PAKISTAN CHICKENS OUT OF TALKS ON FLIMSY GROUNDS

By Vikas Khanna

A nervous Pakistan, fearing embarrassment, made desperate efforts to stonewall the fledgling talks, before pulling out on rickety grounds. That the talks would be a non-starter was known the day Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif returned home after signing the Ufa Agreement with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in Russia. The howl of protests that greeted him from both within his government and outside made Sharif’s position untenable as Pakistanis were incensed that the disputed Kashmir was kept out of the framework of the talks agenda. Little did Sharif realize that he had committed political hara-kiri in his own country by excluding Kashmir from talks which were designed to centre on terror and peace along the disputed line of control before a structured dialogue could be resumed between the two countries!

Sharif and his security advisor Sartaj Aziz, who was also part of the deliberations in Ufa, cut a sorry figure as Pakistani army and the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) flagged red lines to them for omitting the “K” word. It was apparent that the agreement was reached without the consent of Pakistani army and ISI.  The two agencies, which together have built a network of jehadi forces across Kashmir and Afghanistan, stood to be shamed had the two countries zeroed in on “only terror talks”. Armed with a pile of irrefutable evidences of Pakistani agencies’ involvement in syndicate crimes and terrorism, India could have put Sartaj Aziz on the mat had he dared to come to New Delhi.


And thus started the “Scuttle Talks Operation”. All attempts were made to scupper talks by irritating and instigating India as Pakistani forces launched renewed and heavy firing on the line of control targeting civilians, causing a huge outcry. With India deciding to answer back in equal measure on the frontiers and refusing to be cowed down into calling off talks, Pakistan uncorked its second armoury in the form of fidayeens, who launched audacious attacks on security establishments leading to massive protests. Pressure was mounting on the Modi government to call off talks. But the government, sensing Pakistan’s evil designs, withstood the domestic pressure and decided to continue with talks. That was the last straw.


With all its tactics falling apart, the Pakistani establishment, read Pakistan army, decided to make Sartaj Aziz the villain who was forced to mis-interpret the Ufa statement. It was shocking to see the veteran politician trying to pull out something, which was not part of the Ufa agreement, to force Indian hands. Aware that he was on a sticky wicket, as he himself was at the negotiating table when the Ufa agreement was signed, Aziz prophesized that the proposed talks would not yield desired results. Surprisingly, he knew the future of talks even before the start! Even if one were to believe him that the Hurriyat was one of the main stakeholders, one fails to understand how could separatists have contributed to talks which were designed to discuss terror?


Pakistan today stands exposed. Its intent was suspicious right from the beginning. Any meaningful talks are anathema to Pakistan as it is least bothered to maintain peace in the subcontinent and wants to keep the issue of Kashmir alive. To expect Pakistan to talk on terror and follow up with credible action is akin to asking for moon. Pakistan is aware of the consequences if it were to take action against the militants pampered and sheltered at its backyard. The rise of Taliban leading to the formation of its own government in Afghanistan in 1996 before it was overthrown by the American-led invasion in 2001 is a case in point. This is precisely the reason why Pakistan dreads taking action against the monsters it created.


In this entire episode, marked by uncertainty to chicanery, one feels sorry for Sharif. He has lost his face again.


The last time Sharif tried to embark on a road to peace when he invited the then Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Pakistan and scripted the Lahore Agreement on February 21, 1999. It took less than three months before General Pervez Musharraf stabbed him in his back when his forces in the garb of militants occupied the heights of Kargil leading to a brief war between the two countries. The Lahore Agreement was thus consigned to dustbin. Sixteen years later, Sharif’s second tryst with peace lies in tatters within days of the signing of the Ufa agreement as he has been back-forked again.


It is beyond doubt that any democratically-elected government in Pakistan is a mere showpiece used only during hand-shakes. It is the Pakistan army which really calls the shots.

PAKISTAN DARES INDIA TO CANCEL TALKS

By Vikas Khanna

The wily Pakistani leadership has put Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a tight spot. As things stand today, it appears that Pakistan is least bothered to carry forward the talks agenda agreed to by Modi and Nawaz Sharif in the Russian city of Ufa last month. It also puts Sharif in a poor light as it appears that he did not have the mandate of Pakistan’s powerful army and the Inter-State Intelligence (ISI) in resuming dialogue which got stalled last year after a miffed New Delhi cancelled foreign secretary level talks following Pakistan High Commissioner’s refusal to call off talks with Kashmiri separatist leaders. India had then warned Pakistan that the invitation to the so-called leaders of the Hurriyat by Pakistan’s High Commissioner raised questions about its sincerity and attempts to interfere in India’s internal affairs.


Attempts by Modi and Sharif to mend ways and kick-start the stalled talks have met with stiff opposition from Pakistan army and the ISI which together wield more powers and influence than the democratically-elected government in Islamabad. Hardly had the ink on the joint statement by India and Pakistan on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Ufa dried, that Pakistani army with the full backing of ISI launched into a mini war by repeatedly firing along the line of control dividing Kashmir. Simultaneously, it also unleashed militants trained at its backyard to resume attacks on security personnel and civilians in Kashmir and then expanding the operation to Punjab. The objective was to derail bilateral talks. Had the talks agreed to by the top leaders of the two countries progressed, it would have put paid to nefarious efforts of Pakistani army and ISI to continue with its planned infiltration attempts in Kashmir as it hardly has two months before snowfall in the higher reaches will make the infiltration impossible. 


With a pliant government in Kashmir soft on separatist elements, it suits Pakistani handlers to push in as many militants. Attempts by some disgruntled elements in Kashmir to raise Pakistani and Islamic State flags with impunity during rallies by separatist leaders must have chuckled their Pakistani masters. 


What is more perplexing is the complete silence by Pakistani leadership on the repeated ceasefire violations? Adding salt to its wounds, Pakistani High Commissioner, Abdul Basit, brazenly blamed India for 70 ceasefire violations along the disputed border when he was summoned by foreign ministry mandarins in New Delhi last week. 


The higher echelons in Pakistan dread talks at the National Security Advisors level due on August 23-24 at a time when India succeeded in capturing alive a militant who alongwith his accomplice had launched a daring attack on security personnel in Kashmir early this month. With concrete evidence pointing to arrested militant Naved’s Pakistani nationality and his father’s admission, Islamabad will find it very difficult to parrot its oft-repeated line that the insurgency in Kashmir is home-grown and that it has no role, whatsoever. With polygraph test report due anytime before the two top security experts sit for talks in New Delhi, Pakistan will find its back on the wall. Armed with such fool-proof evidence, India now plans to rally the global community to expose Pakistan’s overt and covert operations by backing insurgents in India.


With New Delhi foiling Islamabad’s designs to fall in its trap by cancelling the proposed talks, it fired another salvo today by inviting the Kashmiri separatist Hurriyat leadership for consultations at Pakistan High Commission on the same day when NSAs – Ajit Doval and Sartaj Aziz – are due to hold talks. This, Pakistan hopes, will irritate India which will again react in the same way and discontinue talks. The game plan of Pakistan is to wriggle out of the situation that it finds today. But India will do well not to wilt under pressure and instead bite the bullet. India should use the opportunity this time and talk tough with Pakistan. A crystal clear message should be delivered to Pakistan that talks and terror can’t go hand in hand. 

 
In any case, the talks would be a banal exercise as it would lead to nowhere. With Pakistan continue to be in a denial mode, it would be naïve for India to expect any breakthrough. The talks with Pakistan will remain grounded and yield no results till it withdraws its support from militants, a tough ask. Meanwhile, the Indian government should make all efforts to enlist support of maximum countries to alienate Pakistan and its so-called supporters.

MOTIVE BEHIND MYSTERIOUS BANGKOK BOMBING

COMMENTARY WRITTEN BY VIKAS KHANNA, A JOURNALIST

 

One of the worst attacks in Bangkok, dubbed as the tourist paradise of southeast Asia, threaten to revive fears of a return to political violence and instability that has troubled Thailand for more than a decade. The attack on Monday, in which at least 22 people were killed, is a major security and intelligence failure for the ruling military junta which seized power in a 2014 coup. Any further delay in unraveling the mystery behind the attack will discredit the junta, which has repeatedly failed to return the nation to democracy. Having missed a self-imposed 2015 deadline for an election and ruling out the possibility of election before 2017 is causing heartburn among the elements opposed to the ruling military.

 

It is too early to speculate who could be behind the attack as no group has claimed responsibility. But suspects are too many. Police have not ruled out the involvement of any group, including elements that are opposed to the military government. Junta chief Prayut Chan-O-Cha seemed to point fingers at the Red Shirt movement aligned to the deposed government of Yingluck Shinawatra and her self-exiled brother Thaksin Shinawatra when he said that Facebook messages warning of an imminent danger to Bangkok came from an “anti-government group”. The Shinawatras enjoy immense popularity and respect among the rural and urban poor and both the brother and sister have been prime ministers previously before they were unceremoniously ousted by the military rulers. While the love-hate relationship between the Shinawatras and the military is an open secret, it does not seem plausible that their supporters will carry out such an audacious attack on a Hindu temple to avenge their ouster or discredit the military. Such an action risks alienation from the people and may even cost the Shinawatras their political constituency. Moreover, the modus-operandi of the attack does not match the tactics of the Red Shirts who have been involved in several low-level attacks in the past, intending to cause maximum damage to the property than targeting people at such a large-scale. The preliminary investigation suggests that the attackers wanted to inflict maximum casualties as the bomb was timed when there is a heavy rush of office workers and tourists in the area. The military junta may be groping in the dark but its suspicions are heightened by recent statements by Thaksin Shinawatra who called upon his supporters to reject a new constitution that the junta plans to put before the country in a referendum. Critics have dubbed the draft as undemocratic which they say is intended to empower the military and limit the influence of elected politicians.

 

It should be recalled that Thailand has been plagued by Muslim insurgency for more than a decade where the insurgents in the south of the country bordering Malaysia have been fighting Thai rule and oppose the presence of majority Thai Buddhists in the largely Malay region. Thousands of people, mostly civilians, have died in the insurgency in which bomb attacks are common. Of late, the Muslim insurgents have expanded their network and have launched targets at Hat Yai, which is a popular destination for Malaysian tourists. Last year, more than a dozen people were injured when a series of low-intensity bombs ripped apart Hat Yai, the southern tourist town. The bombings were the second time in two years to hit Hat Yai. But the insurgents have rarely targeted Bangkok before. In fact, the army chief and deputy defence minister General Udomdej Sitabutr seemed to give a clean chit to the Muslim insurgents when in a televised interview he said the Monday’s bombing did not have the insurgents’ footprints. But they do seem to have an ulterior motive in carrying out attack on popular Buddhist or Hindu shrine to advance their broader objectives. Not only will it hurt Thailand’s economy, its tourism industry, but the reputation of the military rulers, as well.

 

Another possibility could be the involvement of ethnic Turkic-speaking and largely Muslim minority Uighurs. There has been growing anger among Uighur people after Thailand forcibly repatriated more than 100 Uighurs to China. The Uighurs vehemently oppose cultural and religious persecution by Chinese authorities. However, security experts are of the view that though there are radical elements in the Uighur movement, an attack on this scale outside China appears unlikely. But China’s claims that more than 100 ethnic Uighurs deported from Thailand had been on their way to Turkey, Syria or Iraq to wage holy war can’t be brushed aside. And if China’s assertions are true, then it should ring alarm bells.