will find it difficult to convince the voters about the strange union if they failed to deliver on the promises.

UKRAINE CEASEFIRE IS A LULL

UKRAINE CEASEFIRE IS A LULL

BY VIKAS KHANNA

Diplomatic efforts by Germany and France to stave-off spiraling crisis in eastern Ukraine have paved way for a ceasefire, but nobody is sure how long this truce will last. The ceasefire, agreed to by Russia and Ukraine after a prolonged 16-hour of talks nudged by Germany and France in Belarus’ capital Minsk, is a lull and is not a guarantee for a secure future. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s comments after the meeting that there is now a “glimmer of hope” but big hurdles remain speak volumes about the fragility of the truce. If the Minsk ceasefire collapsed last September, what is the guarantee that it would succeed this time? How different is the present deal from the ceasefire agreed to in September? In a nutshell, the crisis has been averted and not resolved.

The deal, which comes into effect from this Sunday, proposes a ceasefire between government forces of Ukraine and rebels, resulting in withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the frontline. The two sides also agreed to constitutional reforms which would ensure greater autonomy in eastern Ukraine. 

The new ceasefire line that has been agreed to by Russia, Ukraine and rebels is the same as the old one. Pro-Russian rebels will lose some of the territory that they gained recently. So will the government forces.  Not only will they have to withdraw from the current front line, they will have to let go of the territory that they lost since January. The key sticking points remain unresolved. What about the status of Debaltseve, a government-held town encircled by the rebels, and which was the epicenter of renewed violence. Nineteen soldiers were killed in a deadly attack by rebels this week.  It has been proposed that further talks will be held on self-rule in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk held by rebels. Ukraine will get its eastern border back only if elections are held in Donetsk and Luhansk. But what is the guarantee that the rebels will accept the verdict as elections are to be held under Ukrainian law?

It is a deal, which can go wrong, as has happened in the past.  

Germany and France should be commended for their week-long diplomatic efforts for helping seal the agreement.  European leaders were skeptical of the efforts of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Holland wanting to prevent escalation of the conflict which threatened to blow into a full-scale war. Clashes between government forces and rebels have left more than 5,350 killed and over 12,000 wounded in eastern Ukraine.

The deal also offers relief to US President Barack Obama, who was under tremendous pressure back home and from NATO to act more resolutely after western sanctions failed to act as  deterrent.  NATO military commander U. S. General Philip Breedlove’s comments last week that the West should use “all the tools in the tool bag” had created a flutter as several European leaders were opposed to sending heavy weaponry to Ukraine.

The proposed move to arm Ukraine’s military had also exposed a rift between the US and its European allies who were of the opinion that such a move would not only be counter-productive but lead to escalation of the conflict.

The truce is also a major relief for President Vladimir Putin, who, otherwise, faced major sanctions later this week had the talks failed.  Russian economy is in the crosshairs. Russian GDP is expected to contract by around four percent this year, making it the worst economy of the big four emerging markets. The western sanctions coupled with plunging oil prices have weakened the ruble, pushing up the rate of inflation. The Russian currency has fallen around 46 percent against the dollar in the last six months.

The relations between Russia and the West have reached to a post-Cold War low with western countries accusing President Putin of arming and funding pro-Russian rebels who have launched a major offensive in January this year.  Moscow denies West’s charges. The rebels have made major advances in Ukraine since then holding on to large swathes of territory in Donetsk and Luhansk. A further build-up of Russian troops on the shared border in April sparked concern in the West of another annexation after Russia seized Crimea last year.  

The chances of a breakthrough depend largely on a durable ceasefire. And that is possible if Russia and the West succeed in bridging the trust deficit. As finer points emerge from the meeting, it appears that the intention was not to find a permanent solution to the crisis but to see that the situation does not escalate further.  The end result of the four-party meeting is nothing but a messy status-quo. 

One would recall that exactly 100 years ago, events in Eastern Europe triggered the First World War. None at that time thought that crisis would lead to war. A century later, the focus is again on Eastern Europe, the site of a regional conflict that threatens to entangle the world’s leading powers. As the world is observing the hundred years of the First World War, it is incumbent upon everybody to see that history does not get repeated. (ENDS)

KEJRIWAL STOPS MODI JUGGERNAUT

KEJRIWAL STOPS MODI JUGGERNAUT

BY VIKAS KHANNA

NEW DELHI, FEBRUARY 10 :  What a victory! This diminutive former bureaucrat stands tallest among the past and present leaders of Delhi for scripting such an astonishing victory. This would surely go down in the annals of history as unparalleled as no leader before him had tasted such majestic success. Previously, the Congress under Sheila Dikshit had recorded its biggest ever victory by bagging 52 of 70 seats when it had trounced BJP in 1998.  But today’s victory is historic as AAP blew away all by bagging all but three seats.

None expected that Arvind Kejriwal, who had lost his face by resigning abruptly within 49 days of his rule last year plunging Delhi into political uncertainty, would recover ground so soon to sweep the polls, dealing a major blow to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

How can such a phenomenon be interpreted? Was it a vote against BJP or Modi or both?

BJP will need a lot of explaining to do as it had sought votes in the name of Modi before importing former top cop and social activist, Kiran Bedi, frightened by the spiraling popularity of Kejriwal. BJP used everything under its bag --- Modi, money and machinery --- to stop Kejriwal in his tracks. Alas, it did not happen.

Nothing worked for the BJP. In fact, the writing on the wall was loud and clear. But the BJP failed to read the message. It kept on committing mistakes after mistakes. While Kejriwal succeeded in striking chord with people by raising issues concerning them and promising solution, BJP resorted to negative campaigning. Leaders after leaders, including Modi, tried to run down Kejriwal, some even calling him names which did not go down well with the masses, including hardcore BJP supporters. The BJP did the same what the Congress did in the Lok Sabha elections targeting Modi and paid the price.

The decision to delay elections also cost the party. Riding on the success of Lok Sabha elections, the party could have encashed on it by holding elections in Delhi immediately. But it shied away from taking a shot? The unnecessary delay gave AAP enough time to regroup and win back support of the cross sections of people.

BJP also erred in imposing Kiran Bedi on its cadres within four days of her joining the saffron party. That dampened the spirits of several top leaders and their supporters who had been slogging for years in Delhi. The BJP started losing ground since then. What many thought was a masterstroke by BJP, in fact, backfired. Not only did Bedi fail to enthuse party workers, she could not even win her seat from Krishna Nagar, considered to be one of the most safest constituencies nurtured by Dr. Harsh Vardhan. She was trounced by a little known lawyer S. K. Bagga. That sums up the story.

BJP also did no good to itself by delaying the names of candidates adding to confusion only. Several party candidates had to jostle at the last moment to file their papers leaving very little time to them for campaigning. By then AAP had already positioned itself by holding rallies, conducting road shows and reaching out to people through door-to-door campaigning. In fact, AAP was several notches ahead even before the start of the race. 

An over-confident and largely complacent BJP thought that Modi magic would do wonders again as had happened in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and Kashmir. But as campaign progressed, Modi and his team realized all was not well forcing them to open money bags and spending crores of rupees on advertisements seeking votes in the name of Modi. But they failed to breach the Kejri (wall).

The elections are also a warning against partisan politics of Hindu hardliners in BJP. It is high time the BJP realizes that elections can’t be fought and won over petty and communal lines. Modi would do well to rein in fringe elements in his party, who are strong believers of divisive politics. Today’s youth aspires for a strong and developed India. Development and inclusive growth should be the mantra of the BJP if it aims to do well in future.  (ENDS)

UKRAINE CRISIS: ANOTHER SUMMIT MEET TO BREAK LOGJAM

Today at 6:40 AM

BY VIKAS KHANNA

 

 

In a major diplomatic push, leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France decided to meet again in Belarus’s capital Minsk this Wednesday to discuss a durable peace plan for eastern Ukraine, where clashes between government forces and pro-Russian rebels have left more than 5,350 killed and over 12,000 wounded. An air of uncertainty shrouds talks as President Vladimir Putin has laid down conditions if talks were to resume. He wants all the parties, particularly Ukraine, “to agree on a number of points” within two days before the planned meeting, effectively leaving very little space for maneuvering. With both Russia and Ukraine reluctant to budge from their stated positions, it is unlikely that talks, if held, would lead to any permanent solution. The decision to meet again came after the four leaders held an extensive telephone conference. 

Though no detailed proposals of the peace plan were made available, it is likely to be an extension of the failed deal which was signed in Minsk last September. European leaders are skeptical of the efforts of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Holland who are on a diplomatic overdrive to prevent escalation of the conflict which threatens to spill into a full-scale war. With western sanctions failing to act as deterrent, US President Barack Obama is under tremendous pressure back home and from NATO to act more resolutely.  NATO military commander U. S. General Philip Breedlove’s comments that the West should use “all the tools in the tool bag” have created a flutter as several European leaders are fiercely opposed to sending weaponry to Ukraine.

The proposed move to arm Ukraine’s military has also exposed a rift between the US and its European allies who are of the opinion that such a move would not only be counter-productive but lead to escalation of the conflict. Chancellor Merkel’s comments that sending arms to help Ukraine fight pro-Russian rebels would not solve the crisis at a security conference in Munich led to heated exchanges with some US politicians even accusing her of turning her back on an ally in distress.

The relations between Russia and the West have reached to a post-Cold War low with western countries accusing President Putin of arming and funding pro-Russian rebels who have launched a major offensive in January this year after the collapse of a five-month-old ceasefire. Moscow denies West’s charges. The rebels have made major advances in Ukraine since then holding on to large swathes of territory in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv. A further build-up of Russian troops on the shared border in April sparked concern in the West of another annexation after Russia seized Crimea last year. It remains to be seen whether pro-Russian rebels agree to give up the new territories that they gained for an effective ceasefire to take place, a major demand of the West. 

If Wednesday’s talks don’t lead to a temporary truce, EU leaders are considering fresh financial sanctions against Russia next week which will further exacerbate the already worsening situation.  If that were to happen, then Russian President may well challenge it by moving his troops to the borders of Ukraine. Nobody expects Mr. Putin to back off so easily.  He has already made his intentions clear that he could consider reviving the Minsk agreement but with different ceasefire lines that recognised the territorial gains made by rebels in eastern Ukraine, a major bone of contention between Russia and the West. Ukraine and the West insist that any new ceasefire agreement should be based on the frontlines Russia agreed to in a truce brokered in Minsk last September. The Minsk peace plan called for a ceasefire as part of a 12-point blueprint for peace. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko insists that deal with Moscow could work only if all the 12 elements of the Minsk agreement were respected.

Analysts see very little hope of any breakthrough as there really is no new peace plan on offer. The one that is being talked about is nothing but a revamp of the old one that was never implemented. Until and unless the warring parties agree to the original agreement, there does not seem any possibility of a lasting and peaceful solution to the crisis. What is more frightening is that if diplomacy fails and President Obama goes ahead with arming Ukraine, it will provoke Russia to respond in a more aggressive manner. Also it will divide NATO. It is a no-win situation for everybody – be it the US, Russia, Ukraine or NATO. One can only hope that Wednesday’s talks finally lead to peace in eastern Ukraine. If diplomacy fails again, a proxy war may very well be on the cards. (ENDS)

 

BY VIKAS KHANNA



NEW DELHI, FEBRUARY 06 : With poll surveys predicting two different sets of outcomes, an air of uncertainty looms large as people vote tomorrow to elect a new government in Delhi within 14 months. Since AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal pulled the plug on his government within 49 days of rule last year, the national capital has suffered the most with practically no development activity taking place. It does not bode well for Delhi aiming to become a world class city.
Never before Delhi witnessed such hysterical campaigns as this time as opponents launched no-holds-barred attacks against each other, often hitting their rivals below the belt. The choice of words used by some political leaders against their rivals was in poor taste, to say the least. In their bid to outdo each other, candidates often raised personal issues of their rivals, at the cost of the pressing issues facing Delhi. The gradual downfall of public discourses, often crossing the “Laxman  Rekha” speaks volumes about the falling standards of democracy in the country.

Also perhaps for the first time, Delhi witnessed the brazen display of money used during campaigning. Over the years, the campaigning has undergone a sea change. Street-corner meetings have been replaced with huge public rallies, often importing people from nearby areas to give an impression of the wide support the party enjoys. The numbers never reflect the reality as several of them have often been found of switching sides on the polling day. The use of multi-cam set-ups to give a bird’s eye view of the rallies and providing free feed to news channels is something a very innovative but also an expensive idea. One can very well imagine the kind of money required to organize such rallies. No doubt, political parties have come of age!


The money could have been better utilized as Delhi cries for basic needs. Hundreds of thousands of people continue to live in inhuman conditions. Even after more than 67 years of independence, poor people are forced to sleep in the open during harsh winters, often losing their battle against life. Several areas where high-rise buildings have come up to give a look of an aspiring Delhi have no pipe water supply and bank on poorly-maintained tankers. Violent clashes over water during harsh summers, sometimes resulting in deaths, do not speak well for the national capital.  And not to be forgotten is the shortage of road space as thousands of new vehicles pile on roads every day. The road rage has become synonymous with Delhi. The issues are many and endless. Women no longer feel safe stepping out in the night. Crimes against women ring alarm bells. Should we be proud of these “achievements”? But who will give a thought to it?  


It is easier to blame political parties. But are they only to be blamed? Do the citizens have no role? The new elections have been thrust upon Delhi not by political parties but by the people themselves. The hung legislature does no good to anybody as political parties are forced to resort to corrupt practices for the survival and longevity of the government. If political parties or groups come together to run a government with no common political ideology, it smacks of political opportunism, often at the cost of welfare of the society. Voters would do a great disservice to Delhi and the nation if they repeat the mistake of 2013 creating a situation where no political party could form the government on its own. For, Delhi or for that matter India can ill-afford to have political uncertainty in the capital.