WILL KP OLI BE ABLE TO HUMOUR BOTH INDIA AND CHINA?

nepal24hours.com

As India and China vigorously jostle for influence in the tiny Himalayan nation, Nepal’s new Prime Minister KP Oli has a hard task at hand to do a balancing act. But his early days as prime minister indicate a tectonic shift towards China. Even during elections, he maintained an aggressive pro-China line so as to reduce dependence on India. He used nationalism as a major election plank, which many believe went down well with the masses who voted the left alliance to a comfortable majority, causing discomfiture in the Indian establishment. This was wary of the return of the communist regime. In fact, there are reports that China played a crucial role in ensuring the victory of the left alliance in the elections.

In keeping with his words during electioneering, Oli has dropped enough hints of his government’s pro-China tilt. In an interview to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post, he was more forthcoming when he said that he wanted to “deepen” ties with China and get more leverage in his dealings with India “in keeping with the times”.  The statement will certainly not please the Indian establishment which had sent its foreign minister Sushma Swaraj immediately after the election results to mend ways with the new government.

The crafty Oli seems to have made a well-thought-out statement to drive a hard bargain with India. The election manifesto of the left alliance speaks volumes about the intent of the new government. It says that the India-Nepal Peace and Friendship Treaty 1950 will be scrapped and a new treaty will be negotiated.  The two countries are deadlocked over the issue for several years whether to amend the treaty or replace it completely. 

The ties between India and Nepal deteriorated during Oli’s first stint as prime minister when he blamed India for the unofficial economic blockade which stopped essential goods from entering Nepal from India, a charge New Delhi denied.  An angry Oli then signed a trade and transit agreement with China with an aim to end India’s monopoly over Nepal’s supply of daily essentials which further created bitterness between the two countries. Oli was also miffed with India’s diplomatic intervention in the country’s constitutional process in 2015 when New Delhi sought to accommodate demands of the Madhesis who launched a violent struggle to have greater say in the federal system. He often blamed New Delhi for the circumstances which led to his resignation following the political crisis over the Madhesi issue.

Therefore, there is no element of surprise as Oli plays the China card shrewdly.  "We have great connectivity with India and an open border. All that's fine and we'll increase connectivity even further, but we can’t forget that we have two neighbours. We don't want to depend on one country or have one option," he said in the same interview. It should be recalled that Oli in his previous avatar as prime minister had inked a deal with China to extend Tibet rail network to Kathmandu and created special economic zones for Chinese firms, infuriating India.

Oli should realize that he can’t afford to keep all his eggs in one basket. He will need to be pragmatic to balance both India and China.  India is still Nepal’s biggest trade partner. In fact, the two-thirds of Nepal’s trade remains with India and the Himalayan nation is heavily dependent on the latter for its everyday needs. Therefore when asked how he wanted to work out relations with India, Oli said:  "We've always had excellent relations with India. There were some elements in the Indian establishment that caused some misunderstanding, but Indian leaders have assured us that there will be no interference in the future and we will respect each other's sovereign rights”.  There is no doubt that he is still smarting from his unceremonious ouster and yet to reconcile.

Oli is aware that both India and China want to expand their influence in the region and he would like to use this to his country’s advantage. The only difference is while India has always considered Nepal as a natural ally based on the close historical ties, China is ensnaring the region by dolling out lollipops to the world’s one of the most impoverished countries by building roads, and trade and transit corridors. But Oli would do well to be careful and understand China’s designs. In the past, several countries like the Maldives and Sri Lanka cosied up to China eyeing massive investments but ended up into a debt-trap.

Both India and Nepal need to reconcile and a make a fresh rapprochement to iron out their differences and bring the ailing relations back on track. Given the historic and cultural ties, the two countries can’t afford to be like oil and water.