WINTER SESSION TO CATCH COLD AS GOVT-OPPOSITION CHILL CONTINUES

The winter session of parliament beginning tomorrow in all probability is likely to run into rough weather as a

country-wide storm is brewing over rising incidents of religious intolerance. The two back-to-back defeats for the ruling party have infused life in the otherwise moribund opposition following last year’s general elections. The Bihar verdict has further invigorated the already charged up opposition parties. A lot is at stake for Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has been gung-ho about the roll-out of the goods and services tax (GST) Bill next fiscal year during his interactions with his foreign audiences. Back home, will Modi be ready to bend and break bread with the Opposition in getting the bill passed, seen as a crucial test for his government’s commitment to unleash the second wave of economic reforms?

A resurgent opposition has decided to put the government on the mat over religious intolerance which is periodically finding space in foreign press also soon after the parting shot of Mr Modi’s “friend” Barack (Obama) during his visit this January when he warned India not to stray from its constitutional commitment to allow people to freely "profess, practice and propagate" religion. And President Obama followed this up after few days by saying Mahatma Gandhi would have been shocked at the acts of intolerance in the country famed for its diversity when he addressed the annual National Prayer Breakfast meeting.

A report by rating agency Moody’s also pilloried the government over growing intolerance in the country as it cautioned Prime Minister Modi that he risked losing his “domestic and global credibility” if BJP controversialists were not reined in.

An annual report of US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) has also been scathing and censured India for “religious intolerance against Christians and Muslims by right-wing Hindu groups since 2014 elections.” It has also put India again in the Tie II group of 10 countries under its watch list, which is a tad lower than Tier I watch list of countries like Myanmar, Pakistan, Sudan, Iraq etc.

A section of intelligentsia and so-called “pseudo secularists” in the country have been flagging their concerns on the issue, with some returning their Sahitya Akademi awards. They have been joined in their protest by eminent personalities from different fields, but, sadly, the government has been cold to their concerns. The inane remarks from some ministers and senior members of the BJP have only fuelled the fire with the top leadership of the party found wanting in reining in fringe elements.

With both the government and the Opposition trading barbs tediously for months together, one hopes the winter session of parliament does not go the same way as the last monsoon session which was a near wash-out. In the last monsoon session, only eight bills were introduced. The government had listed only 11 bills for consideration and passing during the then session. However, only one bill – Delhi High Court (Amendment) Bill, 2014, was passed by the Lok Sabha which had got the nod of the Rajya Sabha in the previous session. The session witnessed the lowest number of bills being passed since the Winter Session 2010. If the productivity of Lok Sabha was 48 percent, it was a shameful 9 percent in the Rajya Sabha.

It is heartening to note that two senior ministers – Arun Jaitley and Venkaiah Naidu – have tried to reach out to the Opposition in recent days to seek its support for key economic reforms. The country will be indebted to parliament if both the government and the Opposition break the logjam and do for what they have been chosen by the people of the country.

Billed as the biggest reform in India since independence in 1947, the GST can add up to 2 percentage points to the growth of Asia’s third largest economy. The bill, pending nod from the Rajya Sabha, can give a necessary fillip as far as trade is concerned. Equally important will be the role of the Congress party, which itself had mooted the bill. Setting aside political differences, all the parties should sit together and find ways to pass the bill in the interests of the nation.  The world is eyeing this legislation. For, it will signal to the global community and investors that India is serious on economic reforms.  

But for that to happen, bitter acrimony between the government and opposition forces should end. The government will have to take the first step as it is its duty to ensure the smooth functioning of parliament. While the BJP has comfortable majority in Lok Sabha, it needs the support of the opposition Elders in the passage of key legislations. The Bihar fiasco has put paid to the ambitions of the BJP which was eyeing to increase its numbers in Rajya Sabha in the coming years. Therefore, the BJP and its allies will do well to bring down the political temperature by a few notches and strike a conciliatory deal with the Opposition if they want to implement their agenda of good governance and next generation of reforms.

AN UNEASY TIARA RESTS ON NITISH KUMAR’S HEAD

A huge responsibility lies on the shoulders of Nitish Kumar, who took oath as chief minister of Bihar, for the third straight term. With initial euphoria of crushing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over, Kumar will be charting into a new territory as he is going to share power with his bitter rival-turned-friend Lalu Prasad Yadav, who in his past avatar was seen as the fountain head of mass corruption. That Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has emerged as the single largest party in the state assembly is going to weigh heavily on the new chief minister. And it has been reflected at the swearing-in function. Kumar was forced to induct both sons of Lalu in his cabinet, with one being made his deputy. But one hopes Nitish does not get bogged down and continues with his mission of providing not only a clean administration but taking one of the most backward states to new heights. The success of the government will depend largely on Lalu, who will do better not to meddle in the nitty-gritty of the day-to-day functioning of the government. The mandate of the just-concluded election is development, development, development.

There is no doubt that the people of the state see in Nitish a visionary who has set the ball rolling by improving the law and order situation considerably. Gone are the days when mafias used to call the shots and people would dread venturing out of their homes after dusk. Kidnapping had become an industry. A semblance of normalcy has been restored and the state has taken some baby steps to restore investors’ confidence. But there is a long way to go.

As per a Planning Commission report of 2012, Bihar remains the poorest state of the country. Odisha, which used to be the poorest state as per the previous data released in 2004-2005, is way better off than Bihar. The report says the percentage of people below the poverty line in Odisha has gone down from 57.2 percent in 2004-2005 to 37 percent in 2009-10, a remarkable feat. In contrast,  Bihar, helped by economic reforms carried out by Nitish Kumar government, witnessed marginal fall in the percentage of population below the poverty line. In the five years between 2004-2005 and 2009-2010, Bihar could uplift people below the poverty line by just one percentage. There were 53.5 percent people in Bihar who remained below the poverty line as per the last data. Of course, the figures would be quite different now since no current official data is available. But the figures suggest that the reforms have not yet percolated down the lowest strata of the society and reached the deserving.

Nitish will not only have to give maximum ministerial berths to RJD but will also have to accommodate the Congress. But in doing so, he will have to ensure that criminal elements are kept away from the government. Not only that, all the three stakeholders will have combined responsibility to see that the government meets the aspirations of the people. The outflux of Biharis to other states for lesser paying jobs needs to be stopped.  The government will need to create facilities as well as opportunities so that the educated and uneducated youth don’t have to leave their state. 

A huge mandate entails larger responsibility as people have high expectations. Better and accessible education, job opportunities and creation of a favourable environment to invite both domestic and foreign investment and better infrastructure and connectivity are some of the key issues that are expected of the government.

The state has fared poorly in a World Bank report on "ease of doing business in Indian states".

The report, which was released in September, has ranked Bihar at 21.The report has red flagged  red tape which continues to deter people from setting up establishments in the state. In fact, Modi had ridiculed the state of affairs in Bihar during his several election meetings. Ironically, Jharkhand, which was carved out of Bihar about a decade and a half ago, leapfrogged to third position. This demonstrates that all is not well and there is something perennial wrong in state policies.

One also hopes that the Modi government will display maturity and release promised funds. Victory and defeat are part and parcel of elections. Once the elections are over, it should be the duty of both the federal and state governments to join hands to work for the welfare of people. The country will develop only if Bihar develops. 

WHEN WILL WEST’S ROMANTICISM WITH TERROR END?

A series of recent terror attacks, the latest being the coordinated Mumbai-style attacks in Paris, should serve as a warning to the global community that terrorists can’t be friends of anybody. India, which has been a victim of terrorism for decades, has been pleading for a global action, but its pleas have fallen on deaf ears. As long as the West was not hit, it did not feel the agonizing pain of terrorism. The 9/11 attacks on the United States shook Washington and its allies. But again, the world was found faltering in its response.

There are several countries whose obsession with terrorism refuses to die. They continue to flirt with terrorists to bleed their rivals. But they themselves do not realize that the monster of terrorism will also haunt them. In spite of taking severe hits from terrorists, threatening their own existence, the countries’ love affair with terrorism continues.

Who is to blame if terrorist organizations like the Taliban, al-Qaeda and Islamic State, to name a few, have flourished? Did the West not lend its support to the Wahhabis in the 1980s to drive away Russian forces from Afghanistan? Sadly, the US has not fully severed its ties with practitioners of the right-wing, ultra-conservative Wahhabism.

Had the US and its allies not supported the Mujahedeen, who fought a bitter battle with the Soviet forces as well as the left-tilted government in Kabul, the situation would not have come to such a sorry pass today? Afghan Arabs and foreign fighters, who waged jihad against the atheist communists in Afghanistan, were encouraged and financed by the West and its allies. According to archives of the US Department of State, “Notable among them was a young Saudi named Osama bin Laden, whose Arab group eventually evolved into al-Qaeda.”

The US courted Pakistan’s military dictator, General Zia-ul-Haq. Billions of dollars were spent on recruiting and training Mujahedeen fighters and foreign mercenaries from other Islamic countries to create a formidable force which eventually succeeded in forcing Soviet forces to leave Afghanistan. The Soviets might have left wounded and defeated, but did the US gain anything? Now it has been at war with the same terrorist groups which it propped up. The Russian war has become the US war now. Already the US has lost 2,300 of its men. And it has cost the US approximately 110 billion dollars since its forces first landed in Afghanistan in October 2001. And nobody knows where the situation is headed to?  Desperate to pull out of Afghanistan, it is exploring the option of peace talks with Taliban and other terrorist groups with the democratically-elected government of Afghanistan. Is it not an admission of defeat?

In a blatant display of double standards, the US turned a blind eye to militants who were launching attacks on India from the soil of Pakistan. Pakistan, being its close ally in fighting its war in Afghanistan, on the other hand, was being showered with billions of dollars and military assistance.

It took multiple and well-coordinated attacks on the US to shake it from deep slumber to take note of Muslim militants enjoying Pakistan hospitality. But again, the US has been found dilly-dallying in its approach. It continues to praise Pakistan for its fight against terrorism while publicly nudging it to do more.

Afghanistan and the world will be much secure if militant sanctuaries in Pakistan are destroyed. The successive governments in Afghanistan have openly accused Pakistan of destabilising the country. Is the US not aware of it? But, what has been its response?

India has, for long, accused Pakistan of fomenting trouble, first in Punjab and then in Kashmir. Thousands of innocent people have died in myriad of attacks in India. The perpetrators of Mumbai attacks openly roam about and address rallies in Pakistan. But the world continues to pay lip service.

General Zia’s strategy to bleed India through a thousand cuts through proxy war will remain a pipe dream. But the very militants, whom Pakistan patronized, have made life hell for its own people. Pakistan refuses to learn lessons despite the ghastly Peshawar attack last year, in which 132 people, mostly children, were killed.

The rise of Islamic State, which has been behind all the recent attacks across the world, is a matter of serious concern. This year alone, it has carried out attacks in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Tunisia, Libya, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, Lebanon and now France.  ISIS is now seeking to extend its reach globally. In this week alone, an ISIS affiliate has claimed responsibility for the recent downing of a Russian plane over Egypt and a bombing in Lebanon in which at least 40 people were killed.

If the global community does not join hands against terrorism then it will be difficult to rein in ISIS as it has infiltrated into so many countries. There can’t be good militants or bad militants. Militants are militants whose only religion is destruction. I am reminded of words of Sir Peter Ustinov. “Terrorism is the war of the poor, war is the terrorism of the rich.” In both the situations, the outcome is same. 

LALU-NITISH CHEMISTRY FOILS MODI-SHAH ARITHMETIC

By Vikas Khanna

When enemies become friends, they become a formidable force. History is witness to it. The decision of Indira Gandhi to impose emergency forced opposition forces to join hands, leading to her humiliating defeat. This is one of many examples to prove a point. Therefore, when Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar decided to bury the hatchet to stop the juggernaut of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, they became a powerful combo. The decision of the Congress to join the bandwagon further consolidated the “maha gathbandhan”. The coalition of powerful Yadavs, Muslims and Kurmis which together accounted for about 35 percent of Bihar’s population alongwith the support of the Congress party was an invincible grouping.

Though the BJP and its constituents tried to run down the union of the two powerful foes, the coalition grew in strength as anti-grand alliance voices became shriller. Many had thought that Nitish had written his political obituary by colluding with Lalu, who had become an embodiment of corruption. Even analysts in Bihar said that Nitish had staked his clean reputation by compromising with Lalu. But the duo was sure about their turf. They knew that their support base was intact. 

Notwithstanding the massive defeat of Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Congress party in the 2014 parliamentary elections at the hands of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the three parties, who fought separately then, polled 45.3 percent of the total votes. The numbers were huge. The need was to preserve the respective support base and not let it disintegrate. And the three parties complemented each other perfectly. Not only did they win the support of their core group for themselves, they also ensured that their vote share got transferred to their alliance partners.

The negative campaigning by Modi only worked to the advantage of Grand Alliance. Modi committed a cardinal crime by ditching the development pitch which was resonating well with the masses in the beginning. Once Modi digressed from the development agenda, on which he had assiduously built his image, he started losing the plot. As Modi viciously targeted Lalu and Nitish personally, he only alienated the people of Bihar from himself. For, the attacks were seen as an affront to Bihar and Biharis. This only fuelled people’s anger which got reflected in the way they voted. It was an angry vote.

It is not as if the BJP was not pandering to lower castes besides it core constituents of upper caste Hindus and Vaishyas. It courted Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi in the hope of getting the support of Koeri and Dalits besides Paswans. But sadly all the three alliance partners failed to get the votes of their communities. Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party with a vote share of 4.8 percent, Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party’s 2.6 percent and Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha with 2.3 percent failed to contribute to the kitty of NDA as the three parties got only 5 seats out of 83 seats on which they contested. BJP too fared badly winning one third of the seats (53 out of 160) compared to its stupendous performance in the last assembly elections when it bagged 91 seats out of 102 on which it contested. But that was a different story. The BJP then had Nitish in its fold. In contrast, the communities represented by Nitish Kumar’s allies aggressively supported the candidates of Grand Alliance.

The BJP’s strategy not to project its chief ministerial candidate and depend entirely on the charisma of Modi also caused the NDA’s rout. The people of Bihar were non-plussed as to who would be their chief minister if the NDA won. The whirlwind campaigning by Modi, the first in the history of an Indian state election by any prime minister, only went against him. NDA lost 14 of the 26 seats where Modi addressed. In contrast, Congress party president Sonia Gandhi addressed only 4 constituencies and she secured victory for all her four candidates. Modi’s strike rate was 54 percent compared to 100 percent of Sonia. Interestingly, the Congress, which finished fourth, had a better performance than the BJP. The Congress won 27 seats out of 41on which it contested, whereas the BJP secured win in only 53 seats out of 160. In percentage terms, the Congress had a winning strike rate of 65.85 in comparison to BJP’s 33.13. What can one make out of it? The Modi magic is on the wane.

The so-called charisma of Modi was smashed to smithereens in the Delhi assembly elections when his party could secure just three out of the 70 seats. And it got battered further in Bihar. There is an old saying that one should not keep all its eggs in one basket. The BJP reposed faith in its only star campaigner in Modi. The result is before all to see. 

GIANT KILLER LALU PLOTS DOWNFALL OF MODI’S BJP

By Vikas Khanna

Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Lalu Prasad Yadav may be down, but he is certainly not out as he proved his political acumen once again. Lalu was jeered for entering into an alliance with long-time foe Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal (United) after the latter ended his honeymoon with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP. Many thought that Lalu would not only drown but would take Kumar alongwith him. Political pundits then called the JD(U)-RJD alliance a political hara-kiri. But Lalu has proved all of them wrong. Not only has the alliance bounced back to resounding victory, Lalu has emerged as the biggest winner, to the surprise of all. None had imagined that the BJP, which had run-away success in 2014 Lok Sabha elections when it alongwith its alliance partners bagged 31 of the 40 seats, would slip to third position. This is the second humiliating defeat in a row for the BJP after the rookie Aam Aadmi Party decimated the Hindu party in Delhi elections. Bihar election results prove that Lalu is an infallible politician.

The BJP troika of Modi, Amit Shah and Arun Jaitely, who supervised the minutest of the details of elections, has been left licking the wounds caused by the Grand Alliance. It will take months before the wounds will be healed. The party had pumped in money and flew down almost half of the cabinet colleagues of Modi to Bihar in a desperate bid to win the election. But the party managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of what once appeared a possible victory. The huge crowds that Modi was attracting during his two-plus rallies everyday gave a false sense of the party’s growing popularity. The BJP was completely outwitted! The people of Bihar came to his rallies, listened to him, but rebuffed him at the hustings in the end. They were not ready to compromise with Bihar’s DNA which was humiliated by none other than Modi himself.

The BJP was also undone by its parent ideologue, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), whose chief Mohan Bhagwat only helped in creating a sense of fear and insecurity among the people of the state over the issue of reservation. Though BJP was quick to deny his comment as not the official policy of the BJP and maintained that the party favoured reservation for the poor and the backwards, the damage had already been done. This was the constituency which Lalu and Nitish had meticulously nurtured over the years through the reservation policy. Modi’s calculations also went awry when he tried to create confusion among the downtrodden by remarking that Nitish was trying to rob them of five percent quota and giving it to a “particular community” referring to Muslims.

The BJP, perhaps, committed the biggest mistake when it changed the discourse of the election campaign, forfeiting the development plank on which it had pledged to fight the election. In fact, the party could have reaped rich political dividends had it stuck to its original agenda. That was working well with the masses, who thought that the same governments at the Centre and in Patna would bring about positive change and speed up development in the state.

Modi himself led from the front and launched an all-out personal attack against his rivals. Calling them by names and poking fun at them became Modi’s pet rhetoric during his 30-plus rallies in the last few days, again unprecedented for state elections. But his gimmicks backfired. Modi antagonized the voters as he went about scorning his rivals by heaping muck on them. In the end, he is left with egg on his face.

The issues of beef controversy and cow slaughter were non-issues and had nothing to do with Bihar elections. But the party thought it otherwise. In the past, the BJP had gained politically by polarizing the society. But it was grossly mistaken this time. Bihar is no Gujarat. Even when the chorus against the rising incidents of religious intolerance was growing louder, his colleagues and saffron-clad netas kept on spewing venom with Modi maintaining a mysteriously studied silence.

One hopes that the BJP will realize that the hate politics and communal agendas have no place in a country whose people want an environment of peace, necessary for the economic growth. The government has been facing flak from both within and outside the country over the recent incidents of religious intolerance. Modi will do well to rein in the fringe elements in his party if he is really interested in taking the country forward.

PS: This was the worst gift the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could have presented to veteran leader Lal Krishna Advani on his birthday.

SUU KYI FIGHTS AGAINST ALL ODDS AS MYANMAR VOTES

 By Vikas Khanna

Myanmar votes today in an election, hailed as the most fairest to date, but it is far from perfect. The quasi civilian government, which took over after the junta withdrew in 2011, has already rigged the election partially even before the vote. The junta has meticulously circumvented the constitution to its advantage. No matter what is the outcome of election, the military will continue to have 25 percent of seats in both houses of parliament.

If that is not enough, the powerful ministries like home, defence and border affairs will be reserved for men in uniform. Alarmed by the surging popularity of former political prisoner and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who was getting enthusiastic response during her election meetings, the ruling military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) effected a controversial change in the statute. The MPs recently struck down a proposal which could remove the military’s veto power on constitutional amendments. This raises a serious question whether the junta will allow Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party to bring about necessary constitutional amendments which could empower democracy and dilute the control of the military if it wins polls?

Suu Kyi, who is tipped to win the elections, has another major road block ahead. Prime Minister Thein Sein, a former general, and others have drafted the constitution in such a way that she will be denied the top post of President even if she wins polls. According to a controversial constitutional provision, those with foreign children are barred from the office of the country’s top post. Suu Kyi has two British sons from her late husband. This is likely to set up confrontation between Suu Kyi and the junta which has ruled the country with an iron fist so far.

Even the process of electing a president is very complex. The president is not elected directly by the people. The election of president will be delayed till February-March next year even though the votes will be counted within a week, leaving room for political maneuvering. The new MPs will vote to elect the head of the nation. Three candidates will vie for the top post with two appointed by the Hluttaw, the parliament, and one by the military. The candidate getting the maximum votes is elected President while the two others will become vice-presidents. Here again, the military has ensured a role for itself in managing the legislature.

The new government, which initiated the so-called political reforms to get the western sanctions lifted, made a mockery of democracy when it systematically disenfranchised 650,000 Rohingya Muslims. Muslims make up five percent of 55 million population of Buddhist-majority Myanmar. There are lakhs of Rohingya, who are settled in nine camps in western region of Myanmar bordering Thailand, leading to an unparalleled tide of despair. The Election Commission, which is slanted toward the ruling elite, also debarred dozens of Muslim candidates from contesting. A brazen attempt has been made to exclude Muslims from the election process.

In the last widely condemned elections in 2010, which was boycotted by Suu Kyi’s party, the government had allowed voting rights to the Rohingya, who had assured their support to the USDP. In fact, there are three Rohingya lawmakers in the present legislature. But this year, the Rohingya have been robbed of their voting rights, raising eyebrows about the fair election process. Rohingya continue to be treated as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, even though they have been living in Myanmar for centuries.

The present government is also accused of pandering to the majority Buddhists by passing four religion-based bills recently which are biased against Muslims. The laws make it difficult for citizens to convert to a different religion and propose stringent punishment for having more than a spouse. Human rights activists have expressed concern that the new laws, which discriminate against Muslims, could foment religious strife.

There was a sinister design in passing the bills in a hurry. Using its brute parliamentary majority, the government pushed through the laws hoping to win the support of the ultra nationalist Buddhist group Ma Ba Tha, which was pushing for four religious bills. Founded in 2013, the group is not contesting the election, but has been spearheading the campaign in support of the present dispensation. Ma Ba Tha, which has considerable influence in the rural areas, can cut into the votes of Suu Kyi’s party. Their influence can be gauged from the fact that even Suu Kyi has not fielded a single Muslim candidate, not to antagonise Ma Ba Tha. In recent years, religious violence has killed hundreds of people, mostly Muslims.

It’s a lose-lose election for the people of Myanmar as the election process is nothing but opaque and discriminatory. It is certainly not inclusive polls for which Suu Kyi struggled for decades and had to endure house arrest. The people of Myanmar can change their destiny if they vote decisively and overwhelmingly for Suu Kyi’s party. It is the biggest test for the country to embark on a genuine democracy.

JITTERY BJP FALLS BACK ON PAKISTAN TO WIN BIHAR

By Vikas Khanna

Has Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) admitted defeat in Bihar? Otherwise, what explains Modi's chief lieutenant and party president Amit Shah to comment that if the party loses the elections "by mistake ... crackers will be burst in Pakistan?" Or Shah has taken a leaf out of Modi's book! When he ruled Gujarat, Modi would often take the communal route to win elections. While political pundits used to be perplexed over the relevance of "Mian Musharraf" in state elections, Modi would prove them wrong every time. His anti-Pakistan rants grew shriller after the 2002 riots and paid him political dividends handsomely.  

One just fails to understand why would Pakistan rejoice at BJP’s defeat in Bihar? Pakistan’s delight at BJP’s rout in general elections can be digestible given its hardened posture against it. But that is not going to happen so soon. Therefore, linking Bihar election to the bursting of crackers in Pakistan sounds mischievous.

The remark certainly is not innocuous. A subtle attempt was made to create a divide. The message was loud and clear. By raking up Pakistan in the midst of electioneering, Shah, an astute politician, was not referring to our estranged neighbour, but minorities living in the country. Doubtless to say that the country’s minorities, particularly Muslims, have always been wary of the Hindu party! And BJP is not dumb to this fact. Since the beginning of the five-phase elections, fortunes of both the alliances --- Modi’s NDA and Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance --- have been fluctuating like a pendulum. The contest is proving to be too close to call with no clear favourite. Therefore, Shah has been shooting all the arrows from his quiver. A lot is at stake for Shah who has been camping in Bihar for more than two months, assiduously planning each and every detail of the election, from increasing party membership to poll booth management.  

Shah’s other recent comment that the state election result should not be seen as a “referendum” on the Modi government betrays a sense of unease within the party that all is not as well as it initially thought to be. The punch line “All is well” worked wonders for the Bollywood blockbuster, but Modi’s “Three Idiots” remark referring to the key players of the Grand Alliance might boomerang on his party. Nitish Kumar and his constituent partners have latched on to the statement, turning it to their advantage by projecting it as an insult to Bihar’s “asmita” (pride).

Modi is the face of the BJP in Bihar and he cannot escape censure in case the party suffers defeat. Never before has an election witnessed such campaign bombardment by the party’s poster boy Modi! The BJP has not projected its chief ministerial candidate, who could, otherwise, be made an escape goat in the event of the party failing to breach the Bihar citadel. The prime minister himself has been holding two to three rallies daily and his cabinet ministers have fanned out in all the districts of the state in their desperation to win. So, to say that Modi would not be held responsible if the party fared badly in Bihar is an attempt to insulate him from embarrassment. Will the BJP not fete him and ascribe success only to him if it wins the election?

In a growing sign of frustration, Modi and his henchmen have started resorting to personal attacks by digressing from principal issues. This does not bode well for the party. Modi’s campaign in Delhi elections last year backfired when he launched a personal tirade against Arvind Kejriwal by calling him AK-49, referring to his 49-day rule before he resigned abruptly. Modi had to bite the dust as his party was completely decimated in Delhi with the rookie party scripting a record victory by winning all but three of the 70 assembly seats. The Delhi election also saw the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) bringing to a halt the Modi juggernaut that had rolled over to victory in several states following the national elections. Personal attacks and character assassination have not always yielded political dividends.

Modi himself reaped huge gains in Gujarat whenever the opposition mounted a personal attack against him. The opposition abuses only helped expand Modi’s appeal. It is baffling as to why Modi and his men, who started on a promising note in Bihar, fell back on personal attacks and Pakistan.  

It would have been prudent had the BJP and its leaders restricted the campaign to local issues of development, corruption, law and order, and the opportunistic alliance between foes-turned-friends Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav. The political mudslinging and calling names against each other have denigrated the campaigning to pathetic low levels. But that is how elections are fought and won in India. And nobody knows it better than the Modi-Shah duo!