PAKISTAN GOING THE TALIBAN WAY!

Courtesy: thepolicytimes.com

With a Pakistani court giving legitimacy to the Milli Muslim League (MML) party formed by the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), whose founder is notorious $10m bounty global terrorist Hafiz Saeed, and allowing it to contest national elections, Talibanisation of Pakistan looks imminent. JuD, a front of the banned militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), is blamed for the 2008 attacks in Mumbai that killed 166 people. The ruling of two different courts in as many days in favour of Saeed is perplexing, to say the least. In the first instance, Lahore High Court extended its stay against the possible arrest of Saeed. The next day came another shocker. Islamabad High Court annulled the October 2017 decision of the Election Commission of Pakistan not to register MML following objections from the interior ministry.

Until now, the judiciary seemed to be independent in a country where all the important pillars of democracy have almost collapsed. The twin decisions by Pakistani courts could prove to be the final nail in the coffin. In effect, Pakistani judiciary has found flaws in the orders of the United Nations and United States Department of the Treasury which had designated Saeed as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist. So we are staring at a scenario when a global terrorist would enter the National Assembly as a lawmaker and who knows could well become the prime minister of Pakistan. Pakistan deserves it as its romanticism with the Taliban and other militant groups is so profound that it is even willing to sour ties with its erstwhile ally, the United States, and risk global isolation. 

So we are staring at a scenario when a global terrorist would enter the National Assembly as a lawmaker and who knows could well become the prime minister of Pakistan.  

It should be recalled that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the only countries to recognize the Taliban when it formed its government in Afghanistan in 1996 by displacing the then Burhanuddin Rabbani government. The United Nations refused to recognize the Taliban government. The entire world except these three wretched countries disproved of the Taliban government. Pakistan has the history of not conforming to world order and siding with the rogue elements.

The implications of the Pakistani courts’ rulings are very worrisome. In recent years, Saeed’s popularity has soared in Pakistan where political leaders are losing currency because of their involvement in corruption. Saeed has been steadily making inroads into rural pockets of the country through his seminaries. He became the darling of the masses when his seminaries provided financial and medical assistance in the wake of the devastating earthquake in Kashmir in 2005. Reportedly, he has a network of 300 seminaries spread across the country and runs several schools, hospitals and ambulance services. The public adulation of Saeed was in full display when he was showered with flower petals upon his release from house arrest last year.

 

Courtesy: aljazeera.com

MML may prove to be a disruptive force in the upcoming elections. In a by-election in the Pakistan parliamentary constituency of NA-120 in September last year, the MML-backed candidate had secured the fourth position with 5,822 votes, double than that of the main opposition Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Jamaat-i-Islami combined. The seat had fallen vacant when the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had to resign, following his disqualification by Pakistan's Supreme Court. Sharif’s wife Kulsoom Nawaz Sharif won the seat comfortably.

Though Pakistan’s parties may be aghast at the prospect of MML making political entry, one thing is for sure that the latter and Saeed have huge backing of the Pakistani army and the Inter-Services Intelligence which are the de-facto government. These two agencies have trained the Taliban fighters and other militant groups in the past and continue to do so. There does seem to be an agenda of Pakistani army to create a new radicalized political force to further its own dirty interests. And if that happens, where will Pakistan be heading to? Any guesses!

AFGHANISTAN WANTS PEACE WITH TALIBAN BUT WILL IT COME?

The three principal characters in Afghanistan theatre – the government, Taliban and the United States – are in favour of talks to end the more than 16-year-old bloody war. But so deep runs the suspicion that the dominant parties do not want to enter into a direct dialogue. The Taliban is ready to talk to the United States but is opposed to dialogue with President Ashraf Ghani government. The US, on the other hand, does not want direct talks with the Taliban. It wants the Taliban to hold talks with the “legitimate” Afghanistan government. President Ghani has once again reiterated his government’s desire to hold talks with Taliban, but the militant organisation is not amused. So, where does that lead to?

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The US, which has renewed its offensive on the Taliban in recent months after President Donald Trump committed to an open-ended conflict in Afghanistan in August last year, would not like to be seen as surrendering and admitting defeat if it were to hold talks with the Taliban. In a marked departure from his call during presidential electioneering for an early US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Trump has sent more troops in recent months as he vowed “a fight to win” when he unveiled his administration’s strategy for the war-torn country. President Trump stands to invite ridicule if his administration jumps the gun and enters into a direct dialogue with the Taliban at this stage. Therefore, the US wants Afghanistan to do the bidding on its behalf. 

President Ghani knows too well that the US forces would not be there forever as there is increasing pressure from the families of the American soldiers and the people to make an early exit from Afghanistan. Since 2001, when the Taliban were dislodged from power, the Afghan war has cost 2,400 American lives and $1 trillion. Ghani has gone on record admitting that the Afghan National Army will not last more than six months if the US were to withdraw its forces. He even feared the collapse of the government. Aware of this danger, President Ghani is desperate to start negotiations with the Taliban. By offering to recognise the Taliban as a legitimate political group, proposing a ceasefire and release of prisoners and holding “unconditional” talks, shows his desperation.

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The Taliban, which is facing an onslaught from the US forces, wants an early ceasefire to have a much-needed breather. Since last year, it has lost several of its top commanders besides a large number of foot soldiers. It smells twin advantages if talks with the US became a reality. Not only will it escape the intensified fury, it will put the US on the back foot. For the Taliban, it will be a win-win solution as it will enter into dialogue with an upper hand. If the dialogue reaches its logical conclusion, it stands a chance to be accepted as a political group and who knows return to power. But if talks collapse, it will have enough time to recoup and recalibrate its strategy. Moreover, the Taliban does not consider Ghani government as a powerful adversary which it can easily run over in the event of US troop withdrawal.

It remains to be seen if all the major parties are prepared to shift their stance. And even if they do, the chances of an early solution look unlikely as long as Pakistan does not relinquish its support to groups like the Haqqani network.

(The article first appeared on Wionnews.com)